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Time to Short Natural Gas Again

Long term readers are well aware of my antipathy towards natural gas, which has been in your worst nightmare of a bear market for the past three years. Well, the simple molecule finally got some good news last week. First, major producer, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) announced that it was cutting its natural gas production by […]

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Will Facebook Mark the Market Top?

The street is chattering today over the prospect of an enormous payday with the imminent IPO for the social media company, Facebook. Price talk is valuing the company as high as $100 billion, making it the largest such floatation in history. Could the mega deal spell the end of the current bull market? Look at […]

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Is This the Chink in Japan’s Armor?

“Oh, how I despise the yen, let me count the ways.” I’m sure Shakespeare would have come up with a line of iambic pentameter similar to this if he were a foreign exchange trader. I firmly believe that a short position in the yen should be at the core of any hedged portfolio for the […]

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Apple’s Next Stop: $1,000!

Newspapers, TV, radio, and the Internet all carried the same headline in San Francisco today: “Apple Now World’s Largest Company.” That was the response to the company’s Q4 earnings of $13 billion announced yesterday that drove its market capitalization skyward to $415 billion, surpassing ExxonMobile’s (XOM) once again. What is even more amazing is that […]

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Goodbye Steve Jobs, Hello Dividend?

Analysts continue to be stunned by the rate at which cash is rolling into Apple (AAPL). At current cash flows, the company’s hoard is expected to grow from $96.7 billion to $130 billion by next June, an increase of nearly $220 million a day! So far, the company has resisted every entreaty to part with […]

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The Benefit of the Doubt Market

It is already January 24, and the S&P 500 has seen a grand total of two down days so far in 2012. Are we on the eve of one of the great bull markets of all time? Is it off to the races once again? I follow dozens of fundamental and trading research services and […]

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The Resurrection of Peak Oil

It has been a long wait for ‘peak oilers,’ whose passionate belief is that the world will run out of oil in coming years, sending prices through the roof. This splinter religion came into being in 1956 when M. King Hubbert produced some simple supply/demand charts showing that US reserves of Texas tea would dry […]

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Watch International Savings Rates for Market Cues

Often while searching for a piece of data through Google, I stumble across something else which is far more interesting. That is how I found the table below of international savings rates. Why should you care? Because countries with high savings rates tend to have strong economies and great stock markets, since there is plenty […]

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Why Water Will Soon Become More Valuable Than Oil

If you think that the upcoming energy shortage is going to be bad, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis. So investment in fresh water infrastructure is going to be a great recurring long term investment theme. One theory about the endless wars in the Middle East since 1918 is that they […]

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Who Expensive Oil Hurts the Most

Every time the price of oil spikes, we learn vast amounts of information about the global reach of this indispensable commodity. It’s like taking a non-core elective in geology at college. So I was fascinated when I found the chart of relative sector winners and losers below. No surprise that energy does best from sky […]

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Buy Flood Insurance With the VIX

I am one of those cheapskates who buys Christmas ornaments by the bucket load from Costco in January for ten cents on the dollar because my eleven month return on capital comes close to 1,000%. I also like buying flood insurance in the middle of the summer when the forecast here in California is for […]

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Will Gold Coins Suffer the Fate of the $10,000 Bill?

The conspiracy theorists will love this one. Buried deep in the bowels of the 2,000 page health care bill was a new requirement for gold dealers to file Form 1099′s for all retail sales by individuals over $600. Specifically, the measure can be found in section 9006 of the Patient Protection and Affordability Act of […]

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The Weekly Jobless Claims Blockbuster

Traders were taken aback this morning when the Department of Labor announced a 50,000 drop in weekly jobless claims to 352,000. The street had been expecting a decline of only 19,000. It was the lowest report in almost three years, and the sharpest weekly decline in seven years. I tell people that, if stranded on […]

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Beware the Coming Equity Famine

The world is about to suffer an acute shortage of equity capital over the next eight years which could total $12.3 trillion. That is the conclusion of the McKinsey Global Institute, an affiliate of McKinsey &Co., a great well of long term economic thinking which I have been drawing from for the last 40 years. […]

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Fade the Second Half of January

Let me tell you about the real January effect. Many pension and retirement funds only reshuffle weightings between different asset classes once a year, mostly in January. That has created a temporary surge of stock buying and bond selling that exhausts itself by the middle of the month. After that, the market sells off. During […]

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