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Riding With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew

I was perusing my morning email in Zermatt a few weeks ago, and spotted the familiar White House address with the .gov ending. Would I be interested in meeting with the new Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew? It was just what I needed to lure me out of my Alpine lair back to the USA. I […]

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How US Job Losses Will End

I was researching comparative Asian wage data the other day and was astounded with what I found. Textile workers earn $2.99 an hour in India (PIN), $1.84 in China (FXI), and $0.49 in Vietnam (VNM). This is an 18 fold increase in labor costs from ten cents an hour since Chinese industrialization launched in 1978. […]

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Why I Sold Oil

I think that oil peaked last week with the Egyptian Army’s ferocious and bloody attack on the Muslim Brotherhood. I hate to sound cynical here, but count the daily bodies in the street, which has been trending down sharply since Thursday’s, 1,000 plus tally. Fewer bodies mean lower oil prices. This has most likely broken […]

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Why You should Buy This Dip

There’s nothing like coming home and getting slapped in the face with a fresh mackerel the second I step off the plane. That’s what happens when you travel from a continent that is universally positive about US stocks, to one that is largely negative. Take a look at the chart below from my friends at […]

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How The Euro Looks From Mykonos

When I sat down at my table at the Namos Restaurant, I was somewhat puzzled by the handful of sand thrown on every table. Are the Greeks as untidy with their food service as they are with their national accounts? Namos is on the south beach of the Greek island of Mykonos, part of the […]

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Ambush in Australia

For a lifetime central bank watcher, like myself, this was one for the record books. Reserve Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, said last week that he welcomed a weak Australia dollar and that it probably had further to fall. To put gasoline on the flames, he added that there was room for the RBA to […]

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A Perfect Storm Hits the Grain Trade

Grain traders have suffered a terrible 2013, a perfect storm of great news for farmers and terrible news for prices. But while farmers can make up for low prices with higher production, no such convenience exists for grain traders. In January, right out of the gate, the USDA predicted that the US would produce the […]

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Not Your Father’s Railroads

When I rode Amtrak’s California Zephyr service from Chicago to San Francisco last year, I passed countless trains heading west hauling hoppers full of coal for shipment to China. This year I took the same trip. The coal trains were gone. Instead I saw 100 car long tanker trains transporting crude oil from North Dakota […]

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The High Oil Mystery

American oil imports from the Middle East are in free fall, down 35% in two years. They are quickly being replaced by tar sands imports from Canada, which are ballooning to 2 million barrels a day and at all time highs. American energy production is surging, thanks to new finds of natural gas showing up […]

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The Yen Carry Trade Blow Up

When I staggered downstairs at 11:00 PM to check the close for the Tokyo stock market, my eyes just about popped out of my head. Yikes! Down 6.3%! The yen was up another 2% to ¥94 against the US dollar as well!! It looked like the world was in for another round of “RISK OFF” […]

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Where’s This Market Bottom?

After yesterday’s 217 point swoon, the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen 4.3% from its late May peak. It looks like the “Sell in May” crowd is having the last laugh after all, of which I was one. Is this a modest 5% correction in a continuing bull market? Or is it the beginning of a […]

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Welcome to the Sack of Rome

Let’s face it, the carnage in the bond markets in May outdid the sack of Rome. Not only did the Treasury bonds (TLT) get hit. The entire high yield space was slaughtered, including corporates (LQD), junk bonds (JNK), REITS (VNQ), master limited partnerships (KMP), municipal bonds (MUB), and high dividend equities. Anything that looked and […]

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The Bottom is in for the Ags

Take a look at the drought monitor below, and you’ll see that it looks exactly like the one we saw a year ago. Yes, that’s the one right before we saw prices double for corn (CORN) and most other agricultural products. The global warming trade may be about to return with a vengeance. If the […]

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The American Onshoring Trend is Accelerating

Onshoring, the return of US manufacturing from abroad, is rapidly gathering pace. It is increasingly playing a crucial part in the unfolding American industrial renaissance. It could well develop into the most important new trend on the global economic scene during the early 21st century. It is also paving the way for a return of […]

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Five Stocks to Buy for the Second Half

Take a look at the chart below for the S&P 500, and it is clear that we are at the top, of a top, of a top. How much new stock do you want to buy here? Not much. Virtually every technical trading service I follow, including my own, is now flashing distressed warning signals. […]

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