The range for the S & P 500 was only 16.45 points. Compared to an average true range (ATR) of 47.45 points, last week's range was only 35% of the ATR.
This contraction, coupled with a doji bar, makes you think that the market is ready to roll over.
Or is it that all institutions are waiting to hear from the Fed this coming Wednesday?
That is when the Fed will release the notes from their last meeting at 2:00 EST.
This past week's price action suggest that there will be an expansion this week.
Usually, expansions follow contractions, and vice versa.
There was also a divergence last week between the the markets and the VIX.
Both, the S & P 500 and the VIX closed to the upside.
The last time this happened was the week of June 3rd. The market sold off just over 128 points and bottomed just after the Brexit vote.
The S & P 500 hit the 2,187.50 objective again and is trading just under that level.
This level needs to be cleared for the market to head higher.? Preferably, I would like to see closes above 2,187.50 to consider the level cleared.
At this point, this has not happened.
Also, the VIX is at all time lows.? There is still objectives for the VIX down to 9.38,? but quite frankly, that is about as far down as I suspect it will drop.
The short call on FCX did expire on Friday.? I will be looking to sell more calls this week.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Minor level - 17.96
Major level - 15.63
Minor level - 14.85
Minor level - 13.28 *
Major level - 12.50 *
Minor level - 11.72 *
Minor level - 10.15
Major level - 9.38
With the VIX closing under 11,72 again, the objective should be down to 9.38.
Minor levels are 12.11 and 10.94.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Major level - 2,250.00
Minor level - 2,234.38
Minor level - 2,203.12 *
Major level - 2,187.50 **
Minor level - 2,171.88 *
Minor level - 2,140.62
Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50
To move up to 2,250, the S & P 500 will need two closes above 2,203.12.
To move down to 2,125, the market will need two closes under 2,171.88.
Minor levels are 2,195.30 and 2,179.70.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 120.31
Minor level - 117.19
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.85
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
Objective should be to 118.75.
Minor levels are 117.38 and 117.
TLT:?
Major level - 143.75
Minor level - 142.96
Minor level - 141.41
Major level - 140.63
Minor level - 139.85
Minor level - 138.28 *
Major level - 137.50
Minor level - 136.72
Major level - 134.38
The TLT bounced up and hit the 140.63 level on Friday.
141.41 should be resistance and 139.84 should offer some support.
GLD:
Major level - 131.25 **
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91 *
Major level - 128.13 *
Minor level - 127.35 *
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125.00
Minor level - 124.22
To move lower, the GLD will need two closes under 127.35.? It closed just above that Friday, at 127.40.
128.91 should offer resistance.? Support should be at 127.34.
XLE:
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41 *
Major level - 65.63 *
Minor level - 64.85
Minor level - 63.28
Major level - 62.50
The XLE closed at 68.70 on Friday, just 5 cents under the 68.75 level.
69.14 should be minor resistance and 68.36 should offer minor support.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
107.81 should be a support level. The objective should be up to 112.50.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: PCLN, AMZN, ULTA, LMT, AVGO, RTN, IBM, FLT, WAT, GD, LH, CXO, XEC, SLG, EW, ASML
Bearish Stocks:? ATHN, LNKD, GILD, MD, DISH, RDY, WDC, HIG, FSLR, LPNT, CBI
?
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
