December 30, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 30, 2008 Featured trades: (MS), (GS), (WM), (BS), (FNM), (FRE), (AIG), ($GOLD), (WTIC) I thought I would resend you the market forecasts I sent a year ago, in case you missed them. 1) A young black guy you never hear of, whose middle name is Hussein, will be elected President in a landslide, trouncing Hillary Clinton. 2) The Dow … [Read more...]

December 29, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 29, 2008 Featured trades: (TM), (GM) 1) Employment consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas see the worst jobs market since the Great Depression in 2009. We have lost 732,000 jobs since November, and another one million are to go during the first half of next year. There are now 2.2 million workers who have been looking for jobs for … [Read more...]

December 24, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 24, 2008 Featured trades: (PLD), (WTIC) 1) Consumers slashed spending 0.6% in November, despite rapidly falling prices. Unemployment claims jumped 30,000 to 586,000, a 14 year high. National savings rates are soaring from zero to 5%, as baby boomers rush to rebuild seriously depleted nest eggs going into a feared Depression. . It seems … [Read more...]

Global Market Comments for December 23, 2008

1)Existing home sales plunged 8.6% in November to 4.49 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median sales price fell by the largest amount on record, plunging 13.2% in November to $181,300, from $208,000 a year ago. That was the lowest price since February 2004 and the biggest year-over-year drop since the index began in 1968. If anyone tells you the … [Read more...]

December 22, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 22, 2008 Featured trades: (SKS), (WMT), (TGT), (JWN) 1) Traders were expecting a Santa Rally today and got a Grinch instead, with a three digit decline in the Dow. Markets were buzzing about a piece on the front page of the Wall Street Journal today announcing the impending demise of the commercial real estate market. More than $160 … [Read more...]

December 19, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 19, 2008 Featured trades: (UAUA), (LUV), ($XJY) 1) Detroit gets $17.4 billion in life support, and the markets go to sleep. It's a Band-Aid over a stab wound through the heart. Industry analysts figure the real cost of a desperately needed ground up remake of Detroit is closer to $125 billion. Toyota announced its first loss in its 71 … [Read more...]

December 18, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 18, 2008 Featured trades: (VIX) 1) Weekly jobless claims fell slightly to 554,000, while continuing claims stayed at a very high 4.38 million. While the 'official' unemployment rate is only 6.8%, the real rate is almost certainly into double digits now because these figures don't include people who have run out their … [Read more...]

December 17, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 17, 2008 Featured trades: ($BSE), (TBT), (BAC), WFC), (AMGN), (XOM), (MS), (COF), (VLO), (DRYS) 1) The big trade to make in 2009 will be to dump your safe assets, and pour into risky ones. That is what zero interest rates are telling you to do. Throw in the fact that global shipping is now essentially free, and fuel is free compared to … [Read more...]

December 16, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 16, 2008 Featured trades: (GM), (GS) 1) The Consumer Price Index fell by 1.7% in November, the biggest drop since records began in 1947. New housing starts plunged to an annual rate of only 625,000, an all time low. The replacement rate is 1.2 million units. This helped force the Fed to cut rates by 1% to zero, a historic low. Traders … [Read more...]

December 15, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 15, 2008 Featured trades: (GM), (BAC), (WFC) 1) Yet another weekend of investors furiously paging through IRA's, 401k's, and brokerage statements, struggling to learn if they have been wiped out. The stunning revelations about Bernard L. Madhoff Security Investments, LLC's $50 billion Ponzi scheme, which decimated a good … [Read more...]

December 12, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 12, 2008 Featured trades: ($RTSI), (GM), (F) 1) It looks like the Senate's unequivocal refusal to bail out the Big Three is forcing Paulson to redefine the TARP mission yet again. There are just too many parts suppliers in battle ground state Ohio to think otherwise, even though the bailout is diametrically opposed to administration … [Read more...]

December 11, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 11, 2008 Featured trades: (BA), ($WTIC), ($GOLD), ($XEU) 1) Weekly jobless claims soared by 58,000 to 573,000, a 26 year high. A lot of workers came back from their Thanksgiving turkey only to get fired. According to UCLA's Anderson report, unemployment in California will peak at 8.7% next year. This may be conservative. 2) The … [Read more...]

December 10, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 10, 2008 Featured trades: (GM), (F), (NYT) 1) The global financial crisis is evolving into a global consumer spending crisis, which is much more difficult to fix. In 2007, 85% of home mortgages were securitized in markets that ar closed. Now just five banks are extending two thirds of new mortgages, and their originations are down 50% … [Read more...]

December 9, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 9, 2008 Featured trades: (VLCCF), (NYX), (NDAQ), (CME), (ICE), (SYMC), (CHKP), (LFP) 1) The stock market is up nine out of the last 12 trading days, and the Dow is up 1,000 from the post jobs report Friday low. The worst financial crisis in 70 years is being met head on by the biggest reflationary effort in history, and reflation is … [Read more...]

December 8, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 8, 2008 Featured trades: (HYG), ($WTIC) 1) The November nonfarm payroll came in at a breathtaking 533,000, almost double the worst case forecast, goosing the unemployment rate up to 6.7%, a 15 year high. The September figure was revised down from minus -283,000 to a gut wrenching minus -403,000, meaning that the economy has lost -936,000 … [Read more...]

December 4, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 4, 2008 Featured trades: (VIX), ($GOLD), ($SPX), (BAC), (DD), (T) 1) The relentless drumbeat of layoffs continues. United at SFO 500, DuPont (DD) 2,500, AT & T (T) 1,200, and Bank of America 30,000! Many of the BAC cuts will be at its newly acquired Merrill Lynch subsidiary. If the Big Three auto makers go under, add another two … [Read more...]

December 3, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 3, 2008 Featured trades: (DRYS) (BDI), (FCX) 1) The ISM non manufacturer's index for November came in at 37.3, down from 44.4. This number is so solidly recessionary, it is almost unbelievable. 2) The stock market looks like the North Atlantic just after the Titanic went down. Dead bodies are floating everywhere, equipped with … [Read more...]

December 2, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 2, 2008 Featured trades: (POT), (MOS), (AGU), ($NIKKEI), (GM) 1) It's official. We are in a recession. And the great news is that we have been in a recession since December, 2007, as I suspected all along. This means that we are 13 months into a postwar recession that averages 14 months. To match the longest postwar recession we would … [Read more...]

December 1, 2008

Global Market Comments for December 1, 2008 Featured trades: (WTIC) 1) The good news is that the Black Friday retail sales figures came in better than expected, up 7% according to some surveys. The bad news is that designer goods were sold at flea market prices, jumbo flat screen TV's were given away for half, and that all of the stores slashing prices were losing … [Read more...]