August 3, 2026
(WILL SEASONALITY GRIP THE MARKET ACROSS AUGUST & SEPTEMBER THIS YEAR?)
August 3, 2026
Hello everyone
WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR
Monday, August 3
9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Manufacturing final (July)
10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (June)
10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (July)
Earnings: Clorox, TKO Group Holdings, Palantir Technologies, the Williams Cos., Vertex Pharmaceuticals, ON Semiconductor, Diamondback Energy, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Marriott International, Loews, Tyson Foods, the Progressive Corp.
Tuesday, August 4
10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (June)
10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (June)
10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (June)
Earnings: Prudential Financial, Advanced Micro Devices, DaVita, Wynn Resorts, Booking Holdings, Paramount Skydance, The Mosaic Co., Jacobs Solutions, International Flavors & Fragrances, Gilead Sciences, Emerson Electric, Devon Energy, Health peak Properties, Arista Networks, Amgen, Assurant, Sysco, W.W. Grainger, Public Service enterprise Group, Cummins, TransDigm Group, Rockwell Automation, Duke energy, Broadridge Financial Solutions, Pfizer, Zebra Technologies, Merck & Co., Kimberly-Clark, Caterpillar, Apollo Global Management, Revvity, Gartner, DuPont de Nemours, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Waters, Qnity Electronics, NRG Energy, McDonald’s Fidelity National Information Services, Marathon Petroleum.
Wednesday, August 5
8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (July)
9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Services final (July)
10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (July)
Earnings: CF Industries Holdings, MetLife, Costco Wholesale, McKesson, Block, Sandisk, Ebay, Applovin’, Expedia Group, Axon Enterprise, Western Digital, Texas Pacific Land, Solventum, Occidental Petroleum, News Corp., Motorola Solutions, Honeywell Aerospace, DoorDash, Atmos Energy, APA, Allstate, Albemarle, Phillips 66, Insulet, Uber Technologies, Global Payments, Eli Lilly, Walt Disney Co., Zimmer Biomet, CVS health, The Kraft Heinz Co.,
Thursday, August 6
8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (08/01)
8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs preliminary (Q2)
8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q2)
10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (June)
Earnings: Republic Services, Gen Digital, Aflack, The Trade Desk, Akamai Technologies, ResMed, Consolidated Edison, Airbnb, Ralph Lauren, Zoetis, Howmet Aerospace, Fastenal, Evergy, Datadog, ConocoPhillips, Viatris, Molson Coors Beverage, Warner Bros, Discovery, Kenvue, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Fiserv, Constellation Energy.
Friday, August 7
8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (July)
8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (July)
8:39 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (July)
8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (July)
8:39 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (July)
8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (July)
3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (June)
Earnings: Take-Two Interactive Software, PPL, Vistra.
There are hurdles aplenty to get through this week.
Momentum carried the stock market at the end of last week, but can it continue this week?
Mr Leopold Aschenbrenner ignited a roller coaster ride in the market last week. He was forced to unwind many of his hedge fund trades following big losses in artificial intelligence stocks. The unwind at his hedge fund, Situational Awareness, added to the resurgence.
The bounce we got last week implies some near-term upside, but will the broader market be able to push through to the upside convincingly? If it doesn’t, we may stall out and roll over for more downside in search of a more solid bottom.
Next week’s jobs report is expected to show an OK labour market. The U.S. economy is expected to have added 87,500 nonfarm payrolls in July, up from 57,000 jobs the previous month, according to FactSet consensus estimates. The unemployment rate is also set to edge higher, to 4.3% from 4.2%.
Earnings season rolls on this week. We will get a better insight into the health of the consumer this week with reports from McDonald’s, Kraft Heinz, and Costco Wholesale.
Although we had big tech reports last week, we do still have some tech companies delivering numbers this week that we need to keep an eye on. These include Palantir Technologies and Advanced Micro Devices.
Many investors remain bullish on the market, particularly after the strong numbers delivered by big tech last week. According to FactSet data, aggregate corporate profits for S&P500 companies are tracking to grow more than 47%.
It is important to note that the path will not be linear. There are challenges ahead, including the fast-approaching midterm elections and the interest rate outlook. Additionally, seasonality is set to be a potential dark cloud, with August and September historically weak months for stocks.
So, let’s see if the market can push through.
Situational Awareness suddenly became very situationally aware last week
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund went from managing around $45 billion to around $10 billion in the span of three days after being forced into selling off its listed-stock positions. A reversal in the momentum of AI stocks triggered losses and set off margin calls and compulsory sales. The hedge fund owned companies that supplied chips, data centres, power and other infrastructure behind the AI boom. Public filings showed large stakes in Nebius, Bloom Energy, Sandisk, Core Weave, SharonAI and IREN as of March 31. By July 29 last week, those shares had fallen between 50% and 78% from recent peaks.
The shorts the hedge fund held as a hedge rallied, which compounded the carnage.
But someone always benefits from these painful drawdowns. Ken Griffin’s Citadel hedge fund reached a deal to buy the fund’s publicly traded assets at a good price.
The Yen gets support from the U.S.
If you have looked at the Yen recently, you will have noticed some significant movement off the bottom. Due to some wringing of hands from both Japan and the U.S., a coordinated intervention took place as there were real concerns over U.S. Treasury markets and Japan’s financial system.
Before the coordinated response, the Yen had been hovering at multi-decade lows, sliding to 163.73 per dollar last Thursday before rebounding to 157.57 on Friday.
The coordinated intervention was the first U.S.-Japan joint operation to buy yen since 1998.
As Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, the U.S. had good reason to step in. It was seeking to avoid a scenario where Japan would have to dump large quantities of Treasuries to finance unilateral intervention.
But will it make a difference long-term? It might for a while. However, for real change to happen, the Bank of Japan needs to implement structural change in underlying policies if there is to be any hope of a sustained yen rebound.
HEADLINE CORNER
Australia ends the fuel excise discount as at midnight August 2, returning the flat tax rate to its full standard amount of 53.7 cents per litre for petrol and diesel.
The Commonwealth Games have come to an end in Glasgow, with Delta Goodrem performing at the closing Ceremony. Australia secured 70 gold medals, and a total tally of 171 medals.
MARKET UPDATE
S&P500
The index is still in a tight range within a pennant pattern, and I am still looking for an upside breakout to confirm this price action as a continuation pattern.
We find support around 7370, 7300, and 7230 and resistance at levels ~ 7515,7560 and 7620.
GOLD
The shiny metal has been ranging, possibly forming a triangle, which could mean more downside to new lows below the June $3943 low. However, slowing momentum keeps us on our toes to be aware of a bounce. If we do break the $3900 level, we could be on our way to as low as $3300. This would take place over many months.
Support is found at 3970, 3945/50, and 3860. Resistance is seen at around 4135/40, 4200, and 4240.
BITCOIN
Bitcoin has been showing some very tight ranges. Downside to around 57k is still favoured. But after this new low is reached, we should see a reasonable bounce, which will probably get investors very excited. But this bounce could still be followed by further new lows.
Support is seen at around 61, 57 and 55, and resistance is found at 65, 70 and 70.75/71.
WTI CRUDE
WTI Crude turned lower as Trump called off strikes on Iran. (Haven’t we heard that before??) It feels like there is market manipulation going on in the oil market. That top around 92 has held well. We could see more wide swings as the geopolitical situation continues to sway markets care of Trump’s notes on Truth Social. Support is seen around 70, 65, and 60. Resistance is seen at levels 85,87.50 and 90/92.
HISTORY CORNER
On August 3
2004 – French photographer Henri Cartier-Bresson – who was a master of street photography, capturing what he called “the decisive moment” – died at age 95.
1992 – the American revisionist western Unforgiven had its world premiere, and it later won four Academy Awards, including best director for Clint Eastwood, who also starred in the drama, and best picture.
1984 - American gymnast Mary Lou Retton won the all-around event at the Los Angeles Games, becoming the first American woman to win an individual Olympic gold medal in gymnastics.
The Nautilus voyages below the North Pole
On this day in 1958, the U.S. atomic submarine Nautilus passed beneath the thick ice cap of the North Pole, an unprecedented feat.
1941- American entrepreneur and domestic lifestyle innovator Martha Stewart was born.
1921 – A day after being acquitted on insufficient evidence – largely because key evidence had disappeared from the grand jury files, eight Chicago White Sox players were banned from baseball for life, accused of receiving bribes to intentionally lose the 1919 World Series.
1900 – American journalist Ernie Pyle, who was one of the most famous correspondents of World War II, was born.
1778 – the opera house La Scala opened in Milan with a performance of Antonio Salieri’s Europa riconosciuta.
1492 – Columbus sets sail
Hoping to find a westward route to India, Christopher Columbus on this day in 1492 set sail on his first transatlantic voyage, departing from Palos, Spain, with three small ships – the Nina, Pinta, and Santa Maria. Although he was an accomplished navigator, Columbus misjudged the Earth’s size and never reached Asia. Instead, he reached the Caribbean, unknowingly opening sustained contact between Europe and the Americas. His voyage launched an era of European exploration, colonization, and exploitation that profoundly reshaped – and often devastated – the Indigenous peoples of the Americas.
QI CORNER
Vincentius Liony (Retired Leader)
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
Cheers
Jacquie
