February 15, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
 
ASNALong at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65

OI Long Feb $19 call @ $1.70

RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70

RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.26
RIG Short Feb 15th - $9 Call @ $0.26

NLS Long at $7.66

VALE Long at $11.85
Premium Collected - $0.30
VALE Short Feb 22nd - $12 Call @ $0.30
.........................................................................................

As I said yesterday, we have two open positions that expire today. RIG settled yesterday about 50 cents under the strike, so it is highly probable that the calls will not be assigned.

If they aren't assigned today, I will look to sell more calls next week.

Look for an alert to close out the OI calls.

Yesterday, the S & P 500 closed lower by 7.30 points. It ended up closing at 2,745.73.

Considering the market was down 21.80 from the prior day close to yesterday's low, the price action ended up the day rather strong.

The market managed to recoup about 2/3 of the selloff by the close.

But, the market moved as you would expect. I say this because on Wednesday, the daily bar closed at 33%.

This put the odds of violating Wednesday's low before the high at about 77%.

And that is what happened.

But with the short term charts bullish, buying against support still makes sense.

The other thing I want to mention is this.

The market had three consecutive days where it gapped higher. This happened on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week. And yesterday gapped lower.

I bring this up because last week, the market had three consecutive bearish gap opens.

So, the three bear gaps were followed by three bullish gaps.

It's interesting that the market managed to balance itself out.

But, I don't think the move yesterday was that unexpected.

Why?

Because we broke through and closed above the midband, yesterday came back to test it from above.

The midband is 2,732.29. And yesterday's low dropped to 2,731.23 before the market found support.

After stopping at the daily midband, the market continued up until the high of the day which was 2,757.90.

So, knowing the midband proved to be highly profitable if you were day trading.

And the range for the day ended up being 26.67 points which was about double the range from Wednesday.

Yesterday's close put the market back to within 16 points of the weekly high.

And the midpoint still remains at 2,732.82. So, a close above this level would mean that the weekly chart is still bullish.

Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 3 points higher. Look for support in the 2,744 area.

NVDA did report and is trading about $9 higher before the open. I was mistaken yesterday when I said BIDU also reports. They report next week.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50

The VIX closed at 16.21. It did manage to close above the major 15.63 level, but not the minor 16.41 level.

The VIX got as high as 17.27 before it sold off to below 16.41.

17.19 is a minor resistance level. And if the VIX can break under 16.02, I would expect it to head lower.

Minor support is at 15.23.

SPX:

Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88 **
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10

At this point, support should be at the midband which is 2,732.29. The major 2,734.40 level should also offer support. 2,739 is also a minor support level.

As I said, the next minor level on the upside is 2,753.93.

Two closes above 2,753.93 and the objective should be 2,812.50.

QQQ:

Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69

The QQQ closed at 171.22 yesterday. The upside objective is now 175.

Unlike the S & P 500, the QQQ did manage to close slightly higher.

The midband is now 169.44. It should offer support.

The midband is 169.49 which should be support.

168.75 should be major support as well. 169.53 is minor support.

IWM:

Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81

The IWM closed at 153.77. The IWM should test 156.25.

The IWM continues to inch closer to the midband which is now 156.05.

153.13 should be strong support.

TLT:

Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49 **
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75

The TLT closed at 121.79. This put the TLT back above the major 121.88 level.

121.68 is a short term support level.

If the TLT can break above 122.27, look for it to head higher.

GLD:

Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22 **
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63

The GLD closed at 124.06. Look for resistance at 124.22. And the objective now should be to a test of 121.88.

122.66 is still minor support on the downside. And 125.78 is resistance on the upside.

Short term charts are moving towards a downtrend.

XLE:

Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85 <
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38

The XLE closed at 65.07. The XLE will need to clear 65.63 to move higher.

62.50 should offer support. Technical support is around the 63 to 64 area.

FXY:

Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97

The FXY closed at 86.37. The FXY appears to be heading back to test the midband from below. The midband is 86.76.

A move up to 87.11 could indicate this pullback is over.

However, short term charts remain bearish. And the daily chart is also bearish. This would suggest resistance at the 86.72 level.

AAPL:

Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00

Apple closed yesterday at 170.80. A close today above 170.31 would suggest a move up to 175.

168.75 should still be strong support.

Biased for a move up. Continuing to look for an entry.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: CMG, AVGO, WDAY, ZBRA, VRSN, EW, ADP, ADSK, DECK, V, EXPE, VRSK, DG, CHKP, AXP, IRBT

Bearish Stocks: TTWO, ABBV, SNE, BABY, ERJ

Be sure to check earnings release dates.