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Here Comes the Next Peace Dividend

I was amazed to see the Dow Average open up only 60 points this morning, and oil to fall a mere $1.50, given the enormous long term implications of a real nuclear deal with Iran. Over the decades, I have noticed that Wall Street isn’t very good at analyzing international political matters and the implications […]

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader Melts Up to 56.4% 2013 Performance

I sit here painfully typing this letter, as my fingertips have been worn down to bloody stumps. I have been pounding out the Trade Alerts since the month started, sending out 37, and the month is only half over. That works out to a 3.3636 Trade Alerts a day! I have been so busy that […]

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader 2013 Performance Tops 51%

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted yet another new all time high in performance, taking in 51.13%. The November month to date record is now an enviable 6.67%. The three-year return is an eye popping 106.18%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the […]

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The Worst is yet to Come

I was not surprised to see the belated September nonfarm payroll come in at a miserable 148,000. It clearly shows that companies were already hunkering down with their overheads in the run-up to the recent DC slugfest. The figure had been delayed by the Washington shutdown, which froze all government data releases. In fact, the […]

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What to Do Now?

I am completing one of the best trading years of my 45-year career in the stock market. The Trade Alert service is up by a stunning 41.5% so far in 2013 and by 96.55% since inception 35 months ago. Pretty much every forecast I made for the year came true (click here for “My 2013 […]

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The Shutdown is Over….For Now

After 16 days of high drama, bluster, and handwringing, the Great Washington Shutdown of 2013 is finally over. President Obama held fast and won. The Republicans kept changing their goals by the day and lost. But what we got was anything but a resolution. The next shutdown is now scheduled for January 15, and the […]

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The Government Shutdown is Worse Than You Think

I am rapidly coming to the depressing conclusion that the government shutdown, now in its 15th day, is going to have a far greater impact on the economy than most economists realize. When the markets figure this out, the result for share prices could be dire, putting my entire yearend bull case at risk. My […]

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Apple is Ready to Explode

You have to be impressed how Apple shares have been trading during the Washington shutdown and the debt ceiling crisis. While other highflying technology stocks have crashed and burned, Apple has held like the Rock of Gibraltar. Is this presaging much better things to come? After the bar was set extremely low in the run […]

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Cutting Back My Risk

By now, you have figured out that I executed a major “derisking” of my model trading portfolio today, cutting my exposure by two thirds. Most of these positions only had a few basis points in maximum profit left, so bailing here was a no brainer, a case of “Basic Risk Control 101.” Better to laugh […]

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Say Goodbye to the Washington Discount

If it hasn’t happened by today, then it is no more than a week away. The deep discount suffered by American stocks is about to go away. Thanks to the manufactured uncertainty emanating from the nation’s capital created by the government shutdown, stocks have been selling at a 10% or more discount to where they […]

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a three year return of 101.11%, a new all time high. That compares to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of 26%. This has been the largest profit since the ground-breaking trade mentoring service was launched […]

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Texas Tea Takes a Dive

Take a Look at the chart below and you will see that the price of oil is breaking key support. Texas tea has now backed off $13 since the end of August, and lower prices beckon. It turned out that oil made an initial peak with the Egyptian Army’s ferocious and bloody attack on the […]

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Apple’s Blowout Numbers Send Bears Scampering

Apple’s (AAPL) report this morning that it sold a stunning 9 million model 5s and 5c iPhones has bowled over even the company’s most optimistic cheerleaders and sent the bears running. The consensus estimate had been only for 5 million units. At the opening highs, shares were up $30 to $497, well above the $468 […]

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Ben Gives Green Light to Bull Markets

I told you so! Ben Bernanke’s decision not to taper $85 billion a month of Federal Reserve bond purchases came as a surprise to everyone, but me. The reasons were legion. Blame Syria, blame the weak August nonfarm payroll, blame a near zero inflation rate, blame the coming debt ceiling crisis. The bottom line is […]

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It’s All About Larry

When I first heard about Larry Summers decision to withdraw his name from consideration as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I thought “Whoa! “RISK ON, here we come.” I knew immediately that global stock (SPY), bond (TLT), and commodity markets would rocket and the dollar would crash (FXA), except against the Japanese yen […]

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