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December 28, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

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Due to the fact that I am running late this morning and the fact that the markets have been trading essentially the same way for the past two weeks, this update will be short and to the point.

Narrow range trading continues and I expect that action until after the new year.

Yesterday, the S & P 500 closed 5.08 points to the upside, at 2,268.87.? The VIX also closed to the upside, at 11.97.

This divergence has not happened since December 7th.

After both closing to the upside on the 7th, the market traded higher for the next four days.? As I write this, the markets are trading slightly to the downside.

As you know, I have mentioned KEY levels where major turning points could occur in the markets and they are trading right at those levels. We need to continue to monitor those levels as the markets trade around them.

Continue to monitor the levels for entry points.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:


$VIX:

Major level ? 14.06
Minor level ? 13.67
Minor level ? 12.89
Major level - 12.50 **
Minor level ? 12.11
Minor level ? 11.33
Major level ? 10.94
Major level ?? 9.38

I had expected a retest of 12.50 and this morning, the VIX has hit a high of 12.53.? 12.50 should be resistance and I would expect the VIX to pullback.

Having said that, 11.72 should be support on a pullback.? If that can hold, a move up to 14.06 is possible.

 

$SPX:

Major level ? 2,281.30 **
Minor level ? 2,273.48 **
Minor level ? 2,257.82
Major level - 2,250.00
Minor level - 2,242.18
Minor level - 2,226.62
Major level - 2,218.80

The S & P 500 stalled yesterday at the minor 2,273.48 resistance level.? Yesterday?s high was 2,273.82, just 35 cents under the resistance level.

2,259.80 should offer major support.? Watch to see if the VIX reverses to the downside for the market to turn up.

QQQ:?

Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53 ***
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.84

The QQQ closed at 120.82.? At this point, 121.88 should be the objective.? 120.31 should offer minor support.

122.66 should be a difficult level to get through the first attempt.


TLT:?

Major level ? 125.00
Minor level ? 124.22
Minor level ? 122.66
Major level ? 121.88
Minor level ? 121.09
Minor level ? 119.53
Major level ? 118.75 *
Minor level -? 117.96 **
Minor level ? 116.41
Major level ? 115.62

The TLT dropped to close at 117.67 yesterday.? I continue to call for a long term objective to 115.62.? Today, the TLT has bounced up and 117.67 seems to be holding as short term support.? 117.97 should offer minor resistance.

Multiple time frames remain bearish.

 

GLD: ?

Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38 **
Major level: 106.25
Major level: 103.13
Major level: 100.00

The GLD has crossed into a bear trend on the daily chart.? The GDX is diverting from the metal and has not yet crossed into a bear trend; however, it is close.

I would expect the GLD to bounce around before heading down.?

108.98 is a minor resistance level and 108 should offer minor support.


XLE:

Major level ? 78.13
Minor level ? 76.56 **
Minor level ? 75.78 **
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 74.22
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53

The 75.78 level continues to hold as support.? I would expect a retest of 78.13, even if the XLE drops under 75.?

76.95 should offer minor resistance.


FXY:

Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
Major level: 82.81
Minor level: 81.64
Major level: 81.25 **
Major level: 79.69

Like the GLD, the FXY has crossed into a downtrend on its daily chart.? This tells us to expect further bearish action.? 82.03 should offer short term resistance.? Expect a drop to around 81.50 in the short term.

Short term a bounce around the 81.25 level is possible.? Longer term, the FXY is still bearish.


AAPL:

Major levels for Apple are 118.75, 115.63, 112.50, 106.
25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.

Apple almost hit the 118.75 objective.? Continue to buy against short term support.

Buying against support is still the best strategy.


WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: DIA, AVGO, MMM, BA, CB, NFLX, QQQ, CVX, JACK, NVDA, JPM, APC, WDC, MSFT, XLNX, CRUS, HIG, DFT

Bearish Stocks:? VRSN, VFC, KORS, CTRP, EXPR, OMER

Be sure to check earnings release dates

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