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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 19, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
May 19, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(EXCHANGES LOSE CONFIDENCE)
(BTC), (COIN), (TGT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-19 16:04:272022-05-19 18:48:36May 19, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Exchanges Lose Confidence

Bitcoin Letter

Where there’s smoke, there is fire.

That is how you need to approach the crypto industry right now as systemic risks creep in.

Withdraw your money from Coinbase (COIN) immediately and switch to trading crypto-based ETFs on the New York Stock Exchange.

Why?

In the event the crypto exchange goes bankrupt, Coinbase says, its users might lose all the cryptocurrency stored in their accounts too.

Coinbase told us “crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings.”

Coinbase users would become “general unsecured creditors,” meaning they have no right to claim any specific property from the exchange in proceedings. Their funds would become inaccessible.

CEO of Coinbase Brian Armstrong is trying to swindle investors out of their money by putting in place the infrastructure to not return funds if bankruptcy happens.

To even talk about this in public is stirring unease and sowing mistrust within the management team there.

If Armstrong wanted a crypto winter, he is doing everything in his power to trigger it by his behavior by killing crypto adoption rates.

Bank accounts in the U.S. are protected by deposit insurance offered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. In the event a bank fails, the FDIC steps in to protect deposits up to $250,000, preventing depositors from going broke along with the bank.

Crypto exchanges are unsecure and not insured so that’s where the risk is.

As customers had to pay Coinbase a fee for every crypto transaction, the fintech generated rip-roaring growth over the last two years - revenue surged from less than $200 million in the first quarter of 2020 to $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. Similarly, net profit increased more than 26-fold from $32 million to $840 million.

Bitcoin dropping to under $30,000 from the high of $65,000 has been a catastrophic disaster for Coinbase.

They essentially rely on higher volume to build growth and when their customers are busy getting impoverished, it doesn’t set the stage for Coinbase to build higher trading volume.

Setting up management to secure a get out of jail-free card for utter failure is another issue I have as an investor.

At the bare minimum, the optics are terrible, and questions arise about fiduciary duty which could result in a tsunami of lawsuits against Armstrong and Coinbase.

Sadly, the price of Bitcoin, which was promoted as an inflation hedge has in fact proved to be the polar opposite.

In times of hyperinflation, people want physical stuff like food, medicine, gas, and housing. Not digital currency.

I do believe cryptocurrency is a great investment when people aren’t paying $6 per gallon of gasoline.

The sudden spike in energy costs was triggered by terrible foreign policy mistakes by the current administration.

Now everyone in the crypto industry is running around with their head cut off scared of potential liability to these digital coins and digital exchanges for which there is no historical precedent.

How does the court behave if a crypto exchange blows up?

Nobody has a clue.

This is where we are at this point in the crypto narrative and the bears are piling in like no other.

Target (TGT) reported dire earnings reporting severe margin contraction because of higher costs.

The net result is yet another ax to risk assets and crypto is one of the most speculative out there.

The rest of the year will be a tough slog for crypto and it won’t work itself out until inflation is back under control.

But as many people understand, the US Central Bank is not interested in taming inflation and is professional at downplaying any risk.

The result is that hyperinflation explodes, risk assets sell-off, and investors go to cash.

Brian Armstrong gleefully telling investors he will fleece us is just another strong signal and supportive data point of my overarching thesis.

Price of Bitcoin is on its way to $20,000 soon.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-19 16:02:042022-05-19 18:48:57Exchanges Lose Confidence
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - May 19, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“A.I. is probably the most important thing humanity has ever worked on.” – Said Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pichai.png 258 238 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-19 16:00:302022-05-19 18:49:33Quote of the Day - May 19, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 17, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
May 17, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SAM DROPS A BOMB)
(BTC), (FTX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-17 15:04:032022-05-17 19:11:36May 17, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Sam Drops a Bomb

Bitcoin Letter

One of the leading lights of the crypto industry CEO of crypto exchange FTX Sam Bankman-Fried dropped a bomb on the crypto industry and you are going to want to hear what he said.

Many crypto fanatics want to believe that crypto will one day replace the precious American dollar as the global reserve currency.

Walk down the street for a Starbucks latte and dish out some crypto.

Take an Uber to a friend’s house, and dish out some more crypto.

Bill, please!

Well, Bankman-Fried filled us in and out of any person in the world, he understands what’s going on.

Bitcoin will not be the future payment network.

That’s not its use case.

Bankman-Fried cited the inefficiency and high environmental costs as a prohibitive step to adopting crypto as the de facto payment network for the world.

He later says that crypto has scaling problems.

His opinion is highly incongruous with the hopes and dreams of what crypto set out to be and even though it doesn’t change anything in one day, it could adversely affect the incremental investors at a time when crypto prices and system risk have been going in reverse.

Countries such as El Salvador and the Central African Republic have adopted Bitcoin as a legal tender. But recent research by academics in the US found that Bitcoin has scarcely been used for daily payments in El Salvador, despite the rollout of bitcoin ATMs and other measures to encourage its use.

The 30-year-old billionaire, who has expanded FTX into one of the world’s largest virtual asset exchanges, said an alternative type of blockchain known as proof of stake, or other technological innovations, would be required to create a functional crypto payments network.

Ethereum has been working to move to a proof of stake system, which is intended to be less energy-intensive.

This is the only way it will work if the are billions of payments every millisecond and the network will need to digest this right through.

Crypto, in its current form, is woefully unprepared to operate at that capacity.

Other sharp criticisms of Bitcoin stem from the serious environmental concerns about the amount of energy needed to run proof of work cryptosystems.

Crypto regulators around Europe have been sniffing blood in a region that taxes everything to smithereens.

Mining bitcoin consumes more energy than many countries, including Norway and Sweden, according to Cambridge university’s Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index.

If crypto networks attempted to scale up to these billions of transactions per millisecond, costs would be uncappable and it could crash the network in one day.

Even if Bankman-Fried gave many investors the sour juice we didn’t want to drink, it’s highly positive to be real about what we are dabbling in.

Crypto isn’t the panacea investors are looking for and for the diehards, it won’t replace the US dollar and it won’t have a glorious network of daily payments.

Bankman-Fried alluded to the hope that Bitcoin could represent a safe store of value, but even saying that, look at what’s going in with stable coins and their values dropping by 99%.

There is a lot to sort out in the crypto world and the first six months have doled out a few crushing uppercuts.

I am highly bearish in the short-term on crypt assets and the altcoins is something nobody should touch as the stable coin fiasco could spill its other marginal coins.

 

BILLIONAIRE CRYPTO ENTREPRENEUR SAM BANKMAN-FRIED

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/bankman.png 486 846 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-17 15:02:372022-05-17 19:14:51Sam Drops a Bomb
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - May 17, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“I know tech better than anyone.” – Said Current President of the United States Donald J. Trump on his Twitter Account in 2018

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/donald-trump.png 205 252 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-17 15:00:312022-05-17 19:16:04Quote of the Day - May 17, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 12, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
May 12, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(LUNA BLOWS UP)
(BTC), (ETH), (LUNA), (UST), (MSTR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-12 17:04:312022-05-12 17:11:18May 12, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Luna Blows Up

Bitcoin Letter

Altcoins won’t age well and 99% of them will vanish before our eyes. The way in which they exit also may or may not cause financial contagion.

We need to stop the arrogance already.

Let’s just default quickly to Occam's razor and back of the envelope math shows that we can’t have 1,000’s of these crappy digital currencies masquerading as real ones.

We need a few good ones and that’s it.

Sure, we have tried and tested Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETC), but these other worthless pieces of code are hawked by mostly snake oil salesmen who are looking for a quick buck by preying on the naïve.

So don’t get greedy.

I hear many crypto enthusiasts tell me their strategy is to buy the cheapest and most obscure crypto possible and hope for a moonshot.

That’s a fools’ strategy and the money is better donated to cure world poverty.

So what am I really talking about?

The supposed stable coin UST and LUNA which was supposed to peg its value to the US dollar broke in a severe way as the algorithmic that was intended to uphold this balanced ratio went haywire.

10’s of billions of real dollars were wiped out from investors as the genius algorithms messed up in a big way.

This contagion has had the knock-on effect of dragging the price of Bitcoin and Ether down as many might assume a UST or LUNA holders might need to sell BTC to get some liquid currency.

It’s been a giant risk-off move for crypto in every nook of the asset class and even worse, a massive loss of confidence for the industry as a whole.

This was a gift to the detractors who say that crypto is run by a bunch of idiots or charlatans or something of that ilk.

The value of LUNA plunged on Wednesday as Terraform Labs creator Do Kwon laid out a plan to save its sister token, the stablecoin TerraUSD (UST).

In the last 24 hours, roughly $10 billion have been drained from LUNA. Its price has fallen 93% in that time from $32 to $2.25 per coin, with the price changing rapidly each minute. After skidding to a low of 30 cents per coin, UST has ratcheted up more than a quarter to 64 cents.

Down 30% in the last day after breaking its essential $1 peg over the weekend, UST trades at above 64 cents per coin while Terra’s LUNA token rebounded 61% to $2.25 after dipping below $1 at 9 a.m. New York time Wednesday.

In the first sniff of market turmoil, stablecoins have failed miserably and it also incentivizes government regulation to shut them down.

This of course gives ammunition to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to move stablecoins under his jurisdiction.

He would kill the development in a second by pelting it with so many fees, bureaucracy, delays, hidden regulations, and obstructions that stablecoins will be swept into the dustbin of history.

The contagion has led to Bitcoin falling lower than $29,000 and we are getting dangerously closer to the $21,000 threshold where MicroStrategy (MSTR) will get a margin call.

Sell every and any rally in Bitcoin, this loss of confidence can’t be understated and crypto has failed miserably to attract the incremental buyer in a rising rate environment.

Don’t catch a falling knife.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/luna-may1222.png 1110 936 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-12 17:02:502022-05-12 17:47:35Luna Blows Up
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - May 12, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“Most Americans agree that technology is going to eliminate many more jobs than it is going to create.” – Said American entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/andrew-yang.png 320 356 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-12 17:00:492022-05-12 17:10:43Quote of the Day - May 12, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 10, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
May 10, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ROCKING THE BOAT AT MICROSTRATEGY)
(MSTR), (BTC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-10 17:04:332022-05-10 18:40:03May 10, 2022
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