This had to be one of the greatest change of life weekends in human history, endured by one Mark Zuckerberg. On Friday, he earned $9.2 billion with the flawed Facebook (FB) flotation. On Saturday, he married a Chinese doctor and longtime girlfriend, Pricilla Chan. Then on Monday, oops honey, I lost $1.2 billion. Talk about a rocky start! Never mind that the precise timing was intended to undercut any future divorce claims, hence no prenuptial. Her cost basis is $38 a share, his is zero.
I knew that when the stock closed pennies above the $38 syndicate bid on Friday that there would be a Monday MORNING massacre. I warned away people from this issue at every opportunity. When Wall Street starts drinking its own Kool-Aid you, can count on a mass murder to follow.
Brokers we urging clients to apply for 100 times the shares they really wanted in the expectation that that would get only 1% of their request. That paved the way for the ugliest broker confirm of the year, that you received the entire allocation that of Facebook shares that you applied for, and they were now down 13%.
By Monday, some hapless investors still had not received notice of the allocation. At least they are faring better than the suckers lured into the aftermarket to buy stock at $43, now down 30%. Think of the entire flotation as a full employment act for the legal profession.
There was enough mud on lead underwriter, Morgan Stanley’s face to fill Yankee Stadium. It is sad to see how low the standards and competence have fallen at this once great firm. I am now seriously thinking of taking this sullied name off of my resume, even though it is an ancient entry. Don’t worry, they’ll get their just punishment. The losses on their Facebook Stabilization fund is thought to be as high as $100 million, wiping out any underwriting fees earned. Expect investors to defriend (MS) post haste. What was expected to be the biggest payday of the year for Wall Street turned out to become the largest bill due.
I made a killing on Facebook, not through any direct participation, but from the market timing it clarified. When the (FB) was down $5, the Dow should have been off 300. They fact that it wasn’t flashed a huge “BUY” signal to me, enough to cause me to rush to cover all of my profitable shorts and flip my model trading portfolio from a big “RISK OFF” stance to a moderate “RISK ON”. So far, it’s working, with Apple (AAPL) up $25 since my call, and (IWM) rocketing two full points.
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