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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Another Path Gets Shut Down

Bitcoin Letter

The best-kept secret is that Portugal was one of the biggest beneficiaries of loose crypto restrictions for the past decade.

The bulk of the Mad Hedge Concierge client list is made up of numerous crypto investors that got into bitcoin at less than $100 to ride the wave up.

Yet, it is common knowledge that the United States treats digital currency as property and taxes it similarly to stocks or real estate.

Why have crypto holders been flocking to Portugal?

Crypto gains were not taxed at all for most of the 2010s and early 2020s.

It made sense for any crypto success to apply for Portuguese residence and take proceeds of the crypto in Portugal without losing a dime.

Over the past decade, Portugal has become an appealing destination for international residents, who have flocked to the country due to its more flexible visa and immigration options and overall affordability.

The weather and food are amazing.

Why do I suddenly bring up Portugal now if it is such a crypto tax haven?

The Portuguese government implemented a new cryptocurrency tax framework in its 2023 national budget, which has been in force since January 2023.

Within the nearly 450-page macroeconomic strategy and fiscal policy report, a small section established a 28% capital-gains tax on cryptocurrency gains made within one year.

However, gains realized after one year of holding the crypto assets remain exempt under the finalized law.

The Portuguese government also applies stamp duty (10%) on gratuitous transfers such as gifts and inheritances, and a 4% stamp-duty charge on crypto-service-provider commissions.

The framework was designed to treat crypto as equal to other industries and to establish a clear, standardized taxation environment. Twenty-eight percent is the standard capital-gains tax rate in the country.

If these new crypto taxes are implemented, it is nothing short of a disaster for crypto holders who trade short term even if the ones holding over one year are exempt.

Expect trading volume to plummet.

I can guarantee it will face a mass exodus, like India, as companies and investors flee to lower-tax nations.

At this point, it appears as if bad news is piling on top of bad news.

Governments around the world are strapped for cash as historical debt loads worry finance ministers.

There’s a massive hunt for the incremental tax dollar and crypto was the low-hanging fruit in Portugal.

I don’t recommend any Bitcoin investor to apply for Portuguese residence because it lost its tax-free advantage in 2023, even though long-term gains are still not taxed.

The interest in crypto is at a 10-year low with some of the biggest daily outflows occurring during the market stress events of 2022–2023; current long-term exchange flows in 2025 are more stable.

Moreover, large exchange outflows did occur during that 2022–2023 period, though current 2025 figures no longer match those extremes.

Investors have clearly lost interest in crypto which is why we are seeing sparse volatility.

Buyers and Sellers have both fled.

Now, cross Portugal off the list.

Moving forward, crypto investors must be nimble as the multiple crises around the world mean that governments will go after crypto dollars harder, giving fewer places to take proceeds for minimal or no tax.

These events are all highly negative for the price and health of Bitcoin.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-18 17:02:062025-11-17 02:37:53Another Path Gets Shut Down
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - October 18, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge," said the late Professor Stephen Hawking.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/hawking-1.png 345 474 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-18 17:00:132022-10-18 18:50:20Quote of the Day - October 18, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 13, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 13, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(LOOKING FOR A SAVIOR)
(BTC), (ETH), (CPI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-13 15:04:142022-10-13 20:02:29October 13, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Looking For A Savior

Bitcoin Letter

Bitcoin slipped to around $95,000 this week after a delayed U.S. inflation print and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary raised doubts about a near-term rate cut.

The result means that another modest adjustment in interest rates is already priced into the markets; traders are now focused on whether further cuts or hikes will follow.

There was some fleeting hope back in 2022 that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t need to tighten further, but those ideas were dashed as inflation surged. 

A similar dynamic persists in 2025: markets still swing whenever inflation surprises, even though today’s debate is about the timing of cuts rather than large hikes.

Let me remind readers that the US Central Bank employs over 10,000 Ivy League-trained economists earning well over $150,000, yet they are navigating a policy landscape still shaped by earlier missteps.

The longer the Fed allows persistent inflation to erode the health of the US economy, it could be argued that we might be living in an America with only rich and poor people in the future. While “hyperinflation” never arrived, multi-year price increases still stoke that concern.

How does this affect cryptocurrency?

In one word – devastating.

Crypto is reliant on low rates to fuel overperformance.

High liquidity is necessary too.

However, we diverged from those two pillars through 2023–2024, and only recently has easing begun to appear on the horizon.

Crypto, like physical gold, needs rates to be low to represent an attractive investment because of its speculative nature.

The uncertainty now centers on whether the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts into early 2026.

So what did the price of Bitcoin do upon hearing this news?

In 2022, Bitcoin slid toward $18,000 on similar macro fears. Today, it fell toward $95,000 as traders reassessed the timing of future rate cuts rather than hikes.

Cryptocurrencies had been trading mostly sideways at times earlier in 2025, but Bitcoin’s consolidation ranges now span tens of thousands of dollars, not hundreds.

That’s been a key shift, and a clear move lower this year led to correction lows near $74,000 for Bitcoin. Ether’s mid-2025 lows were near $3,500.

Clearly, there is a lot to worry about for readers who are heavy crypto traders.

Moderating but sticky inflation still leaves the economy vulnerable to price spikes heading into winter.

My guess is that upcoming high inflation data will show up in the form of elevated utility bills, particularly in natural gas.

The sabotage and geopolitical tensions that disrupted energy supply in prior years still echo through markets, and OPEC’s decisions continue to have global effects.

The negative events are just piling on top of each other at this point.

I just don’t see how Bitcoin sustains itself above six-figure territory in the short term.

If it does surpass $120,000 because of a bear-market rally, traders will take profits yet again, rinse and repeat.

Although equity markets may rally through the day, this remains another reminder of the strategic fragility of this alternative asset that once offered so much hope.

Crypto has turned into nothing more than an ultra-speculative asset that, in times of tight liquidity, goes on life support.

It remains volatile, and although institutional adoption and ETFs have added legitimacy, its price still fails many traditional store-of-value tests.

Sell any rally over $120,000 because it won’t last there long.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-13 15:02:212025-11-17 02:28:22Looking For A Savior
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - October 13, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“If the Starbucks secret is a smile when you get your latte... ours is that the Web site adapts to the individual's taste.” – Said Founder of Netflix Reed Hastings

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/hastings.png 408 322 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-13 15:00:252022-10-13 16:11:42Quote of the Day - October 13, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 11, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 11, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(KOWTOWS TO THE INSTITUTIONS)
(BTC), (ETH), (COIN), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 16:04:572022-10-11 16:26:34October 11, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Kowtows to the Institutions

Bitcoin Letter

Google allowing crypto payments to its cloud services from Coinbase Global (COIN) doesn’t move the needle.

COIN is the crypto exchange platform that has run into a litany of problems recently, from falling trading volumes and regulatory fines to shifting strategic focus.

The news is a footnote to the carnage that is really happening front and center in the crypto market.

Funnily enough, why would a customer choose to pay for Google’s cloud services through Coinbase when fees are still meaningful and alternative rails (cards, bank transfers) dominate?

Crypto isn’t cheap, and it doesn’t pretend to be.

Ether (ETH) remains infamous for its “gas fees.” In 2021, they averaged around $63 for one transaction, which contributed to its lag behind other networks.

In 2025, the network has improved (via upgrades like Dencun and protocol optimizations), but fee-peaks still occur and many users have migrated to layer-2s or alternative chains.

Bank ACH transfers are free or very low cost, and so are most debit/credit card purchases.

Even though El Salvador claims to be a crypto-first economy, most everyday transactions continue to be completed in cash or U.S. dollars.

At least crypto will now be allowed to transact on Google’s platform (or at least participate via some rails), which is a victory in itself, but I don’t believe this will catch on like wildfire.

Crypto is up against a Sisyphean task.

The Google Cloud infrastructure service will initially accept cryptocurrency or crypto-adjacent payments from a limited set of customers; the roll-out is far from universal. Meanwhile, Google has pivoted toward broader payments infrastructure, agentic AI commerce and blockchain layers.

Over time, Google may allow more customers to make payments via crypto or stablecoins but the emphasis is no longer solely “pay with Bitcoin/Ether” but “use stablecoins or tokenized rails.”

Coinbase will (or already does) earn a percentage of transactions that go through whatever rail they enable but the margin of that business remains tiny relative to its overall operations.

It remains high risk to hold crypto on the balance sheet. Coinbase no longer flags a large impairment charge the way it did in 2022, but it continues to grapple with volatility and shrinking core trading revenue. In Q2 2025, Coinbase’s revenue fell to about $1.5 billion, with consumer spot trading volumes down ~45% year-over-year.

Therefore, I expect Google (or Google’s payment rail) to charge a fee or apply a conversion spread to turn crypto in and out of fiat - just as before - or to prefer stablecoin/fiat rails entirely.

From the outside, this really does look like a marketing gimmick.

Blockchain technologies, such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs), have moved out of the “wild hype” phase; for Google’s cloud division the bigger focus now is on tokenized assets, stablecoin infrastructure, AI-agent payments, and building developer tools around these. 

Google has announced the Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), an open standard for AI-agent-led payments that supports stablecoins among other rails.

Previously, Google pushed for growth in major industries such as media and retail. This year, it started forming more teams around blockchain, payments infrastructure and “Web3” tooling but the narrative has shifted from “crypto payments” to “tokenized finance + AI commerce.”

However, I thought that crypto was going at its lone-wolf style hoping to create a parallel system to the fiat money system which it despises.

Apparently not.

Tying up with a mega-tech corporate firm sounds like they are giving up to me.

It seems as if the founding investors are ready to cash out and leave the die-hard crypto believers for a more stable income stream.

Annuity-like income stream is something many crypto firms lack and locating one is a hard sell.

Crypto was supposed to be “decentralized” but this appears to be a move that will offer Google the keys to Coinbase’s data while limiting them to lateral moves.

In short, this is a move that allows more centralization in the biggest crypto platform in the United States.

Growth was crypto’s calling card and that means parabolic growth possibilities are over.

Integrating with Google also means Google will have deep insight into how they can use Coinbase to profit from digital currencies - since Coinbase has agreed to onboard their data onto Google’s cloud infrastructure in some capacity.

Honestly, this is a bone-head strategic move for Coinbase, and my inclination would be to buy Google’s stock if one believes in crypto.

Desperation can trigger some unusual moves and we are seeing that in real time. But analyzing the bleak short-term prospects for crypto, this might be a move for survival rather than anything else.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 16:02:552025-11-17 01:37:43Kowtows to the Institutions
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - October 11, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“Every technological revolution takes about 50 years.” – Said Founder of Alibaba Jack Ma

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/jack-Ma.png 385 370 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 16:00:542022-10-11 16:27:38Quote of the Day - October 11, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 6, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 6, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MAX OUT CRYPTO)
(BTC), (MAXI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-06 15:04:402022-10-06 16:00:54October 6, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Max Out Crypto

Bitcoin Letter

One of the big knocks on the digital gold or crypto is that it doesn’t generate some type of annuity-like payment.

That’s right, it doesn’t.

It’s not like a rental property that pumps out dollars every month.

That honestly turns off a lot of people.

I get it.

Getting those Benjamins to fill pockets for investors is a comforting feeling.

Instead, crypto holders are rewarded by the appreciation of the asset itself.

Speculative investors must wait for the price of crypto to elevate and sometimes it doesn’t so investors can’t cash out.

For the first time in the history of crypto products, the ETF Simplify Bitcoin Strategy PLUS Income ETF (MAXI) is designed to solve that challenge.

It combines investments in the bellwether coin crypto bitcoin with derivative-based income-producing products.

The Simplify Bitcoin Strategy PLUS Income ETF (MAXI US) is listed on Nasdaq with an expense ratio of about 1.00%.

The fund’s options sleeve is actively managed and consists of opportunistically selling short-dated put or call spreads on the most liquid global equity indices.

The management of MAXI described the portion of income-generating opportunities as “padding.”

However, that doesn’t adequately describe the large risk of what they are actually doing.

They are talking about this ETF as if the “income” is almost guaranteed.

But the risk here is that selling option calls and puts can be extremely loss-making and they fail to disclose that to investors.

This type of Frankenstein investment is definitely an interesting spin on crypto products by combining a derivative portion to the speculative crypto part.

There are many moving parts to this and due diligence is necessary.

In addition to the high risk, the management fee is a big turn-off.

The fee is to basically fund the operation, but it’s no guarantee that the derivative portion of the portfolio will be successful.

They claim they will generate income by writing short-dated option spreads on the “most liquid global equity indices,” yet as of 2025 the portfolio is still dominated by exposure to the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), along with a small sleeve of listed call options and index-based spreads.

The opaqueness doesn’t sit well with me and it shouldn’t with you.

The prospectus explains that the “options overlay strategy will invest up to 20% of fund’s assets,” which remains true in current filings.

Therefore, it could either be 0 or 20% of the ETF capital exposed to complete losses because the traders bet on the wrong short-dated strategy.

Essentially, investors have no idea what they are investing in.

What if there are no “income generating” profits and they are all losses?

Surely, they must be refunded to the customers, but I highly doubt it.

Adding speculation on top of speculation usually ends up badly and that is exactly what personifies MAXI.

Buy it for the asset appreciation or avoid it, but then might as well just buy Bitcoin itself.

This ETF needs to be avoided at all costs.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-06 15:02:362025-11-17 01:19:06Max Out Crypto
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