I’m Heading Off to Europe


My tuxes are packed, the hotels are booked, and the limo is waiting outside. The Lear jet is fully fueled up and waiting for me at nearby Buchanan Field, the flight plan already filed. I am taking off for Europe today for a mix of business and pleasure. Along the way I will be meeting with other hedge fund managers, senior government officials, CEO’s at major banks and … [Read more...]

Be Careful Who You Snitch On


Buried in the recently passed Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are massive financial rewards for turning in your crooked boss. The SEC is hoping that multimillion dollar rewards amounting to 10%-30% of sanction amounts will drive a stampede of whistleblowers to their doors with evidence of malfeasance and fraud by their employers. If such rules were in place at the time of … [Read more...]

June 28, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“If there were no way to short stocks, the probability of stock market bubbles would be much greater,” said hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, of Pershing Square. … [Read more...]

Obama’s Unintended Oil Consequences


Back in March, oil broke the $110/barrel level and gasoline was rapidly approaching the $5/gallon level, threatening to derail Obama’s reelection campaign. The administration enlisted Europe to join it in a boycott of Iranian oil in an effort to get the Islamic republic to retreat from is program to develop a nuclear weapon. Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, responded by … [Read more...]

My Update on India


The great thing about running an online newsletter is that it is not only self-correcting, it is self-enhancing. Whenever I make a mistake or state a factual error, my inbox catches on fire when corrections, additional data, and chastisements. Ditto when I exclude some key points to bolster my own arguments. So I thought I would publish a letter I received from a reader from … [Read more...]

June 27, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“The number one performing stock market of the past ten years in nominal terms has been Zimbabwe. But if you bought equities there you lost all your money because the ZWD$3 trillion you made now buys you three eggs,” said Kyle Bass of hedge fund, Hyman Capital. … [Read more...]

Sold Out! Last Chance to Attend the Chicago Strategy Luncheon This Friday, June 29th!!

© 1999 EyeWire, Inc.

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, June 29, 2012. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. … [Read more...]

India is Catching Up With China


When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate. My friends at the International Monetary Fund … [Read more...]

A Conversation With the Boots on the Ground


I have spent many hours speaking at length with the generals who are running our wars in the Middle East, like David Petraeus, and James E. Cartwright. To get the boots on the ground view, I attended the graduation of a friend at the Defense Language Institute in Monterey, California, the world's preeminent language training facility. As I circulated at the reception at the … [Read more...]

June 26, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“Take 200 round trips to Australia, and you really start to rack up the miles,” said Tom Stoker, and automotive sales analyst who just surpassed 10 million frequent flier points on United Airlines. It makes my own 1 million miles seen puny by comparison.   … [Read more...]

Why I Am Chopping My US GDP Forecast to 1.5%


For the past two years, I have maintained a GDP growth forecast for the US of 2% a year. I have not stuck with this figure because I am stubborn, obstinate, or too lazy to update my analysis of the future of the world’s largest economy. I have kept this number nailed to the mast because it has been right. I have watched other far more august institution with vastly more … [Read more...]

June 25, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“For the president to not focus on the financial industry in the wake of a financial crisis, he would have to be blind,” said former Federal Reserve governor, Paul Volker … [Read more...]

Here’s Your Second Chance to Sell in May


It was 3:30 am when one of my old staffers from Morgan Stanley in London called. He was now running a proprietary trading desk at Goldman Sachs, and I didn’t think he was rousing me out of a dead sleep to reminisce about the good old days. He told me that the firm’s research department was issuing a call to sell the S&P 500 up here at 1,360 immediately and they were calling … [Read more...]

Get Your New Global Trading Dispatch Password


Paid up subscribers to Global Trading Dispatch and the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader newsletter are entitled to a password that gives them access to my premium content. Without it you will be unable to access the best parts of the new website, including my daily real time trading portfolio, trade alert tutorial and user’s manual, my Review of 2011, 2012 Outlook, and live … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Blasts to New All Time High


Global Trading Dispatch’s Trade Alert Service posted a new all-time high yesterday, clocking a 48% return since inception. That takes the average annualized return up to 30.3%, ranking it among the top five performing hedge funds in the world. Those happy subscribers who bought my service in early May reaped an instant 35% profit following my advice. I really nailed the top … [Read more...]

No Fed Action Disappoints QE Bulls


It’s always nice when intelligent people agree with you. That was my feeling after the Federal Reserve gave notice today that it was downgrading its forecast of US economic growth for 2012 from 2.6% to 2.15%. That is a major step down from the 3% and higher predictions they were hanging on to earlier. The news came in the written statement that followed the Fed’s somewhat … [Read more...]

A Day in the Life of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader


Diary Entry for Monday, June 18, 2012 Dear Diary, 4:30 PM Sunday- Looks like my Monday is going to start early this week. One of my Athens readers e-mailed me that New Democracy was a slam dunk to win the election and would form a right of center, pro bailout, pro Euro (FXE) coalition government. Looks like it is going to mean a “RISK ON” week. US Treasuries nosedive … [Read more...]

June 20, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“Now, you are starting to see people front run hedge fund books. People are front running John Paulson’s book. Everybody can see this. People are starting to line up the ducks and ask which hedge funds are going to have redemptions. Which position should I get in front of? Gold is a big problem in that environment. Guess what? The biggest position in the hedge fund community is … [Read more...]

Gold is Making a Comeback


One of my best calls of the year was to plead with readers to avoid gold like the plague, periodically dipping in on the short side only. The barbarous relic has been in a bear market since it peaked at $1,922 an ounce at the end of August last year. Gold shares have fared much worse, with lead stock Barrack Gold (ABX) dropping 36% since then and the gold miners ETF (GDX) … [Read more...]

Greek Conservative Win Sends Shorts Fleeing


The victory of the centrist pro bailout New Democracy Party in the Sunday Greek elections sparked a furious rally in the overnight Asian markets, much of it driven by hedge fund short covering. The socialist, anti-bailout parties went down in flames. As I write this on Sunday night, the Dow futures are trading up 78 points from the Friday close and the Japanese yen is in … [Read more...]

The New Deflation Definition


It seems that all you hear about these days is deflation. That is certainly what the bond market is telling us, with my screen blaring at me a miserable 1.58% yield for the ten year Treasury bond. But there is a new definition for this economic malady that applies to we hapless consumers. In the new deflation, the value of our income falls, while the prices of things we need … [Read more...]

June 18, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“For the last 20 days, I feel like I have played psychologist more than I have played money manager,” said financial talk show host, Kyle Harrington. … [Read more...]

Be Careful What You Wish For


The wild whipsaw movements in the markets on Thursday reminded us once again how dependent they have become on monetary stimulus from central banks. As if we needed reminding. Almost simultaneously, officials from the US, Japan and the UK hinted at a coordinated move at this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Let’s hope for the sake of global financial … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the June 20 Global Strategy Webinar


My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, June 20 at 12:00 noon EST. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take positions. I will also be opining … [Read more...]

June 15, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“This is not 2008 or 2009. People are getting overblown with this hysteria. We are only 10% off the highs and have only given back gains. It’s like your wife may have been expecting diamond earrings and now she got a blender,” said Alan Knuckman, chief trading advisor at onestopoption.com. … [Read more...]

The Nationalization of the Bond Market


I was as stunned as anyone when the yield on the ten year Treasury bond (TLT), (TBT) plummeted to 1.42% two weeks ago. Predictions that long dated government paper would reach subterranean Japanese levels, considered loony as recently as a few months ago, are now donning the mantle of respectability, and even plausibility. Where will this end? With yields at 1.25%, 1%? … [Read more...]

Revisiting the First Silver Bubble


With smoke still rising from the ruins of the recent silver crash, I thought I’d touch base with a wizened and grizzled old veteran who still remembered the last time a bubble popped for the white metal. That would be Mike Robertson, who runs Robertson Wealth Management, one of the largest and most successful registered investment advisors in the country (click here for his … [Read more...]

June 14, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“For Europe to be competitive, to reflect the seizing up of the economy, you need a Euro that is at par or lower,” said John Brynjolfson, managing director of hedge fund Armored Wolf … [Read more...]

How to Avoid Ponzi Schemes


I spent a sad and depressing, but highly instructional evening with Dr. Stephen Greenspan, who lost most of his personal fortune with Bernie Madoff. The University of Connecticut psychology professor poured the bulk of his savings into Sandra Mansky’s Tremont feeder fund; receiving convincing trade confirms and rock solid custody statements from the Bank of New York. This is … [Read more...]

Shenanigans in Switzerland


Since I am an avid collector of investment scam stories, I’ve got to update you on what’s been coming out of Switzerland. Two Japanese nationals were caught smuggling $134 billion in US Treasury bonds from Switzerland to Italy in a false bottom suitcase. No, that is not a typo, that is “b” for billion. The two were mysteriously let go the next day. The blogosphere is … [Read more...]

An Evening With Bill Gates, Sr


I had a chat with Bill Gates, Sr. last night, co-chairman of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the world’s largest private philanthropic organization. There, a staff of 800 help him manage $30 billion. The foundation will give away $3.1 billion this year, a 10% increase over last year. Some $1.5 billion will go to emerging nation health care, and another $750 million to … [Read more...]

June 12, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“At some point in 2012, knuckles are going to be turning white, and we’ll see whatever rabbits Ben Bernanke is going to have to pull out of his hat”, said David Rosenberg of Gluskin, Sheff in Associates … [Read more...]

The One Bright Spot in Real Estate


After my regular dump on residential real estate, I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this beleaguered market that might actually make sense. By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and that of the US from 300 million to 400 million, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and the CIA fact Book (check out the population … [Read more...]

The Ultra Bull Argument for Gold


I am constantly barraged with emails from gold bugs who passionately argue that their beloved metal is trading at a tiny fraction of its true value, and that the barbaric relic is really worth $5,000, $10,000, or even $50,000 an ounce (GLD). They claim the move in the yellow metal we saw in recent years is only the beginning of a 30 fold rise in prices similar to what occurred … [Read more...]

An Evening With Hillary Clinton


When Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton passed through San Francisco last week I jumped at the chance to get an up to date overview on American foreign policy. The former first lady was making a brief San Francisco stop on her way to meet leaders on an extended Asian tour. She showed up wearing one of her trademark charcoal pantsuits and a subdued gold necklace, her … [Read more...]

June 11, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“If there were no way to short stocks, the probability of stock market bubbles would be much greater,” said hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, of Pershing Square. … [Read more...]

The Next China Boom


The call was scratchy and barely audible. I was instructed to not mention any names. I should only use the prearranged code words when talking about political parties. You never know when the phones in China are tapped. I was just about to get a heads up that the People’s Bank of China was going to lower interest rates for the first time in four years. Of course, we knew … [Read more...]

Sold Out! Come Join Me For The Beverly Hills June 11, 2012 Strategy Seminar!


Come join me for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in Beverly Hills at 2:00 PM on Monday, June 11, 2012. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee and snacks will be made available, but no food. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, … [Read more...]

Ben Bernanke Will Say Nothing on Thursday


All eyes will be focused on Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, on Thursday looking for any hints that further quantitative easing is on the way. Don’t get your hopes up. I don’t expect the esteemed former Princeton professor to conveniently tip his hand. At the most he might make a reference to “keeping all options open,” and that is it. The Fed’s Beige Book was … [Read more...]

The Mystery of the Government Windfall


I heard a fascinating story from my friends at the US Treasury the other day. Even though unemployment is high, personal tax refunds were plummeting and tax revenues were soaring. What was even more puzzling was that the states with the worst unemployment rates, like California, Nevada, and Florida were seeing the heftiest increases. Weren’t elevated jobless rates supposed to … [Read more...]

June 7, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“China has more dry gunpowder than just about anyone in the world. But it now looks like the soft landing is turning into a hard landing,” said John Brynjolfson, managing director of hedge fund Armored Wolf. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the June 6 Global Strategy Webinar


My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, June 6 at 12:00 noon EST. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take positions. I will also be opining on … [Read more...]

Reach for Yield With Master Limited Partnerships


The dramatic collapse in the price of oil is creating a rare opportunity to get into some of the highest yielding paper in the financial markets, master limited partnerships (MLP)’s. These are LP’s that are publicly traded on a securities exchanges. These unique and versatile instruments combine the tax benefits of a limited partnership with the liquidity of publicly traded … [Read more...]

Watch the ‘Grapes of Wrath’ Replay in California


It’s another sign of the times when the weekend fruit picker population is doubled by people hard hit by the economy, looking to save money on food costs. After driving through miles of undulating brown hills studded with oak trees, passing mile upon mile of horse ranches, rusted out cars, and abandoned mobile homes, you come to bucolic Brentwood, the fruit capital of … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Racks up Record 20.5% Month in May


The Mad hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service posted a 20.5% gain in May, the best monthly performance since its 2010 inception. The 28 trade alerts I sent out during the month also set a new record. That takes the average annualized return up to 22.8%. During the same period, the S&P 500 gained a paltry 10%. This was in a month rated one of the third or fourth most … [Read more...]

Tea With Nancy Pelosi


Walking through the Capital dome on my way to the House the Representatives, I couldn’t help but sense the presence of ghosts of friends from decades past. There was Tip O’Neill with his ever-present scowl. Ted Kennedy was hurrying off to another meeting, barking orders in his peculiar Boston accent. Mike Mansfield was maintaining his ever aloof and professorial … [Read more...]

June 5, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“From day one the euro has not really worked. The problem is that it is creating a huge degree of lack of competitiveness because their culture is different,” said former Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan. … [Read more...]

Nonfarm Bombshell Sends Markets Scampering


Say goodbye to 2012. That was the harsh conclusion of the marketplace after the release of the devastating May nonfarm report that forced the Dow to give up its entire year to date performance. The cat was really set among the pigeons this morning when the Department of Labor informed us that only 69,000 jobs were gained in the previous month. The unemployment rate ratcheted … [Read more...]

June 4, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“I will believe that corporations are people only when the states of Texas and Alabama start executing them,” said former Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich. … [Read more...]

Are We Probing a Bottom With Housing?


The March Case Shiller Home Price Index is out, showing that the fall in home prices continues unabated, paring -2.6% on a YOY basis. Detroit delivered the biggest drop, down a shocking -4.4%, followed by Chicago (-2.5%), and Atlanta (-0.9%). But 14 out of 20 markets managed increases in prices. The national index is still declining, but at a slower rate. Given that this … [Read more...]

Dinner With Labor Secretary Robert Reich


I never resist a dinner invitation from Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich. A Rhodes Scholar who dated Hillary Clinton at Yale, he unsuccessfully ran for governor of Massachusetts against Mitt Romney, and authored 13 books. Bob is never without an original thought, nor a stranger to controversy. Today he didn’t disappoint. On top of that, he is about the funniest … [Read more...]

June 1, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“If there is no monetary stimulus and no fiscal stimulus, obviously we are going to continue to grow slowly. We could be in secularly slow growth for decades,” said Harvard economics professor, Ken Rogoff.     … [Read more...]

My Tactical View of the Market


The abject failure of the equity indexes to breach even the first line of upside resistance does not bode well for the “RISK ON” trade at all. Only a week ago I predicted that the markets would be challenged to top 1,340 in the (SPX) and $78 for the Russell 2000 (IWM). In fact, we made it up only to 1,335 and $77.90 respectively. To see the melt down resume ahead of the … [Read more...]

May 31, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“What’s going on with Facebook? We had better IPO standards when Don Draper was on the scene,” said Sallie Krawcheck, former head of wealth management at Merrill Lynch. … [Read more...]

Apple Redux


The news out this morning that Apple (AAPL) may launch its HD television product in time for the Christmas holidays caused a nice pop in the stock this morning, so I thought I would quickly review the fundamental case behind owning the company. The story originated from rumors in China that its main manufacturer, Foxcon, had already placed orders for key component parts. It … [Read more...]

Time to Buy JP Morgan


This is far and away the world’s premier banking institution. Estimates of the huge trading losses by the London “whale”, initially pegged at $2 billion, have since skyrocketed to $6 billion. I’ll ignore the Internet rumors that speculate about a $30 billion hickey. As you well know, almost everything on the net is not true, except what you read in my own newsletter. Back in … [Read more...]

What Hot…and Not


My friend, Tom Dorsey of the technical research boutique Dorsey Wright, inundates me daily with a never ending stream of market sensitive data which has been helping me make some of my more successful market calls. For example, when the S & P 500 hundred broke 1,380 in April, he completely nailed the 1,280 bottom in the current move. So, I thought I’d pass on the asset … [Read more...]

Playing at the Deep End With the Euro


I never wanted to join any club that would have me as a member. That is the little nugget of wisdom comedian Groucho Marx imparted to me during his visit to the UCLA campus 40 years ago. It is also what came to mind when I saw the shocking Commitment of Traders Report for Euro futures that came out last Friday. Short positions in the beleaguered European currency soared to … [Read more...]

May 29, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“Europe has been diagnosed with cancer and they are attempting to treat it with massage, yoga, and carrot juice. If they go into recession, that affects us,” said Michael Farr of Farr, Miller, & Washington. … [Read more...]

My Tactical View of the Market


The easy money has been made on the short side this year for a whole range of asset classes. While we will probably see lower lows from here, the risk/reward ratio for taking short positions in (SPX), (IWM), (FXE), (FXY), (GLD), (SLV), (USO), and (CU) are less favorable than they were two months ago. Of course, the ultimate arbiter will be the news play and the economic data … [Read more...]

Get Your New Global Trading Dispatch Password


Paid up subscribers to Global Trading Dispatch and the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader newsletter are entitled to a password that gives them access to my premium content. Without it you will be unable to access the best parts of the new website, including my daily real time trading portfolio, trade alert tutorial and user’s manual, my Review of 2011, 2012 Outlook, and live … [Read more...]

May 25, 2012 – Quote of the Day

champagne party guy

“I would love it if they only allowed me and a whole bunch of psychotic drunks to trade in stocks. I would get very rich,” said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, about the European debt crisis. … [Read more...]

Dinner With Nobel Prize Winner Paul Krugman


The first thing I noticed when Paul walked in was the few extra pounds and silvery tinge to his hair he acquired since I saw him last. He’s clearly spending too much time behind a computer writing those acidic columns for the New York Times. We’re all short dated options in the end, I thought. We met at my favorite San Francisco restaurant, Gary Danko’s (click here for their … [Read more...]

Japan Downgrade Sends Yen Reeling


The next step has been taken in the coming Japan crisis. American ratings agency, Fitch, has downgraded Japanese government debt to A+, with a negative outlook. The move cut the knees out from under the country’s dubious currency, sending it down sharply. Fitch expects the country’s debt to reach a nosebleeding 240% of GDP by year end, far and away the largest of any major … [Read more...]

Why My Boeing Trade Crashed and Burned


This trade was an unmitigated disaster, and hopefully it will be the worst of the year. I’m glad we had one of these because it provides a wonderful opportunity to illustrate everything that can go on with a trade. Every loss is a learning opportunity, and a loss not learned from is an opportunity wasted, and dooms one to repetition. Let me count the ways: 1) I was too … [Read more...]

May 23, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“Transparency is a good idea. Like my shower door, it lets in the light, but keeps out the flies,” said former Federal Reserve governor, Bob McTeer. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the May 23 Global Strategy Webinar


My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, May 23 at 12:00 noon EST. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take positions. I will also be opining on … [Read more...]

Facebook Flop Frustrates Ferocious Fans


This had to be one of the greatest change of life weekends in human history, endured by one Mark Zuckerberg. On Friday, he earned $9.2 billion with the flawed Facebook (FB) flotation. On Saturday, he married a Chinese doctor and longtime girlfriend, Pricilla Chan. Then on Monday, oops honey, I lost $1.2 billion. Talk about a rocky start! Never mind that the precise timing was … [Read more...]



Holy Cow! Somehow I missed the May 4 trade alert about selling the (GLD) June $160 puts at $3.40 -- guess I didn't scroll up far enough on the ol' iPhone and only saw the alerts about (FXY) and (FXE) that day. And how happy am I that this happened, keeping me in the (GLD) puts until this morning, when I sold them at $11.15? VERY VERY HAPPY! While I was enjoying seeing the … [Read more...]

May 22, 2012 – Quote of the Day


In 1933, a supporter told Franklin Delano Roosevelt that if the New Deal succeeded, he would be remembered as the greatest president in history. He replied, “If I fail, I will be remembered as the last US president.” … [Read more...]

I Told You to Buy Mongolia!


The global resource frenzy has grown so heated that money has begun pouring into the marginal fringes of the universe. The Mongolian stock market has been one of the world’s best performers over the last three years, posting two back to back 100% gains. I have been pounding the table on Mongolia for over three years now, as the fundamentals were stacking up nicely for it to … [Read more...]

Wal-Mart Is on Safari for Customers in South Africa


It looks like the next ‘blue light special’ will be offered in South Africa (EZA), (AFK) Apparently, the retail giant, Wal-Mart (WMT), got the memo that the country is a great place to invest (click here for ‘On Safari for Trades in South Africa’). It’s $4.3billion bid for retailer Massmart is a huge vote of confidence for that emerging nation. My old friend, Carl Van Horn, … [Read more...]

Dr. Paul Ehrlich on the Population Bomb


Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world’s food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN), soybeans (SOYB), and rice. The never dull, and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects … [Read more...]

May 21, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“Each politician pursues self-interest while the common cause imperceptibly decays,” lamented the Greek philosopher and historian, Thucydides. … [Read more...]

The Long View on Emerging Markets


I managed to catch a few comments in the distinct northern accent of Jim O'Neil, the fabled analyst who invented the 'BRIC' term, and who has been kicked upstairs to the chairman's seat at Goldman Sachs International (GS) in London. Jim thinks that it is still the early days for the space, and that these countries have another ten years of high growth ahead of them. As I … [Read more...]

The ‘Friday-Monday Effect’ Exposed


Dennis Gartman, of the ever interesting The Gartman Letter, published an interesting analysis on the 'Monday-Friday' effect. If you bought every Friday close last year and sold the Monday close, your return would have been 14.20%, versus a 0.42% return on the S&P 500 (SPX). Virtually all the gains would accrue at the Monday morning gap opening. If you did the reverse, … [Read more...]

A Chat With Bill Clinton


I opened the e-mail at my usual wake up time of 4:00 am. President Bill Clinton was playing with Tiger Woods at the Presidents’ Cup PGA tournament at the Harding Park Golf Course in San Francisco today. Would I have time for a chat about US economic policy afterwards? That afternoon, in walked Bill, sunburned from his morning on the links, to chew the fat with some Bay Area … [Read more...]

May 18, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“The one thing that is not safe is the dollar in your pocket. That is certainly going to be worth a lot less over time. The greatest asset to own is your own ability,” said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, about the European debt crisis. … [Read more...]

Risk Reduction Alert


For those who wisely ignored my advice to sell the SPDR Gold Trust Shares ETF (GLD) June $160 Puts on May 3, good for you. The options are now trading at $10.50 and you have a profit of 147%, adding 14.7% to your annual return. This will no doubt be your home run trade of the year. If you still have these, it is time to give thanks for your good fortune and head for the … [Read more...]

A Conversation With Charles Nenner

Volunteers clear the ice on the route of the intended Elfstedento

  I managed to catch my longtime friend, technical analyst, Charles Nenner, on the fly between London appointments yesterday. The must go to guy for big hedge funds, family offices, sovereign wealth funds, and high net worth individuals, says that the global markets are on the verge of completing round one of a major risk off trade, and there is much more to come. A … [Read more...]

May 17, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“For every one book written about deflation there are 25 written about inflation. We are starting to look more like Japan every day,” said Scott Shellady at Bradford Capital Management. … [Read more...]

Charts Are Breaking Down All Over


They say a picture is worth a 1,000 words, so here are 4,000 words worth. My friends at www.stockcharts.com put together this series of charts establishing beyond any reasonable doubt that the “RISK ON” trade is breaking down across all asset classes. Everything is breaking down, simultaneously and in unison, including the S&P 500 (SPX), Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), Oil … [Read more...]

The Energy Revolution on Our Doorstep


A major plank in my golden age scenario for the 2020’s is the collapse of the cost of energy. This won’t occur because of a single big discovery, but from a 1,000 small ones that aggregate together to create a leveraged effect. The upshot is that we may be free of OPEC in 3-5 years, and completely energy independent not long after that. The impact on financial markets and … [Read more...]

May 16, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world. The unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man” said George Bernard Shaw, an early 20th century writer and philosopher. … [Read more...]

Strong Dollar Spells Death for Commodities


Panic is on deck, to use the baseball terminology that my foreign readers are often attempting to decipher. That is the only conclusion one can reach after getting gob smacked by the price action this morning. Copper got spanked for eight cents, oil burned $2, gold shed another $26, and silver puked 70 cents. The tantrum like stock behavior in producing and equipment … [Read more...]

ETF Scam of the Week


When I heard that the managers of exchange traded funds were raking in huge fees from lending out shares in their index portfolios I thought “That’s great, the managers are really working hard to maximize returns for their shareholders.” These shares are borrowed by hedge funds which then then sell short. Then I found out the ugly truth. I was horrified to learn recently … [Read more...]

The Zhanjiang Kids Organization


I follow a broad range of unconventional, but highly useful leading economic indicators that gives me a decisive edge when predicting the future direction of global financial markets. One of them has started flashing a warning sign. I fund an orphanage in remote Zhanjiang, in China’s southern Guangdong province near Hainan Island called The Zhanjiang Kids Organization that … [Read more...]

The Tip of the Iceberg


JP Morgan (JPM) just gave us the preview of the next financial crisis. A surprise, hidden $2 billion trading loss in esoteric foreign derivatives at on offshore branch by America’s premier bank is exactly what the markets did not want to hear right now. The London whale has beached itself. Although no one has mentioned this, these are exactly the same sort of securities that … [Read more...]

May 14, 2012 – Quote of the Day


“Republicans and Democrats won’t engage in any kind of austerity because there is no consequence for the fiscal profligacy they are allowing today. With the Fed taking 60% of the Treasury’s bond issuance they are pulling the policeman off of the freeway so everyone can keep speeding. Until the bond market moves, you are not going to see a change in the current fiscal … [Read more...]

Special Note to Australian Readers


Readers of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader down under are welcome to join the online “Secure the Future” conference which I will be participating in through the miracle of the Internet. My friend, Greg Owen, created this organization to educate investors in the opportunities available in international markets by bringing in industry veterans like myself. I will be making … [Read more...]