August 11, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Current Positions

GOGO? Long at $19.93
Premium collected - $1.25

NCR Long Jan 15 $27 Call
NCR Short Jan 15 $32 Call
Net Debit - $1.70

?.......................................................................................

I mentioned yesterday that the S & P 500 had an inside bar on the weekly chart last week and a range contraction.

And that this usually leads to a range expansion.

Then yesterday, the S & P 500 has a daily range of just over 24 points.

The DOW had a range of just over 250 points.

As I mentioned yesterday, the average true range for the S & P 500 on a weekly basis is 45 points. So in one day, the market covered half of that.

Now the key will be to see the S & P can close above last week's high, which was 2,112.66.

A daily close above that level would be bullish and pave the way to a move up to 2,156.

Here are the key levels for the markets.

Stocks...
?
VIX: ?

Major level - 17.19
Major level - 15.63
Minor level - 14.45
Major level - 14.06 *
Minor level - 13.67
Minor level - 12.89
Major level - 12.50
Minor level - 12.11
Major level - 10.94

The VIX collapsed yesterday, closing down at 12.23 or just under the key 12.50 level.

The VIX would need two closes under 12.11 to continue down.

Resistance should be at 12.89 and 13.67.

S & P 500 Cash Index: ?

Minor level - 2,132.82
Major level - 2,125.00
Major level - 2,109.40
Major level - 2,093.80
Minor level - 2,089.90
Minor level - 2,082.00
Major level - 2,078.10
Minor level - 2,074.20
Major level - 2,062.50

2,078 level acted as support yesterday.? The low for the day was 2,080.98.

The 2,081 and 2,089.90 levels should act as support.
Next objective is 2,093.80.

Nasd 100 (QQQ): ?

Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 112.11
Minor level - 111.33
Major level - 110.94
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38

The QQQ is almost back to the 112.50 level ... and in one day.

A close above 111.33 today it becomes the objective.

Look for 110.09 and 111.33 to act as support.

TLT: ?

Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level - 122.66 ?
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 119.53 ?
Major level - 118.75
Major level - 115.63

The TLT pulled back yesterday and closed at 122.80, just a few cents above the 122.66 support line.

The TLT would need two closes under 122.66 for a move back to 121.88. ?

GLD:

Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.34
Major level - 100

The GLD popped up and closed at 105.72 yesterday.
The minor level of 107.03 should offer some resistance.

A move to 109.38 and a reversal back down at that level would tell me that the GLD needs more time to base before heading up.

XLE:

Major level -? 75 ?
Minor level - 74.21
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.09
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.96
Major level - 65.63
Major level - 62.50

The XLE also had a nice pop yesterday.
I mentioned yesterday, that if the 65.63 level holds as support, there should be a fast upmove.

Clearly in a downtrend, but the snapback could be fast.

Apple:

Apple had a nice push yesterday and was up over $4.
There is an open gap at around the $130 level, which would be a natural price objective.

Apple cleared the 118.75 resistance level and I would expect $125 to be a key level.? I will be watching the $125 level real closely for any opportunities.

Watch list:
Bullish Stocks:? PCLN, REGN, MLM, GD, STZ, NFLX, EXPE, KMB, CLX, HON, RAI, ALK

Bearish Stocks: IBM, RL, DDS, UNP, CVX, Z, DECK, XLE, FOSL,QCOM, GMCR

Be sure to check earnings release dates.