April 12, 2010 – Here is the World’s Worst Population Pyramid

Featured Trades: (EEM), (VNM)

2) Here is the World's Worst Population Pyramid. Now look at the world's worst population pyramid, that for Japan. These graphs show that a nearly perfect pyramid drove a miracle stock market during the fifties and sixties which I remember well, when Japan had your textbook high growth emerging market economy. That changed dramatically when the population started to age rapidly during the nineties. The 2007 graph is shouting at you not to go near the Land of the Rising Sun, and the 2050 projection tells you why. By then, a small young population of consumers with a very low birth rate will be supporting the backbreaking burden of a huge population of old age pensioners. Every two wage earners will be supporting one retiree. Think low GDP growth, huge government borrowing, deflation, and a terrible stock and housing markets. If you are wondering why I am aggressively shorting the yen right now, this is a big reason. Dodge the bullet.

USCBJapan-2.gif picture by madhedge