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My Fed Call.

My Fed Call. Survey traders and investors today, and you will find that 99% believe further quantitative easing via QE3 will be announced on Thursday. Poll vote Fed governors and you get a more realistic 50% probability. I think it is much less than that – and therein lies the trade. I think that markets […]

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The China News is Big.

NOTE TO READERS: There is a short letter today because I spent the entire weekend writing Trade Alerts, which you will receive right at the Monday morning opening. Last Friday, China announced a $150 billion reflationary public works budget designed to arrest the current free fall in the country’s GDP growth rate. The move came […]

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I Can’t Wait Until September 12.

Those who have been dying of boredom during August — the lowest volume, tightest ranging month in many years — may be about to get their respite. September 12 (or Wednesday next week) offers a potential cornucopia of either fantastically good or terribly bad news, and maybe both. Let me give you a program of […]

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Here Comes the Next Peace Dividend.

When communications between intelligence agencies suddenly spike, as has recently been the case, I sit up and take note. Hey, you don’t think I talk to all of those generals because I like their snappy uniforms, do you? The word is that the despotic, authoritarian regime in Syria is on the verge of collapse, and […]

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Is “RISK ON”/”RISK OFF” Broken?

Here’s a chart that you don’t see very often, the one for iron ore priced in U.S. dollars. I’m sure that every miner working at BHP’s pits in the Australian outback goes to sleep with a print out of this chart clutched close to his chest. You can’t blame him, as his livelihood depends on […]

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Closing Trade Alert on the (TLT)

Buy to Cover the Short position in the (TLT) September $116-$111 put spread at $0.07 or best Closing Trade 8-28-2012 – 11:30 AM EST expiration date: 9-21-2012 Portfolio weighting: 5%on a delta basis ($5,000/100/$0.07) = 25 Contracts Eight days ago, I was dead-on correct in predicting that a risk reversal in the markets was imminent, […]

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Lunch With the Army Chief of Staff

I can’t tell you how many times I have received a call from the Joint Chiefs of Staff asking “if country “A” attacks country “B” what is the effect on country “Q” and “Z”? After all, there is a pretty short list of those monitoring the global macro economy for 40 years with direct experience […]

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Gold is Just Getting Started

One of my best calls of the year was to plead with readers to avoid gold like the plague, periodically dipping in on the short side only. The barbarous relic has been in a bear market since it peaked at $1,922 an ounce at the end of August last year. Gold shares have fared much […]

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How U.S. Job Losses Will End

I was researching comparative Asian wage data the other day and was astounded with what I found. Textile workers earn $2.99 an hour in India (PIN), $1.84 in China (FXI), and $0.49 in Vietnam (VNM). This is an 18-fold increase in labor costs from $0.10 an-hour since Chinese industrialization launched in 1978. This compares to […]

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The “Safe” Trade Beats All

I certainly hope you took my advice to load your portfolio with corn and gold and to dump your equities five years ago. What? You didn’t? Then you have almost certainly suffered on the performance front. According to data compiled by my former employer, the Financial Times, corn was the top performing asset class since […]

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BHP Cut Bodes Ill for the Global Economy

The decision by BHP Billiton, one of the world’s largest producers of copper, to postpone its planned $20 billion expansion of its Olympic Dam mine is sounding alarms about the near term state of the global economy. It is telling us that China is slowing faster than we thought, that demand for base metals is […]

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Reach for Yield With Sovereign Debt

During my recent meeting with the senior portfolio managers of the big Swiss banks, I kept hearing the same word over and over: yield, yield, yield! The search for yield by end investors has become so overwhelming that it now trumps all other considerations. So I am starting a series of major pieces on the […]

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Gold Surge Pushes Trade Alert Service to New All Time High

Global Trading Dispatch’s Trade Alert Service posted a new all-time high yesterday, clocking a 52.8% return since inception. The 2012 YTD return is now at 12.62%. That takes the average annualized return up to 30.2%, ranking it among the top performing hedge funds in the world. Those happy subscribers who bought my service on May […]

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Watch Out for the Coming Risk Reversal

It is a fact of life that markets get overstretched. Think of pulling on a rubber band too hard, or loading too many paddlers at one end of a canoe. Whatever the metaphor, the outcome is always unpleasant and sometimes disastrous. Take a look at the charts below and you can see how extended markets […]

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Get Ready to Buy the Bond Market

The Treasury bond market has just suffered one of the most horrific selloffs in recent memory, taking the yield on ten year paper up from 1.38% to an eye popping 1.83% in weeks, a three month high. Yields have just risen by an amazing 38%. This has dragged the principal Treasury bond ETF (TLT) down […]

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