Don’t Hold Your Breath for Residential Real Estate

Every few weeks I get a warm and fuzzy feeling when I see my old house for sale in the Wall Street Journal. I’m sure you’ve seen it. It’s the 8,500 square foot, four bedroom, seven bathroom white elephant perched on a mountain peak, with a dramatic waterfall pouring into a marble swimming pool, and […]

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The Real Estate Market in 2030

A number of analysts, and even some of those in the real estate industry, are finally coming around to the depressing conclusion that there will never be a recovery in residential real estate. Long time readers of this letter know too well that I have been hugely negative on the sector since late 2005, when […]

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July 16, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“People think that Treasury bonds are riskless, but a 100 basis point rise in interest rates leads to an 18% capital loss,” said Andrew Neale, a portfolio manager at Fogel Neale Partners.

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Don’t Miss the July 18 Global Strategy Webinar

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Tuesday, July 18 at 12:00 noon EST. This webinar will be broadcast live from Frankfurt, Germany. The Germans are pretty good at this technology stuff, so I don’t think that I’ll have any broadcast issues, although I can’t guarantee the sound quality in North Korea, Yemen, […]

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Why I Love/Hate the Oil Companies

The first thing I do when I get up every morning is to curse the oil companies as the blood sucking scourges of modern civilization. I then fall down on my knees and thank God that we have oil companies. You’ve got to love ExxonMobile (XOM). The world’s largest company announced an unbelievable $125 billion […]

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Now Made in China: The Oakland Bay Bridge

Another great American Icon is falling victim to the collapse of the country’s manufacturing industry. Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries has completed construction of the last of four steel modules for the new Oakland Bay Bridge. The pieces of this giant erector set, which weigh 5,300 tons together, will shortly begin the arduous 22 day journey […]

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July 13, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“I’m long tear gas after the Athens experience. They are going to need that tear gas in Rome and Madrid at some point,” said Steve Cortez at Veracruz Research.

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Last Chance to Come Join Me for the London Strategy Luncheon – July 16, 2012

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 16, 2012. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, […]

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Enjoy the Dollar Rally While it Lasts

Any trader will tell you the trend is your friend, and the overwhelming direction for the US dollar for the last 220 years has been down. Our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, found himself constantly embroiled in sex scandals. Take a ten dollar bill out of your wallet and you’re looking at a world class […]

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Who is Ben Bernanke?

Since nothing less than the fate of the free world depends on the judgment of Ben Bernanke these days, I thought I’d touch base with David Wessel, the Wall Street Journal economics editor, who has just published In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic. I doubted David could tell me anything […]

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Why We Need Six New Saudi Arabia’s

I recently spent an evening with Ambassador Richard Jones, the Deputy Executive Director of the International Energy Agency in Paris, who had some eye opening things to say about the energy space. The IEA was first set up as a counterweight to OPEC during the oil crisis in 1974, and has since evolved into a […]

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July 12, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“We’ve seen the S&P 500 drop 50% twice in the last decade. That is the new normal”, said Richard Kang of Emerging Global Advisors.

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Frankfurt, Germany Strategy Luncheon – July 18, 2012

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Frankfurt, Germany on Wednesday, July 18, 2012. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on […]

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My Briefing from the Joint Chiefs of Staff

I have always considered the US military to have one of the world’s greatest research organizations. The frustrating thing is that their “clients” only consist of the President and a handful of three and four star generals. So I thought that I would review my notes from a dinner I had with General James E. […]

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Why the JGB Market May Be Ready to Collapse

When I first arrived in Japan in 1974, international investors widely expected the country to collapse, a casualty of the overnight quadrupling of oil prices to $12 and the global recession that followed. Japanese borrowers were only able to tap foreign debt markets by paying a 200 basis point premium to the market, a condition […]

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