The Population Boom

In their century long coverage of exotic places, cultures, and practices, National Geographic Magazine inadvertently sheds light on broad global trends that deeply affect the rest of us. Plus, the pictures are great. A recent issue celebrated the approach of the world’s population to 7 billion, and the implications therein. Long time readers of this […]

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Why Water Will Soon Become More Valuable Than Oil

If you think that the upcoming energy shortage is going to be bad, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis. So investment in fresh water infrastructure is going to be a great recurring long term investment theme. One theory about the endless wars in the Middle East since 1918 is that they […]

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Who Expensive Oil Hurts the Most

Every time the price of oil spikes, we learn vast amounts of information about the global reach of this indispensable commodity. It’s like taking a non-core elective in geology at college. So I was fascinated when I found the chart of relative sector winners and losers below. No surprise that energy does best from sky […]

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January 24, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“Apple will never be a consumer products company,” said John Sculley, the Apple CEO who fired Steve Jobs in 1985. Today Apple is the world’s largest and most profitable consumer products company.

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SOLD OUT! Beverly Hills January 23 Strategy Seminar

Come join me for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in Beverly Hills at 1:30 pm on Monday, January 23, 2012. A 45 minute PowerPoint asset class review will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee and snacks will be made […]

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Buy Flood Insurance With the VIX

I am one of those cheapskates who buys Christmas ornaments by the bucket load from Costco in January for ten cents on the dollar because my eleven month return on capital comes close to 1,000%. I also like buying flood insurance in the middle of the summer when the forecast here in California is for […]

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The Price of Stardom at Davos

It’s that time of year again, when finance ministers, central bank governors, hedge fund managers, and assorted rock stars hold their annual confab high in the Alps at Davos, Switzerland. When I was a director of one of the largest banks in Switzerland, I found myself a frequent visitor to the Alpine village of Davos. […]

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Will Gold Coins Suffer the Fate of the $10,000 Bill?

The conspiracy theorists will love this one. Buried deep in the bowels of the 2,000 page health care bill was a new requirement for gold dealers to file Form 1099′s for all retail sales by individuals over $600. Specifically, the measure can be found in section 9006 of the Patient Protection and Affordability Act of […]

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January 23, 2012 – Quote of the Day

Steve Jobs offered me one third of Apple for $50,000 and I was so smart that I turned it down. It’s funny when you think about it now, except when I’m crying,” said Nolan Bushnell, the founder of game company Atari and Jobs’ first employer.  

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The Weekly Jobless Claims Blockbuster

Traders were taken aback this morning when the Department of Labor announced a 50,000 drop in weekly jobless claims to 352,000. The street had been expecting a decline of only 19,000. It was the lowest report in almost three years, and the sharpest weekly decline in seven years. I tell people that, if stranded on […]

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January 20, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“You can’t keep on firing people. We’ve gotten so mean and so lean that you naturally get to the point where there are fewer people to let go,” said Steve Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities.

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2012 Strategy Luncheon Schedule

Many of you have asked for this year’s strategy luncheon calendar so you can make advance travel arrangements, so here it is. This is understandable, since the Orlando luncheon saw visitors from Brazil and Australia, the Los Angeles one had subscribers from Alaska thawing out, and at the London event the distinctive accent of Johannesburg […]

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Beware the Coming Equity Famine

The world is about to suffer an acute shortage of equity capital over the next eight years which could total $12.3 trillion. That is the conclusion of the McKinsey Global Institute, an affiliate of McKinsey &Co., a great well of long term economic thinking which I have been drawing from for the last 40 years. […]

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Fade the Second Half of January

Let me tell you about the real January effect. Many pension and retirement funds only reshuffle weightings between different asset classes once a year, mostly in January. That has created a temporary surge of stock buying and bond selling that exhausts itself by the middle of the month. After that, the market sells off. During […]

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January 19, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“The journey is the reward,” said the late Apple founder, Steve Jobs.

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