The market followed through to the downside yesterday, closing down 36.85 points.
The downside objective of 2,000 was hit and taken out. Late in the day, the question was ... would it hold?
After stopping at 1,991.72, the S & P 500 rallied back and tried to recapture the major 2,000 level. It took three shots at it and managed to close slightly above it, at 2,000.54.
I mentioned yesterday that Friday did qualify as a selling climax.? For a good part of yesterday, the down to up volume was over 10.? It ended the day at 6.57, therefore it did not qualify as a climax day.
I would have preferred a second selling climax, however it is not necessary to turn the market.
The key now for the market is if 2,000 can hold as support.
To move higher, the S & P 500 will need two closes above 2,015.62.? So, that level becomes a key price level.
It is worth mentioning the VIX.? The VIX actually closed down on the day by 7.41%.? It was down 1.91 points.
You most likely know already that this is a major divergence. Both the S & P 500 and the VIX closed to the downside.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Major level - 31.25
Minor level - 28.91
Major level - 28.13
Minor level - 27.35
Minor level - 25.78 *
Major level - 25.00 *
Minor level - 24.21
Minor level - 22.66
Major level - 21.88
Minor level - 21.09 *
Minor level - 19.53
Major level - 18.75
A close today under 24.21 and the VIX should drop to 21.88.?
25 should be resistance now.
Minor support is at 20.31.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50
Minor level - 2,046.88
Minor level - 2,015.62 *
Major level - 2,000.00
Minor level - 1,984.38 *
Minor level - 1,953.12
Major level - 1,937.50
To move higher, the S & P 500 will need two closes above 2,015.62.? 1,984.38 is the downside level.
Short term support is at 1,984.40.? 2,031.30 should be resistance.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
?
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46 *
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.34
Minor level - 100.78
Major level - 100.00
The QQQ took out the 103.13 level and closed at 102.22.? If the QQQ closes under 102.34 today, it should drop to 100.
101.56 should be a minor support level.
100 is the major support level for the QQQ.
TLT:?
Major level - 140.63
Minor level - 139.85
Minor level - 138.28
Major level - 137.50
Minor level - 136.72
Minor level - 135.16 *
Major level - 134.38
Minor level - 133.60 *
Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
The TLT continues to climb higher and closed at 139.17.? This was above the minor 138.28 level, which means if it closes above that level today, it should move to 140.63.
Resistance should be 143.75.
From a technical standpoint, the TLT closed above it's upper extreme bollinger band on the daily chart.
This indicates that it is overbought, but it also sets up a scenario that the upper band should be retested after a pullback.
GLD:
Major level - 128.13
Minor level - 127.35
Minor level - 125.78 *
Major level - 125.00
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level - 122.66
Major level - 121.88
The GLD closed at 126.68 yesterday.? The objective is to 128.13.
131.25 is a level I would not expect the GLD to break through on this drive.
The bullish percent index for the gold miner now reads 92.86%.? It is overbought.
XLE:
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41
Major level - 65.63 *
Minor level - 64.85 *
Minor level - 63.28
Major level - 62.50
A close today under 64.85 and the XLE should drop to 62.50. Watch if the XLE can reclaim the 64.85 level today.
62.50 should be major support.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple did close under 93.75 yesterday.? This sets up a scenario that says that Apple should drop lower.
At this point, 93.75 should be resistance.? Also, the 100 level should be strong resistance.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: MMM, CBRL, CLX, CXO, JNJ, INGR, DLR, HSY, DTE, MJN, DGX
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Bearish Stocks:? REGN, BIIB, AMGN, GS, FLT, PANW, ALXN, EXPE, CELG, MA, PII, GRA, RCL, COF
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Be sure to check earnings release dates.
