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August 9, 2011 – Why I’ve Been Wrong About the Market

Featured Trades: (WHY I’VE BEEN WRONG ON THE MARKET), (SPX) 3) Why I’ve Been Wrong About the Market. On Friday I was fairly convinced that we are close to a bottom in the market at 1,166. As I write this the next day, I am staring at the (SPX) futures ticking down to 1,114.60. I […]

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August 8, 2011 – Buy the Sun Hats When It's Raining

Featured Trades: (BUY THE SUNHATS WHEN IT'S RAINING), (SPX) 1) Buy the Sun Hats When It's Raining. I don't think that we are going into recession immediately. I believe that we can eke out a few more quarters of 2% ish type growth before we put in the final top of the great bull market […]

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August 8, 2011 – RIP for America's Triple A Rating

Featured Trades: (RIP FOR AMERICA'S TRIPPLE A RATING), (TLT), (TBT) 2) RIP for America's Triple A Rating. At long last, after months of warnings, leaks, hand wringing, and speculation, Standard and Poor's has at last downgraded US Treasury bonds a notch to AA+. The change was the most telegraphed ratings change in history. You can […]

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August 8, 2011 – The July Nonfarm Payroll: Rocketing Back Up to Zero

Featured Trades: (THE JULY NONFARM PAYROLL: ROCKETING BACK UP TO ZERO) 3) The July Nonfarm Payroll: Rocketing Back Up to Zero. The monthly nonfarm payroll report finally surprised to the upside, the much watched figure coming in at +117,000, well above a consensus of +90,000. The headline unemployment rate is back down 0.1% to 9.1%. […]

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August 5, 2011 – Come to the September 16 Seattle Strategy Luncheon

Come to the September 16 Seattle Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s. Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Seattle on Friday, September 16, 2011. A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 minute PowerPoint presentation and a one hour question and answer period. […]

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August 5, 2011 – Here is Where to Watch for the Turn

Featured Trades: (HERE’S WHERE TO WATCH FOR THE TURN), (GLD), (FXF), (FXY), (TLT) 1) Here is Where to Watch for the Turn. What to say about Thursday’s market? The ‘RISK OFF’ trade had its finest hour. The Dow average WAS down 512 points, NASDAQ (QQQ) cratered by 135 points, oil (USO) was off $6, and […]

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August 5, 2011 – Report From Europe, Part V

Featured Trades: (REPORT FROM EUROPE, PART V) 2) Report From Europe, Part V. My first morning in the Swiss mountain hamlet of Zermatt, home to the Matterhorn, I was awoken by an army platoon outside my door, fully armed with fixed bayonets. No, I was not being arrested for past indiscretions in the idyllic Alpine […]

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August 4, 2011 – The Head and Shoulders Is In

Featured Trades: (THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS IS IN), (SPX), (VIX), 1) The Head and Shoulders Is In. Much of the selling that took the Dow down 265 points on Tuesday was generated by a clear 'head and shoulders top' pattern setting up on the charts. This occurs when you see three consecutive peaks on a […]

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August 4, 2011 – Do You Remember When’..?

Featured Trades: (DO YOU REMEMBER WHEN’..?), (GLD), (INDU), (USO), (FXF) 3) Do You Remember When’¦.? The stock market managed to eke out a modest 29 point gain today, the first time in nine trading days. If it had closed down a ninth day, it would have been the first time since 1978. I remember those […]

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August 4, 2011 – Quote of the Day

'This is about how long grandpa will work and grandma will live,' said CNBC commentator Steve Leesman about the debt crisis.

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August 3, 2011 – What the Markets Are Telling Us

Featured Trades: (WHAT THE MARKETS ARE TELLING US), (SPX), (TLT), (TBT) 1) What the Markets Are Telling Us. I spent the morning doing a round robin with hedge fund trader friends of mine trying to figure how we all got this so horribly wrong. I did this as the (SPX) was ticking down to 1249 […]

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August 2, 2011 – Be Careful What You Wish For

Featured Trades: (BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR) 1) Be Careful What You Wish For. Politicians are popping champagne bottles and celebrating the end of cantankerous negotiations over the debt ceiling. I say be careful what you wish for. Let me give you my quickie, back of the envelope analysis of the debt ceiling deal […]

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August 2, 2011 – The Death of the Bond Vigilantes

Featured Trades: (THE DEATH OF THE BOND VIGILANTES) 2) The Death of the Bond Vigilantes. Back in the seventies and eighties, when inflation was soaring well into double digits, the markets were regularly punished by a band of gun slinging traders known as the 'bond vigilantes.' Hard asset prices were running amuck, and there was […]

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August 2, 2011 – How to Get a Free Trip to Europe

Featured Trades: (HOW TO GET A FREE TRIP TO EUROPE)   3) How to Get a Free Trip to Europe. During my recent trip to Europe, I made another startling discovery about the woeful state of America’s 19th century health care system. I needed to get refills on my prescription drugs when I was in […]

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August 2, 2011 – Quote of the Day

'Who knew the blockbuster this year would be a horror show,' said Tony Crescenzi, market strategist and portfolio manager at bond giant, PIMCO.

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