April 17, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
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KMI Long September $15 call @ $1.10

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The S & P 500 closed at 2,677.84. It closed up for the day 21.54 points. The range for the day was only 35.21 points, but that was because the market opened with a bullish gap of 13.80 points.

If you include the gap, the daily range was 35.13 points. Even including the gap, the range was less than the average true range, which now reads 45.50 points.

For the day, the daily price bar made a new daily high. But, it did close just under Friday's high, which was 2,680.26.

The low for the day was 2,665.16, which was about 10 points above the major 2,656.30 support level.

The S & P 500 did close above the next level, which is 2,675.83. This now sets up a scenario where if the S & P 500 can close above 2,675.83 today, the upside objective becomes 2,734.40.

And with the S & P 500 trading about 12 points higher before the open, I would expect a close above 2,675.83. This level should offer support on a pullback.

We were looking for some upside movement based on two factors. The first was that we expected the VIX to head lower. The second factor was that the short term 30 minute chart for the S & P 500 had already crossed into an uptrend. This implies that short term momentum is shifting to the upside.

The 60 minute chart for the S & P still remains in a downtrend and the midband, which is the 253 day average is 2,690.77.

Based on the pre market activity, the market should open right around the midband. The S & P 500 will have to clear the 2,690.77 level to continue higher. If it takes out the midband, it should act as support.

NFLX shares are trading to the upside about $20 after reporting last evening.

Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94

The VIX closed at 16.43 yesterday, just under the minor 17.19 level. This now implies that if the VIX closes under 17.19 today, it should test 12.50 again.

17.19 should now be resistance. And I would expect strong resistance at 18.75.

Minor resistance is at 17.97 and minor support at 15.63.

$SPX:

Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83 <
Major level: 2,656.30 ****
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
Minor level: 2,519.53
Major level: 2,500.00

With the S & P 500 closing at 2,677.84, it now sets ups a scenario where if it can close above 2,675.83 today, it should make a run to 2,734.40.

Minor support is at 2,661.10 and 2,673.30.

QQQ:

Minor level: 165.63 **
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50

The QQQ closed at 162.60, taking out the 162.50 level. Look for minor support at 162.11.

Next minor level on the upside is 165.63.

IWM:

Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91 **
Major level: 153.13 <
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22

The IWM closed at 155.37. The objective for the IWM should be to 156.25.

154.69 should be minor support and at 153.91.

Technical support is also right at the midband on the 60 minute chart, which happens to be 153.79.

TLT:

Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 **
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70 <
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36

The TLT closed at 120.94. The TLT dropped to a low of 120.18 before recovering to close at 120.94.

A close today above 120.70 and the TLT should test 121.88.

120.51 is minor support. And also at 120.70.

GLD:

Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13 <
Minor level: 127.35 ***
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00

The GLD closed at 127.63. The GLD came within 8 cents of the 128.13 level, which should be resistance.

To move higher, the GLD needs to clear 128.13. To move lower, it will need to break under 127.34.

XLE:

Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10 <
Minor level: 69.53 **
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63

The XLE closed at 72.14. It closed above the 71.88 level, which we were looking for.

Next level on the upside is 72.66. If the XLE clears 72.66, it should run the 75 - 76 area.

Minor support is at 71.88.

FXY:

Major level: 90.63
Minor level: 90.43
Minor level: 90.04
Major level: 89.84 <
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06

The FXY closed at 89.44. The FXY bounced as expected. Support should now be at 89.36.

On the upside, the FXY needs to clear 89.55 to move higher.

AAPL:

Minor level: 178.91
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78 **
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50

Apple closed at 175.82. If Apple can close above 175.78 today, it should run up to 178.13.

175 should now be major support. Watch the 176.56 level. If Apple clears this price, I would expect it to continue higher.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: BDX, LLL, WYNN, CMI, MON, CVX, EOG, VRSK, VLO, HLF, MLNX, MPC, OXY, HP, DLB, NTAP, APC, CLR, MGA

Bearish Stocks: CMG, MLM, CB, EFX, SMG, TAP, UAL, D, CCL, TSRO, WAGE

Be sure to check earnings release dates.