Featured Trades: (BUY THE SUNHATS WHEN IT'S RAINING), (SPX) 1) Buy the Sun Hats When It's Raining. I don't think that we are going into recession immediately. I believe that we can eke out a few more quarters of 2% ish type growth before we put in the final top of the great bull market
Featured Trades: (RIP FOR AMERICA'S TRIPPLE A RATING), (TLT), (TBT) 2) RIP for America's Triple A Rating. At long last, after months of warnings, leaks, hand wringing, and speculation, Standard and Poor's has at last downgraded US Treasury bonds a notch to AA+. The change was the most telegraphed ratings change in history. You can
Featured Trades: (THE JULY NONFARM PAYROLL: ROCKETING BACK UP TO ZERO) 3) The July Nonfarm Payroll: Rocketing Back Up to Zero. The monthly nonfarm payroll report finally surprised to the upside, the much watched figure coming in at +117,000, well above a consensus of +90,000. The headline unemployment rate is back down 0.1% to 9.1%.
Featured Trades: (HERE'S WHERE TO WATCH FOR THE TURN), (GLD), (FXF), (FXY), (TLT) 1) Here is Where to Watch for the Turn. What to say about Thursday's market? The 'RISK OFF' trade had its finest hour. The Dow average WAS down 512 points, NASDAQ (QQQ) cratered by 135 points, oil (USO) was off $6, and
Featured Trades: (REPORT FROM EUROPE, PART V) 2) Report From Europe, Part V. My first morning in the Swiss mountain hamlet of Zermatt, home to the Matterhorn, I was awoken by an army platoon outside my door, fully armed with fixed bayonets. No, I was not being arrested for past indiscretions in the idyllic Alpine
Featured Trades: (THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS IS IN), (SPX), (VIX), 1) The Head and Shoulders Is In. Much of the selling that took the Dow down 265 points on Tuesday was generated by a clear 'head and shoulders top' pattern setting up on the charts. This occurs when you see three consecutive peaks on a
Featured Trades: (DO YOU REMEMBER WHEN'..?), (GLD), (INDU), (USO), (FXF) 3) Do You Remember When'?.? The stock market managed to eke out a modest 29 point gain today, the first time in nine trading days. If it had closed down a ninth day, it would have been the first time since 1978. I remember those
Featured Trades: (WHAT THE MARKETS ARE TELLING US), (SPX), (TLT), (TBT) 1) What the Markets Are Telling Us. I spent the morning doing a round robin with hedge fund trader friends of mine trying to figure how we all got this so horribly wrong. I did this as the (SPX) was ticking down to 1249
Featured Trades: (BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR) 1) Be Careful What You Wish For. Politicians are popping champagne bottles and celebrating the end of cantankerous negotiations over the debt ceiling. I say be careful what you wish for. Let me give you my quickie, back of the envelope analysis of the debt ceiling deal
Featured Trades: (GDP IS ANOTHER BUCKET OF COLD WATER) 1) GDP is Another Bucket of Cold Water. Another bucket of cold water was thrown on financial markets on Friday with the shocking release of Q2 GDP of 1.3%. The whisper number prior to the release was at 1.9%, and even this figure is far short
