April 6, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

AMC Long at $15.27
Short April 20th-$15.50 call @ 0.60
Premium Collected - $3.70

UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35

VRX Long at $16.40
Short April 6th-$16.50 Call @ ($0.50)
Premium Collected - $0.50

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Today, we have one position that expires.  That is the short $16.50 call on VRX.  VRX closed yesterday under the strike price.  If the calls expire, you will book the profit from selling the calls today and I will look to sell more calls next week.

I have not mentioned this topic in a while, but the buybacks for March should be posted in the members by Monday.

Buybacks continue to be a driving force in this bull market. Last month, there were $9.3 Billion dollars of buybacks announced. This was actually less than the $75 Billion announced in February.  

Yesterday, the S & P 500 closed 18.15 points to the upside.  It closed at 2,662.84. this put the market back above the major 2,656.30 level.

Based on the pre market activity, the S & P 500 should about 17 points to the downside.

This projects an open around 2,646.  The minor 2,636.75 level should offer support. 

With both the 30 minute and 60 minute charts in downtrends, a pullback here is not unexpected.

Watch the VIX for a reversal to the downside to help time any long entries.

Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX: 
 
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00 
Minor level: 23.44 **
Minor level: 20.31 
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94 

The VIX closed at 18.94 yesterday.  The VIX traded under the 18.75 level, but managed to close above it.

18.75 is a key level.  If the VIX closes two days under 18.75 it should head down to 12.50 again.

On the downside, 17.19 should be minor support.  And on the upside, look for 19.53 as resistance.

We expected the VIX to move to 18.75, but a bounce here would not be unexpected.

$SPX: 

Major level: 2,734.40 
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83 
Major level: 2,656.30 **
Minor level: 2,636.75 
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10 
Minor level: 2,558.58 
Minor level: 2,519.53 
Major level: 2,500.00

The market rallied back above the  2,65630 level yesterday. At this point, minor support should be at 2,627 and 2,651.

Average true range for the S & P 500 is 48.78 points, so we should expect large daily ranges.

QQQ:  

Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50 
Minor level: 159.38 **
Minor level: 153.13 **
Major level: 150.00  
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50

The QQQ closed at 160.65, closing above the 159.38 resistance level. 162.50 should offer some resistance.  

And support should be at 157.81.

IWM:

Minor level: 153.91 
Major level: 153.13 
Minor level: 152.35 <
Minor level: 150.78 **
Major level: 150.00 
Minor level: 149.22 
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88

The IWM closed at 153.42.  The IWM closed above the 153.13 level.  We were looking for a move up to this level.

At this point, I would expect support at 151.56.

150 should now be major support.

TLT:  

Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27 
Major level: 121.88 
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70 
Major level: 120.31 
Minor level: 119.92 <
Minor level: 119.14 
Major level: 118.75 
Minor level: 118.36 

The TLT closed at 119.79. At this point, support should be at 119.14. The daily chart has moved into a downtrend.

Sell rallies.

GLD:  

Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13 
Minor level: 127.35 
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22 
Minor level: 122.66 
Major level: 121.87

The GLD closed at 125.80.  Looking for a retest of 125.  At this point, 127.34 should be resistance.

125 should continue to be support.   Watch this level. A break under 125 and the GLD should head lower.

XLE: 

Minor level: 76.95 
Major level: 76.56 
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39 
Major level: 75.00 
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53 
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97 
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 

The XLE closed at 68.59.  Yesterday's took out the 69.75 level.

67.58 should be minor support.  Overbought short term.

FXY:

Major level: 92.19
Minor level: 92.00
Minor level: 91.61 
Major level: 91.41 
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83 **
Major level: 89.06 
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48 <
Major level: 88.28 
Minor level: 88.09 

The FXY closed at 89.17.  89.28 is a short term support level. A break under that and it should continue lower.

The FXY is continuing its sell off from the upper band.

AAPL:

Minor level: 178.91 
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78 
Major level: 175.00 
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50

Apple closed at 172.80.  Biased for a move up to 175.

170.31 should be minor support.  173.56 is a technical resistance level.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: DPZ, SBAC, GWW, AMT, RL, CCI, EXP, PSX, LULU, PGR, PEG, DK, WY, CNQ, LPX, MDU

Bearish Stocks: TSLA, WHR, ALXN, ZBH, SWKS, ALB, ALK, MDSO, DIS, WAGE, SIG, WPZ, JNPR, BITA

Be sure to check earnings release dates.