August 1, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

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Yesterday closed out the month of July and all indications are that the bull is alive and well.

For the month, the range actually expanded. The range for July was 149 points. And average monthly true range is 123 points. So, July monthly range was about 20% great than the average.

And for the month, the S & P 500 closed at 79% of the monthly price bar. This puts the odds of a new high at almost 80%.

Support from the July monthly bar should be in the 2,760 to 2,773 area.

And the market is well above the upper band on the monthly chart. The upper band is 2,644.24. So the market closed out almost 200 points higher than the upper band.

Yesterday, the market bounced into the monthly close.

If closed out at 2,816.29. It closed up 13.69 points on the day.

Support from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 2,813 to 2,816 area.

Apple reported last night and is trading about $8 higher. BIDU is off about $14 after reporting.

Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about two points lower. Watch the support level from yesterday's daily bar.

Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94

The VIX closed at 12.81. So, the VIX could not hold the 14.06 level and is almost back to the major 12.50 level. The high for the day was 14.12, just 6 cents above the 14.06 level.

12.50 should now be support. So, a break under 12.50 tells us the VIX should continue lower. And 13.28 should be minor resistance.

SPX:

Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00
Major level: 2,841.80
Minor level: 2,829.60 **
Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
Minor level: 2,780.78
Minor level: 2,756.33
Major level: 2,744.10

2,797.90 should still be support. Look for minor support at 2,805.20. And also at the 2,799.10 level.

2,817 is minor resistance on the upside. So, if the S & P 500 can clear this level, I would expect it to continue higher.

QQQ:

Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69 **
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75

The QQQ closed at 176.45. This puts the QQQ back above the major 175 level, which should offer support.

And minor support is at 175.78.

178.13 is minor resistance on the upside.

IWM:

Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63 <
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50

The IWM closed at 165.87. The IWM, similar to the QQQ, is back above a major level.

Resistance is at 167.19. Support should be at 164.84.

TLT:

Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92 **
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75

The TLT closed at 119.70. The TLT bounced from its oversold condition.

But, to move higher, it will need to close above 119.14 today.

119.53 is minor support now. 120.31 is minor resistance.

GLD:

Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19 <
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02 **
Major level: 115.63

The GLD closed at 115.93. It closed thirty cents above the 115.63 objective.

A break under the 115.63 level and the GLD should continue lower. 115.63 is a major level for the GLD.

Also, the GLD is right up against its lower band, which is 115.16. A bounce is expected.

XLE:

Major level: 78.13 <
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75

The XLE closed at 77.12. The objective for the XLE should be to 78.13.

Support should be at 76.95. And minor resistance is at 77.73.

FXY:

Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94 **
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
Minor level: 84.58
Major level: 84.38

The FXY closed at 85.58. 85.94 should be minor resistance.

On the downside, 85.35 is minor support. A break under this level and the FXY should continue lower.

AAPL:

Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75 <
Minor level: 192.19 **
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38

Apple closed at 190.29. Apple reported last night and is trading about $8 higher. This puts the open at around $198.

$198.44 is a key number on the upside. Watch to see if Apple opens above this level.

$196 should be support.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, ORLY, SPY, DIA, FLT, COST, AMGN, AET,
CXO, GRUB, EOG, UHS, BDX

Bearish Stocks: TSLA, ITW, WHR, SWKS, NXPI, JACK, LAD, SMG, WDC, SEIC, PZZA, WGO

Be sure to check earnings release dates.