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Has Turkey Suffered Enough?

I am writing this to you from the veranda of the presidential suite at the Ciragan Palace Hotel in Istanbul. The former palace of an Ottoman prince, the commerce of the Straights of Bosphorus plays out before me. Empty supertankers lumber up the narrow waterway to pick up another load of Russian crude at Baku, […]

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Why is the S&P 500 Beating the Dow?

I often see one stock index outperform another, as different segments of the economy speed up, slow down, or go nowhere. Sometimes the reasons for this are fundamental, technical, or completely arbitrary. Many analysts have been scratching their heads this year over why the S&P 500 has been moving from strength to strength for the […]

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Don’t Be Short China Here

Everyone who has been reading this letter for the past seven years (yes, there are quite a few of you), know that I am a fundamentalist first and a technician second. Of course you need to use both, as those who mistakenly leave one tool in the bag reliably underperform indexes. The one liner here […]

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Time to Take Another Ride with General Motors

It is safe to say that all of the bad news is finally in the price at General Motors (GM). In the wake of the latest batch of recalls last week, the total number of cars slated for mandatory repairs now equals virtually all of the company’s production of the last five years. Woe to […]

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader Sets New All Time High with 19.74% Gain in 2014

I am writing this to you from the ancient city of Bodrum on the southwest coast of Turkey. Coming here, I had to set my watch ahead ten hours, then back 3,000 years. As I sit here on my balcony, a flotilla of yachts, both large and small, motor by with the Greek island of […]

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It’s “RISK ON” Again

“Well, I’ll either be up 25% by the end of June or I just blew up my 2014 performance.” That is what I told my esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, right after I engineered a major “RISK ON” adjustment for my model trading portfolio. If I am right, and bonds peaked and yields […]

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The Solar Road Revisited

“The Solar Road Revisited”. Somehow this modernized version of Bob Dylan’s epic folk album doesn’t quite ring true when couched in terms of our hyper accelerating 21st century technology. Perhaps a Millennial bard will improve on this in the future on iTunes, Pandora, and Beats, of course? Yet, such a futuristic invention has already been […]

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The Price Tag for Clean Coal

I wanted to get the low down on clean coal (KOL) to see how clean it really is, so I visited some friends at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. The modern day descendent of the Atomic Energy Commission, where I had a student job in the early seventies, the leading researcher on laser induced […]

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader Punches Through to New All Time High

The industry beating performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Trade Alert Service has finally punched through to a new all time high for the first time in seven weeks. The total return for my followers so far in 2014 has reached 15.50%, compared to a feeble 1.3% for the Dow Average during the same […]

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The 60-40 Correction

Traders have been tearing their hair out this year, if they have any left. The indecisive, flip flopping, “RISK ON”/”RISK OFF” state of play has been devoid of any direction clues for the past three months. Gold (GLD), the yen (FXY), and bonds (TLT) have been even worse, flat lining inside of narrow ranges. Hedge […]

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The Game Changer in India

“The India election result is the biggest development to affect emerging markets over the last 30 years.” That is what retired chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and originator of the “BRIC” term, Jim O’Neal, told me last week. Indeed, the stunning news has sent long term country specialists scampering. In my long term strategy […]

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An Evening with David Tepper

“There is a time to make money, and a time to not lose money. This is one of those times.” That was the insightful gem I came away with after listening to David Tepper speak at the 7th annual SALT Alternative Investment Conference in Las Vegas Nevada. Tepper continued, opining that the markets are “dangerous” […]

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An Afternoon with General Colin Powell

I have long had enormous respect for General Colin Powell. My commanding four star general when I was flying errands for the Marine Corps. during Desert Storm, he fights my kind of war; they’re very short, three days in the case of desert storm, and we won. And topping everything else, the Kuwaitis paid for […]

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The Technical/Fundamental Tug of War: Who Will Win?

For the last few weeks, I have had two groups of analysts screaming in my ears. Fundamental researchers are asserting that at $120 per share in earnings, generating price earnings multiple of 18, stocks are at the historic middle of a 10-22 range. Q1 earnings are almost over and modestly outperformed on the upside, although […]

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The Endless Summer of 2014

We have just endured three weary months of tedious range trading, typical of a normal summer’s action. The problem is that the actual summer is about to begin. Are we going to suffer another three months of tedious range trading? Is summer trading this year going to last a full six months? Is this the […]

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