Follow Up to Trade Alert – (FXY) June 6, 2013

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price.

Further Explanation to: Trade Alert – (FXY) Stop Loss

Sell the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) June, 2013 $100-$103 in-the-money bear put spread at $2.05 or best

Closing Trade


expiration date: June 21, 2013

Portfolio weighting: 10%

Number of Contracts = 39 contracts

I always believe that any loss you don’t learn from is a loss wasted. One reason I know so much is because I have suffered a lot of losses, mostly at my own expense when I was young and stupid, well before the Trade Alert Service started.

So what did we learned from out most recent ill-advised attempt to profit from selling short the Japanese yen against the US dollar? Let me count the ways.

1) When the world’s largest short-term positions all key off of the identical stop loss points, watch out! The 15 minute 3% move we saw today was one of the sharpest in the 40-year history of the free floating foreign exchange markets.

2) No one ever got fired for taking a profit. At one point, we had a 1.40% profit on this trade instead of a 1.95% loss.

3) When there is nothing to do, don’t do anything.

4) Watch those stop losses. I think I’ll include underlying stop loss points in my Trade Alerts from here on out. It took a 7% move in two weeks to take us out of this one, which is unbelievable. But these days, the unbelievable happens on a regular basis, both on the upside and the downside.

5) Limiting position sizes to 10% of your total portfolio is a total winner. That’s why I’m laughing now, instead of crying, or looking for a new job on Craig’s List. At a certain point, leverage quits being investment and become reckless gambling.

6) Next May, sell and go away!

7) Never complain that I am not sending out enough Trade Alerts. I can understand why you want as many as you can get, as 90% have been profitable this year. Doing nothing doesn’t mean I have suddenly become lazy in my old age, or am developing dementia. It means the current risk levels in the markets are extremely elevated, as I warned you, that the risk/reward ratio totally sucks, and that you are better off making room in your sock drawer for your cash than place it in the market. “Nothing to do” really does mean “nothing to do.”

The next time your are in a hurry to get another Trade Alert, take a look at the profit and loss below first:

Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:

Sell 39 June, 2013 (FXY) $103 puts at……………………$3.25
Buy to cover short 39 June, 2013 (FXY) $100 puts at…..$1.20
Net Cost:…………………………………………………….$2.05

Loss: $2.55 – $2.05 = $0.50

(39 X 100 X $0.50) = $1,950 or 1.95% profit for the notional $100,000 portfolio.

FXY 6-6-13

YCS 6-6-13

Japanese Girl The Reach Too Far