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Bonds or Stocks: Who’s Right?

Treasury bonds spike to new one year highs, closing at a 2.40% yield, and trading as low as a 2.30% yield in the overnight market at one point last week. Clearly, serious deflation is continuing for the indefinite future. Buy more bonds! US corporate profits are at all time highs, just closing one of the […]

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How the Ukraine Crisis Will Play Out

I can tell you exactly how the crisis in the Ukraine is going to play out. This has major implications for the global economy, financial markets and your personal portfolio, so listen up! The key to deciphering this puzzle is oil, far and away Russia’s largest export. At 10 million barrels a day, the country […]

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The Cost of an Ageing World

Regular readers of this letter are well aware of my fascination with demographics as a market driver. They go a long way towards explaining if asset prices are facing a long-term structural headwind or tailwind. The great thing about the data is that you can get precise, high quality numbers 20, or even 50 years […]

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What Could Derail the Coming Golden Age?

Regular readers of this letter are well familiar with my “Golden Age” scenario for the decade starting in 2020. That’s when US economic growth, assisted by a huge demographic tailwind, doubles from 2% to 4% a year, sending all asset prices soaring. Is this a sure thing? A done deal? Should I be betting the […]

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Shaking the Hand that Killed Osama bin Laden

The team fought their way up two flights of stairs in pitch-blackness, dispatching several fighters along the way. A tall figure emerged in the green glow of the night vision goggles. It hesitated. Two shots were fired, and the body hit the ground. That was how Navy Seal Team Six member, Mark Owen, described the […]

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Has Turkey Suffered Enough?

I am writing this to you from the veranda of the presidential suite at the Ciragan Palace Hotel in Istanbul. The former palace of an Ottoman prince, the commerce of the Straights of Bosphorus plays out before me. Empty supertankers lumber up the narrow waterway to pick up another load of Russian crude at Baku, […]

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Why is the S&P 500 Beating the Dow?

I often see one stock index outperform another, as different segments of the economy speed up, slow down, or go nowhere. Sometimes the reasons for this are fundamental, technical, or completely arbitrary. Many analysts have been scratching their heads this year over why the S&P 500 has been moving from strength to strength for the […]

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Don’t Be Short China Here

Everyone who has been reading this letter for the past seven years (yes, there are quite a few of you), know that I am a fundamentalist first and a technician second. Of course you need to use both, as those who mistakenly leave one tool in the bag reliably underperform indexes. The one liner here […]

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Time to Take Another Ride with General Motors

It is safe to say that all of the bad news is finally in the price at General Motors (GM). In the wake of the latest batch of recalls last week, the total number of cars slated for mandatory repairs now equals virtually all of the company’s production of the last five years. Woe to […]

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader Sets New All Time High with 19.74% Gain in 2014

I am writing this to you from the ancient city of Bodrum on the southwest coast of Turkey. Coming here, I had to set my watch ahead ten hours, then back 3,000 years. As I sit here on my balcony, a flotilla of yachts, both large and small, motor by with the Greek island of […]

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It’s “RISK ON” Again

“Well, I’ll either be up 25% by the end of June or I just blew up my 2014 performance.” That is what I told my esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, right after I engineered a major “RISK ON” adjustment for my model trading portfolio. If I am right, and bonds peaked and yields […]

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The Solar Road Revisited

“The Solar Road Revisited”. Somehow this modernized version of Bob Dylan’s epic folk album doesn’t quite ring true when couched in terms of our hyper accelerating 21st century technology. Perhaps a Millennial bard will improve on this in the future on iTunes, Pandora, and Beats, of course? Yet, such a futuristic invention has already been […]

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The Price Tag for Clean Coal

I wanted to get the low down on clean coal (KOL) to see how clean it really is, so I visited some friends at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. The modern day descendent of the Atomic Energy Commission, where I had a student job in the early seventies, the leading researcher on laser induced […]

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader Punches Through to New All Time High

The industry beating performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service has finally punched through to a new all time high for the first time in seven weeks. The total return for my followers so far in 2014 has reached 15.50%, compared to a feeble 1.3% for the Dow Average during the same […]

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The 60-40 Correction

Traders have been tearing their hair out this year, if they have any left. The indecisive, flip flopping, “RISK ON”/”RISK OFF” state of play has been devoid of any direction clues for the past three months. Gold (GLD), the yen (FXY), and bonds (TLT) have been even worse, flat lining inside of narrow ranges. Hedge […]

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