June 21, 2010 – Special Chinese Yuan Revaluation Issue

Featured Trades: (CHINESE YUAN)
Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund ETF
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF

 


1) Special Chinese Yuan Revaluation Issue. Specifically, China has announced that it will ‘further reform the RMB exchange rate regime and enhance RMB exchange rate flexibility.’ To me, this is Chinese for ‘let it go up.’ If you think you can get more out of this statement than I can, please read the full statement on the People’s Bank of China Website by clicking here). There was a rising crescendo of chatter that the Middle Kingdom would finally make its move at the upcoming G-20 meeting in Canada, which traders in the ETF were clearly sniffing out all last week (see chart below). I made a major call for the appreciation of the Chinese currency on February 16 (click here for the call), and that investors should use the ETF (CYB) as a back book position or a place to park cash. I warned that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce was computer modeling the effects of a stronger Yuan on their economy on March 1 (click here for the piece). Finally, my old friend, Eisuke Sakakibara, or ‘Mr. Yen’, nailed it on April 28, he predicted a 5% appreciation by the end of June (click here for the call ). China took the move, not because it wants to win friends and become an admirable global citizen, but to get a handle on its runaway inflation. I pointed out only last week, that at the current rate of wage increases, China would match half of America’s minimum wage in only five years, tossing its comparative cost advantage (click here for that piece). The impact on the Chinese stock market (FXI) is debatable. Exporters will take a big hit, but more foreign money may start pouring in now that the Yuan has been unshackled. It is safe to say that this is just the first of many more revaluations in the years to come. You can’t keep a good currency down. The last time the Yuan floated in 2005, it rose 21% over three years. By my count, the Chinese currency is currently undervalued by 50%. Those who heeded my advice will no doubt be waiting with baited breath to see how the Chinese currency opens Monday morning. But is safe to say that you can chalk this one up in the ‘win’ column.

Wisdomtree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund


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