April 30, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35

SNAP Long at $14.54
Premium Collected - $0.65
Short April 27th - $15 call @ $0.35

TEVA Long $18.06
Short April 27th - $18.50 call @ $0.35
Premium collected - $0.35

KMI Long September $16 call @ $1.00

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Both short call positions expired on Friday. Those were the calls on SNAP and TEVA. Both companies report this week, so I will be looking to sell another round of calls going into earnings.

Look for alerts to follow on each position.

Today closes out the month of April 2018. The month opened at 2,633.45 and closed Friday at 2,669.91. The midpoint of the monthly price bar is 2,635.65.

At this point, price is trading above the midpoint, so the month of April is shaping up to be a bullish month. The S & P 500 would have to drop about 35 points today to close under the midpoint.

I also want to point out that the upper extreme bollinger band on the monthly chart is 2,575.83. So, at this point the S & P 500 is trading about 95 points above the upper band.

As long as the market remains above the upper band, the bull market is still intact.

For the day, the S & P 500 closed slightly to the upside. It was up 2.97 points for the day. The range for the day was 18.34 points. With an average true range of 39.10 points, the market contracted less than 50% of the average.

This tells us to expect an expansion.

Support from Friday's daily bar is 2,668.

For the week, the S & P 500 formed a hammer bar. Even though, for the week the market closed lower than the open, and slightly lower than last week, it did close towards the upper range of the bar.

It closed at 78% of the weekly price bar.

Support from last week's weekly bar should be at 2,648. Also, the close should be a level of support or resistance depending upon where price is trading.

Finally, the S &P 500 is trading just under the midband on the 60 minute chart. That level is 2,678.22.

The market will have to clear this level to head higher.

Earnings continue this week. And Friday we will get the non farm payroll at 8:30AM EST.

Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94

The VIX closed at 15.41. It closed 22 cents under the minor 15.63 level.

Resistance should be at 16.41. And if the VIX can close under 14.84, I would expect a drop to 12.50.

$SPX:

Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83 **
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58

Support should be at the major 2,656.30 level. To move higher, the S & P 500 will need two closes above 2,675.83.

Minor support is at 2,666. And 2,653.80 should also be a support level.

QQQ:

Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38 **
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50

The QQQ closed at 162.09. The QQQ will need two closes above 165.63 to move higher.

Minor support should be at 160.94. Also, the midband on the 30 minute chart is 161.11, which should be support as well.

IWM:

Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91 **
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22

The IWM closed at 154.69. Looking for a bounce up to 156.25.

The IWM did clear the midband on the 60 minute chart. That level should now be support. The midband is 154.51.

154.69 is also a short term support level.

TLT:

Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14 **
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63

The TLT closed at 118.89. The low on Friday was just above the minor 118.36 level.

The TLT continues to bounce from its oversold condition. 117.97 should be minor support. Watch to see if the TLT can close above 119.14.

GLD:

Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44

The GLD closed at 125.50, closing 50 cents above the major 125 level.

125 should now be support. To move higher, the GLD will need two closes above 125.78.

XLE:

Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66 **
Major level: 71.88 <
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75

The XLE closed at 73.82. The target should still be up to the 75 level.

If the XLE can clear 75, it tells us it should continue higher. 73.83 is minor support. And minor support is at 73.44.

FXY:

Minor level: 90.04
Major level: 89.84 <
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70
Major level: 87.50

The FXY closed at 87.84. The FXY closed 34 cents above the major 87.50 level. Same as yesterday. I am looking for a bounce here.

If it breaks under 87.50, look for the FXY to continue lower.

AAPL:

Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94 **
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25

Apple closed at 162.32. At this point, if Apple closes under 160.94 for two days, it should drop to 156.25.

163.28 should be minor support.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: BA, HUM, FDX, STZ, AET, COST, AET, RHT, FFIV, CVX, EOG, VLO, CTXS, EXP, MSFT, AZPN, WMT, MPC, CFC, FSLR, MLNX, ESRX, NKE

Bearish Stocks: NTES, AVGO, EA, VMC, DIS, CHKP, OLED, SWKS, QRVO, IRBT, INCY, LUV, CLVS, CRUS

Be sure to check earnings release dates.