While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
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Short May 1st - $20.50 Call @ $0.50
ET Long at $7.50
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AGNC Long at $13.19
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MFA Long at $4.20
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KEY Long at $10.72
KEY Short April 24th - $11 call @ $0.32
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There is one position that expires today and that is the short $11 call on KEY. Hold the position and if I suggest an adjustment, you will receive a separate email.
Yesterday the S & P 500 ended up closing 1.51 points lower on the day. For the day, the S & P closed at 2,797.80.
The high for the day ended up at 2,844.90 or about 32 points above the major 2,812.50 level.
After topping out, the S & P dropped to a low of 2,794.26, which was about 21 points above the minor 2,773.45 level.
The end result was that the day closed 12.62 points below the open. And it closed the day at 7% of the range of the daily bar.
This does suggest that yesterday's low of 2,794.26 should be violated before the high of 2,844.90.
Resistance from yesterday should be at 2,805 and if that level is violated, the next level is 2,819.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 17 points higher. This projects to an open around 2,815 or just under the midpoint of 2,819. If the S & P can clear this level, watch for a run to the high of 2,844.90.
The weekly bar through yesterday is forming an inside bar. That is, it has a lower high and a higher high.
And the midpoint of the bar through Thursday's close is 2,798, which is right where the market closed yesterday.
And the weekly bar is contracting, which is what you would expect with an inside bar.
The range is 142, which is 77% of the weekly average true range.
If the week moves to the weekly average true range, it would project to a high of 2,910 or to a low of 2,686.
The other scenario for today would be that the market contracts and the weekly price bar closes with an inside bar.
This would suggest we will see the expansion next week.
With the S & P and the VIX diverging, this does suggest that a market turn is coming. Both the S & P and the VIX lower on the day.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.10
Minor level: 44.53 **
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.40 **
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84 **
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 41.38. The VIX closed .60 points lower for the day.
The VIX broke under 39.84 and managed to close above it. Watch to see if the VIX can clear the major 40.62 level.
41.60 is resistance level. And if the VIX cannot cleart this level, I would expect it to move lower.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,773.45 **
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,797.80.
Watch for a test of 2,812.50. If the S & P can clear this major level, look for support at 2,812.50. The S & P should open right around this level. If it cannot hold it, look for the market to drop.
The 2,806 are is the key technical level. It should hold as support with a projected open above it.
QQQ:
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 210.93 **
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
The QQQ closed at 210.52. With a second close under the minor 210.93 level, a drop to 206.25 would be expected.
The 211.50 area is a key technical level. If this holds as support, the QQQ should move higher.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 120.34. The lower band should now act as support, which is 110.
The IWM did cross into an uptrend on its 60 minute chart. And the IWM is right at the midband. The midband is 111.30 and the IWM will need to hold this level to head higher.
Support should be around the 119.50 area.
TLT:
Minor level: 164.85 **
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
The TLT closed at 170.44. The TLT is trading right at the upper band on its daily chart, which is 170.80.
Watch this level today. To move higher, the TLT needs to move above the upper band. If it can't, look for lower prices.
This tells us the TLT is overbought and that the upper band will be retested after it closed back inside it.
Support should be around 170. And 173 should be resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72 **
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
The GLD closed at 163.34. The GLD closed above the major 162.50 level and is approaching the upper band, which is 166.
160 should be support and resistance is at 165.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 34.54. Watch the lower band.
The lower band is 28.93 and should now be support.
33 should be support and resistance is at 36.
AAPL:
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00 <
Minor level: 271.88
Minor level: 265.63
Major level: 262.50 <
Apple closed at 275.03. Apple held the major 275 level. Watch this level today.
Apple has crossed into an uptrend on the 60 minute chart. And the 265 area should be technical support.
Minor resistance is around 278. A break above this level and Apple moves higher.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, SHOP, CHTR, NFLX, LMT, HUM, DPZ, ADBE, COST, BDX, NVDA, LRCX, VRTX, RNG, AAPL, BABA, ADSK, WST, COUP, KLAC
Bearish Stocks: GATX, LYV, BDC, LUV, DDS, PRA, CAJ, MLHR, SDS
