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The Shutdown is Over….For Now

After 16 days of high drama, bluster, and handwringing, the Great Washington Shutdown of 2013 is finally over. President Obama held fast and won. The Republicans kept changing their goals by the day and lost. But what we got was anything but a resolution. The next shutdown is now scheduled for January 15, and the […]

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The Government Shutdown is Worse Than You Think

I am rapidly coming to the depressing conclusion that the government shutdown, now in its 15th day, is going to have a far greater impact on the economy than most economists realize. When the markets figure this out, the result for share prices could be dire, putting my entire yearend bull case at risk. My […]

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Apple is Ready to Explode

You have to be impressed how Apple shares have been trading during the Washington shutdown and the debt ceiling crisis. While other highflying technology stocks have crashed and burned, Apple has held like the Rock of Gibraltar. Is this presaging much better things to come? After the bar was set extremely low in the run […]

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Cutting Back My Risk

By now, you have figured out that I executed a major “derisking” of my model trading portfolio today, cutting my exposure by two thirds. Most of these positions only had a few basis points in maximum profit left, so bailing here was a no brainer, a case of “Basic Risk Control 101.” Better to laugh […]

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Say Goodbye to the Washington Discount

If it hasn’t happened by today, then it is no more than a week away. The deep discount suffered by American stocks is about to go away. Thanks to the manufactured uncertainty emanating from the nation’s capital created by the government shutdown, stocks have been selling at a 10% or more discount to where they […]

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a three year return of 101.11%, a new all time high. That compares to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of 26%. This has been the largest profit since the ground-breaking trade mentoring service was launched […]

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Texas Tea Takes a Dive

Take a Look at the chart below and you will see that the price of oil is breaking key support. Texas tea has now backed off $13 since the end of August, and lower prices beckon. It turned out that oil made an initial peak with the Egyptian Army’s ferocious and bloody attack on the […]

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Apple’s Blowout Numbers Send Bears Scampering

Apple’s (AAPL) report this morning that it sold a stunning 9 million model 5s and 5c iPhones has bowled over even the company’s most optimistic cheerleaders and sent the bears running. The consensus estimate had been only for 5 million units. At the opening highs, shares were up $30 to $497, well above the $468 […]

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Ben Gives Green Light to Bull Markets

I told you so! Ben Bernanke’s decision not to taper $85 billion a month of Federal Reserve bond purchases came as a surprise to everyone, but me. The reasons were legion. Blame Syria, blame the weak August nonfarm payroll, blame a near zero inflation rate, blame the coming debt ceiling crisis. The bottom line is […]

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It’s All About Larry

When I first heard about Larry Summers decision to withdraw his name from consideration as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I thought “Whoa! “RISK ON, here we come.” I knew immediately that global stock (SPY), bond (TLT), and commodity markets would rocket and the dollar would crash (FXA), except against the Japanese yen […]

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Catching up with Economist David Hale

I have been relying on David Hale as my de facto global macro economist for decades, and I never miss an opportunity to get his updated views. The challenge is in writing down David’s eye popping, out of consensus ideas fast enough, because he spits them out in such rapid-fire succession. Since David is an […]

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My 2013 Stock Market Outlook

It’s time to put on your buying boots and throw caution to the wind. The S&P 500 (SPY) is likely to rebound as much as 9% from the recent 1,630 low to as high as 1,780 by the end of December. What’s more, stocks could add another 10%-20% in 2014. The nimble and the aggressive […]

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Bailing on My Oil Short

We got the dollar drop over the weekend that I was expecting. There was no way that the war was going to start before Obama gave his speech on Tuesday and congress votes yea or nay later on. So when the missiles failed to show by the Monday morning opening, they took Texas tea down […]

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The Emerging “BUY” on Emerging Markets

No asset class has been beaten more severely this year than emerging markets. Since the March, 2011 high, the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM) has plunged from $48 to $35.80, a loss of 25%. Individual markets have fared far worse. The Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (IDX) has taken a 39% haircut, while the Powershares […]

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Why I’m Keeping My Oil Short

Let’s call this the weekend of love. On Friday morning, we were looking forward to a long weekend of missiles raining down on Syria and the regional conflagration that would follow. The price of oil reflected as much, with west Texas intermediate trading all the way up to $112.50. Then the British Parliament voted against […]

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