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Closing Trade Alert on the (TLT)

Buy to Cover the Short position in the (TLT) September $116-$111 put spread at $0.07 or best Closing Trade 8-28-2012 – 11:30 AM EST expiration date: 9-21-2012 Portfolio weighting: 5%on a delta basis ($5,000/100/$0.07) = 25 Contracts Eight days ago, I was dead-on correct in predicting that a risk reversal in the markets was imminent, […]

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Lunch With the Army Chief of Staff

I can’t tell you how many times I have received a call from the Joint Chiefs of Staff asking “if country “A” attacks country “B” what is the effect on country “Q” and “Z”? After all, there is a pretty short list of those monitoring the global macro economy for 40 years with direct experience […]

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Gold is Just Getting Started

One of my best calls of the year was to plead with readers to avoid gold like the plague, periodically dipping in on the short side only. The barbarous relic has been in a bear market since it peaked at $1,922 an ounce at the end of August last year. Gold shares have fared much […]

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How U.S. Job Losses Will End

I was researching comparative Asian wage data the other day and was astounded with what I found. Textile workers earn $2.99 an hour in India (PIN), $1.84 in China (FXI), and $0.49 in Vietnam (VNM). This is an 18-fold increase in labor costs from $0.10 an-hour since Chinese industrialization launched in 1978. This compares to […]

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The “Safe” Trade Beats All

I certainly hope you took my advice to load your portfolio with corn and gold and to dump your equities five years ago. What? You didn’t? Then you have almost certainly suffered on the performance front. According to data compiled by my former employer, the Financial Times, corn was the top performing asset class since […]

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BHP Cut Bodes Ill for the Global Economy

The decision by BHP Billiton, one of the world’s largest producers of copper, to postpone its planned $20 billion expansion of its Olympic Dam mine is sounding alarms about the near term state of the global economy. It is telling us that China is slowing faster than we thought, that demand for base metals is […]

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Reach for Yield With Sovereign Debt

During my recent meeting with the senior portfolio managers of the big Swiss banks, I kept hearing the same word over and over: yield, yield, yield! The search for yield by end investors has become so overwhelming that it now trumps all other considerations. So I am starting a series of major pieces on the […]

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Gold Surge Pushes Trade Alert Service to New All Time High

Global Trading Dispatch’s Trade Alert Service posted a new all-time high yesterday, clocking a 52.8% return since inception. The 2012 YTD return is now at 12.62%. That takes the average annualized return up to 30.2%, ranking it among the top performing hedge funds in the world. Those happy subscribers who bought my service on May […]

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Watch Out for the Coming Risk Reversal

It is a fact of life that markets get overstretched. Think of pulling on a rubber band too hard, or loading too many paddlers at one end of a canoe. Whatever the metaphor, the outcome is always unpleasant and sometimes disastrous. Take a look at the charts below and you can see how extended markets […]

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Get Ready to Buy the Bond Market

The Treasury bond market has just suffered one of the most horrific selloffs in recent memory, taking the yield on ten year paper up from 1.38% to an eye popping 1.83% in weeks, a three month high. Yields have just risen by an amazing 38%. This has dragged the principal Treasury bond ETF (TLT) down […]

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The Election is Over: Obama Won

For the second time in four years, the Republican Party has blown a presidential election through the choice of a running mate. What little chance the GOP had in winning the election has gone up in smoke with the selection of Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan to join the ticket. Think of him as a Sarah […]

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Time to Pick Up Some Gold

Gold has clearly evolved into a call option on global quantitative easing. Don’t think of it just as the stuff your dentist puts in your teeth or the thing your girlfriends gets you to wrap around her finger anymore. I don’t think that the Federal Reserve will implement QE3 at its September 16-17 meeting, or […]

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The Slippery Slope for Oil

If volatility and lack of direction in the equity market are driving you nuts these days, thank your lucky stars you’re not in the oil market. Only last night, a Japanese supertanker plowed into a US Navy destroyer, causing prices to spike. That’s assuming that you had time to notice while sifting through numerous, contradictory […]

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Double Up or Bail on Your JC Penny Short?

The stock of the day last Friday was, no doubt, JC Penny (JCP), one of the most heavily shorted stocks in the market, which announced Q2, 2012 earnings. Despite a huge miss, the stock soared by 20% because the losses were not as bad as many expected. This leads to the question of whether traders […]

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When Bad Becomes Good and Worse is Even Better

Welcome to the “Heads I win, tails you lose” market. The prospect of imminent quantitative easing by the US, Europe, China, and even Japan is supporting asset prices globally. The worse the economic data reports, the greater the likelihood of such action, and the higher prices can rise. In this topsy turvey world, bad becomes […]

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