April 23, 2025

 

(TRUMP WAS FORCED TO EAT HIS WORDS)

 

April 23, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

President Trump has indicated that he will lower the tariffs on Chinese goods, after acknowledging that the current trade war between the world’s two largest economies cannot last.

Trump has said the tariff won’t be 0, but it won’t be anything like 145 per cent.

The IMF has forecast a significant slowdown in global growth due to Trump’s tariffs and has slashed its US growth forecast from 2.7 per cent to 1.8 per cent, due partly to the tariff program.

The IMF has also cut Australia’s 2025 growth forecast from 2.1 per cent to 1.6 per cent, a cost to the economy of about $13 billion.

IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas said the fund was not forecasting a US recession because the US economy was “coming from a position of strength.”

That position of strength will be a needed buffer over the next couple of years.

 

HEADLINE CORNER

American consumers and companies are likely to be the biggest tariff victims.

Travellers are avoiding the US.

Airlines see steep declines in travel to and from America.

 

GOLD UPDATE

You will see that gold has dropped from its record high of $3,500 yesterday. 

I’m watching the price action closely, and if gold falls $400 from its peak – breaks $3100 - and you are short-term to medium-term focused, I suggest you close some gold trades/stocks.

If you are long - term focused, hold.

I will be able to give you a better update next week after I see more price action this week.

 

BITCOIN UPDATE

Bitcoin is $93k+ as I write this, and I am expecting it to keep rallying, as it appears to have made a bottom. 

When the US stock market was tanking on Monday, Bitcoin was quietly rising and has continued to gain ground.

Gerry O’Shea, Head of Global Market Insights at Hashdex, comments that more “investors seem comfortable with the view that Bitcoin is a form of ‘digital gold’ that can perform independently from equities and act as a risk-off asset during periods of uncertainty.”

Hold your position in Bitcoin and your options/stock on (MSTR) and (IBIT).

 

S&P500 UPDATE

The index rallied yesterday, and futures are up strongly this evening.  The index may rally for the short term. ($4800 - $5500/$5700) Expect wide ranging pattern behaviour.  However, I don’t believe we have seen the bottom yet.  So, don’t get complacent that all is now rosy in the world.

When we do see the bottom, it will be the buying opportunity of the century.

 

QI CORNER

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

 

WELL-BEING CORNER

 

A wallaby in my backyard enjoying a grassy patch in the sunshine.

 

Cheers

Jacquie