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Is Quantitative Easing Over?

That is certainly the conclusion of the financial markets. When Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, failed to mention the magic words in his House Humphrey Hawkins testimony on Wednesday, risk assets were sent into a tailspin. Gold suffered a $100 move plunge in hours, the futures market seeing an almost instantaneous liquidation of $1.3 billion […]

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Enough is Enough with Apple

Everyone knows how much I love Apple shares as an investment. For years now, my report forecasting that the stock would hit $1,000 someday has been circulating inside the company for a sought after weekend read. Just today, my old friend, co-founder Steve Wozniak, was quoting from it in making his own $1,000 prediction. I […]

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Buy Christmas Ornaments in January With the (VXX)

I am a notorious seeker of great bargains. I buy sun hats in the winter, umbrellas in the summer, and Christmas ornaments in January when Costco sells them for ten cents on the dollar. I even go into the barrio to buy Japanese sake where no one knows what it is, and it is sometimes […]

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The Looking Glass Market

If you feel like this market has sucked you down a rabbit hole, you have plenty of company. I have never seen such a profusion of contrary cross market indicators. Traders are running up shares prices while companies are cutting earnings forecasts. Economists are raising GDP forecasts as rising energy prices are taking them the […]

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It’s All About the Euro

Wednesday will be all about the Euro. That is the day that the European Central Bank announces the result of the next tranche of its quantitative easing program, the LTRO, or Long Term Financial Reorganization policy. This is the program that allows European banks to borrow unlimited funds at 1% with no questions asked. This […]

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Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China

I rely on hundreds of ‘moles’ around the world whose job it is to watch a single, but important indicator for the world economy. One of them checks for me the want ads in the manufacturing mega city of Shensen, China, and what he told me last week was alarming. Wage demands by Chinese workers […]

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My Favorite Stock to Short

Troubled Bank of America (BAC) certainly earned its title as the premier Dog of the Dow last year. It managed an appalling 58% decline in 2011, the worst of any of the 30 Index stocks. It only managed to stay above the crucial $5 level by a hair’s breadth, below which many pension funds are […]

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China Joins the Quantitative Easing Club

The other shoe has fallen in China, with the People’s Bank of China’s move to cut bank reserve requirements by 50 basis points, the second time since November. The relaxation makes the Middle Kingdom a certified, card carrying member of the international quantitative easing club.  It also confirms the country’s time tested preference for announcing […]

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The Long View on Emerging Markets

I managed to catch a few comments in the distinct northern accent of Jim O’Neil, the fabled analyst who invented the ‘BRIC’ term, and who has been kicked upstairs to the chairman’s seat at Goldman Sachs International (GS) in London. Jim thinks that it is still the early days for the space, and that these […]

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Global Trading Dispatch Hits 64%, 11 Day Home Run On Yen Short

When I covered my short position on the Japanese yen on Friday, it was not because I suddenly fell in love with the Land of the Rising Sun, began each day with a Zen meditation, started eating sushi three times a day, or initiated writing this letter from a hot tub. It is because followers […]

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Here Comes the Next Peace Dividend

When communications between intelligence agencies suddenly spike, as has recently been the case, I sit up and take note. Hey, do you think I talk to all of those generals because I like their snappy uniforms, do you? The word is that the despotic, authoritarian regime in Syria is on the verge of collapse, and […]

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Earnings are Slowing as the Market is Peaking

Just as portfolio managers are buying shares because the stock market is going up, the fundamental argument behind higher equity prices is starting to erode. As the totals are coming into focus for the Q4 earnings period, disappointment is becoming the order of the day. Of the 291 S&P 500 companies that have reported so […]

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Rumblings in Tokyo

I spent ten years of my life tramping in and out of Japan’s Ministry of Finance headquarters in Tokyo’s Kasumigaseki district. It was a dreadful reinforced steel and concrete affair with a dull grey tile siding that was so solidly built that it was one of the few structures in the city to survive WWII. […]

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Time to Short the Yen Again

The Japanese yen has been flat lining since the tsunami struck in March of last year and was quickly followed by the nuclear meltdown and an economic collapse. In the meantime, the country’s long term structural problems have gotten steadily worse. Last week, the yen was driven back to the very top of the range […]

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Global Trading Dispatch Scores Two Day 75% Gain

Finally, all that driving down dusty, bumpy, washboard dirt roads in the Barnet Shale in Texas paid off. The thing about a great trade is that when it works, new reasons to justify it that you never thought of suddenly come out of the woodwork. That is exactly what happened with my decision to sell […]

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