Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
September 20, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE SAVIOR)
(BTC), (FTX), (SKYBRIDGE)

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
September 20, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE SAVIOR)
(BTC), (FTX), (SKYBRIDGE)

Enigmatic crypto investor Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of crypto exchange FTX, acquired a 30% stake in Anthony Scaramucci’s SkyBridge Capital, an alternative investment firm.
I believe this deal highlights the desperation the crypto industry currently faces.
I also don’t see the value in it.
Bankman-Fried is essentially the only prominent investor liquid enough to bank mediocre crypto infrastructure mostly because he has skin in the game and would potentially get shellacked with monstrous losses if crypto as an industry goes under.
Doing his best to prop up the mess is in his interests, otherwise, his brainchild FTX would suffer too.
As harrowing as this sounds, I don’t think crypto as an industry will go under, but the wounds get rawer by the day.
The deal was inked through SBF's venture-capital firm FTX Ventures and will support growth initiatives for SkyBridge.
SkyBridge will deploy the capital from FTX to buy $40 million in cryptocurrencies, which it will hold on its balance sheet.
SkyBridge investors are demanding redemptions from the fund ever since the price of Bitcoin has tanked causing anyone involved with the crypto industry a world of pain.
Many are anointing Bankman-Fried as the savior of crypto, but I would argue that this shows the inferiority of crypto as an industry.
It’s signaling that no other big names are coming to save crypto. No Marc Andreesen or anyone of that magnitude.
Crypto has shown it’s only viable when liquidity is in the process of loosening, and currently, the opposite is happening.
In fact, it appears as if liquidity will get even tighter heading into year-end.
And if that wasn’t bad enough, the integrity of the crypto industry has been under attack from all directions for quite some time.
Yet another explosive headline came out saying that a founder of a cryptocurrency investment research firm was accused by the SEC of promoting an initial coin offering without disclosing that he had been given incentives to do so.
Ian Balina, 33, promoted the SPRK token on social media platforms including YouTube and Telegram without revealing that he had been compensated by the company that offered it, the Securities and Exchange Commission said in a suit filed Monday in federal court in Austin, Texas.
It’s certainly a bad look that crypto is attracting such bad actors and the brand name downgrade just keeps getting clearer.
I believe crypto will weather this crypto winter but for the 10s of thousands of other crypto products, let’s call them collateral damage. Â
The next question is at what point does Bankman-Fried stop whipping his savior capital around and at what point does the crypto infrastructure get so bad there’s no way back?
Considering Bankman-Fried has wealth of around $24 billion, a $50-$70 million investment in some marginal crypto hedge fund is just a drop in the bucket for him.
SkyBridge doesn’t do that much, it just sells a crypto ETF, takes in fees for it, and markets it as a safer pair of hands to handle crypto for the investor. Investors can just go and buy crypto on Bankman-Fried’s FTX for a more direct way to invest in the same thing. Â
I do believe it’s worth it for Bankman-Fried to save these small companies now, to later unload them for a profit when Bitcoin recovers. He can afford the carry costs as he can pay in cash and avoid the high interest debt markets.
However, I do believe he will abstain from billion dollar purchases.
Even with him, there’s a limit.
As for the crypto infrastructure, just save one coin and that’s Bitcoin and the rest can go to hell. If this scenario takes place, crypto will survive and strengthen after the crypto winter ends.
Until then, it’s about survival for just about everyone in the crypto industry until the next crypto bull market initiates.


“I don’t want to fight old battles. I want to find new ones.” – Said Current CEO of Microsoft Satya Nadella

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
September 15, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PICKING A FIGHT WITH GARY)
(BTC), (IRS), (SEC), (COIN)

Chairman of the SEC Gary Gensler is not hiring 87,000 new SEC agents who will form the backbone of the SEC and “carry a firearm and be willing to use deadly force, if necessary.”
No, that’s the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) but the SEC is starting to trend in that direction in regard to how it views the crypto industry.
We aren’t at the point of the SEC raiding crypto exchanges. That stuff only happens in places like Palm Beach, Florida.
Gensler’s recent message to crypto has essentially been to get with the program or face a tortuous existence. Â
His defiant message appears to be falling on deaf ears as the crypto industry has felt they should be entitled to a new set of lenient rules than conventional assets.
I can tell you this has worked out quite poorly for crypto companies who have willfully placed a bullseye squarely on their forehead.
In a recent speech, Gensler criticized the crypto industry, telling an audience of lawyers that the “vast majority” of the nearly 10,000 existing crypto tokens are securities, being issued to the public in violation of federal laws.
He argued that through statements and dozens of enforcement actions, the SEC has made clear how existing law applies to the industry and that no such rules are forthcoming.
Gensler said investors deserve disclosure to help them sort between investments that they think will either flourish or flounder.
The SEC has been adding to its enforcement staff dedicated to protecting investors in the crypto market, announcing in May that it was adding 20 new positions in the newly named Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit, nearly doubling its size.
Crypto infrastructure companies have knowingly avoided the law and SEC as securities exchanges and broker-dealers by failing to properly register while continuing business as usual.
They also believe the products sold aren’t “securities” in the way that the SEC believes they are.
In their world, tokens are like gaming chips or collector’s cards.
We have a word for what they are doing in the English language – illegal.
Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN), the largest publicly traded crypto exchange, said in its most recent quarterly report that the company is under investigation by the SEC, and has received a list of questions about how it chooses which digital assets to list and how it classifies them.
The SEC brought charges in July against a former Coinbase product manager for insider trading, identifying nine tokens it alleges are securities, which were listed on the exchange. Coinbase has said that it disagrees with the SEC’s classification.
In February, the crypto lending platform BlockFI agreed to pay a $100 million for failing to register with the agency.
Gensler said that the SEC will have to come up with new procedures for registering crypto exchanges because they also offer custodial and broker-dealer services, unlike typical stock market exchanges.
I understand that some of these crypto exchanges are a little different from what some of the retail stock exchange platforms are selling, but skirting the law now just means the penalties will be even harsher down the road.
This is not the era of Facebook when the internet police had no idea what was going on with them.
It took decades for sentiment to shift against big tech.
However, from inception, crypto has been unable to shake the stereotype of being a fly-by-night operation and large swaths of it sure appear to be sketchy and they are policed as such.
The brand damage is immense causing the incremental investor to abstain from crypto and the regulators to clamp down even further on crypto companies and products.
We are seeing this in real-time.
The regulation is a footnote on a bull run on the way up, but now crypto has shot itself in the foot and is having a hard time convincing new investors into the asset class precisely because of a loss of trust.

“I fear the day when the technology overlaps with our humanity. The world will only have a generation of idiots.” – Said German-born Theoretical Physicist Albert Einstein

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
September 13, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BITCOIN GETS DROPKICKED)
(BTC), (CPI)

The proof is in the pudding, and this is yet more evidence that it’s impossible to extinguish a forest fire with a bottle of water.
That’s the analogy I would like to trot out as another white-hot inflation number pierces the hearts of team transitory.
Inflation staying at 8.3% year over year is highly negative for the price of Bitcoin, cryptos, and risk assets in general.
Crypto was supposed to be the savior of inflation, but at the time of this writing, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is down 6% this morning and underperforming the broader Nasdaq market by two times.
Everyone knew that inflation would still come in high, but the 8.3% is highly disappointing as the inflation naysayers had already started to spread the deflation narrative or that inflation has “peaked.”
We are currently stuck in a vicious feedback loop where elevated inflation cannot be contained with the current Central Bank policies.
A low Fed Funds rate of 2.5% cannot crack inflation over 8% and it’s killing the price of crypto and literally destroying the digital coin industry.
At these accommodative rates, the job market is holding up quite well which is what the Fed doesn’t want. Job seekers who lately have gotten cut from technology firms are reappearing with higher paying jobs and better benefits in different parts of the economy.
There is no hope for Bitcoin until the US Central Bank finally tames inflation.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.3% in August from a year earlier, a mild slowdown from the 8.5% reported for July.
Gas prices came down, but other sectors offset those price decreases and caused overall inflation to remain elevated. Health insurance, for example, rose a blistering 24.3% year-over-year, the largest increase ever.
Food at home and rent prices were also one of the main drivers this month, up 13.5% and 15.8%, and services inflation rose above 6%.
The result of all this is that a Bitcoin reversal will be delayed as crypto investors wait for inflation to decrease.
I can’t imagine Bitcoin getting over the $25,000 per coin hump until there is more progress on the inflation front.
This is also negative for crypto infrastructure that is holding on for dear life until the next bull market comes.
Anything bullish in crypto has been effectively pushed back.
The inflation report means that US consumers will deal with a cost-of-living crisis longer than expected which will supersede any crisis in terms of what currency they want to store wealth in.
The larger risk is that the US Central Bank risks losing control of inflation completely as the negative feedback loop can accelerate to the downside which might force the Fed to raise rates to unprecedented levels.
It sure appears that this is morphing into a whack-a-mole phenomenon.
It’s clear that the Fed is being way too generous to equity holders by casually increasing rates at a pedestrian pace. If they lose control of inflation, Bitcoin could go to $10,000 per coin.  Â
The fact is that the US Federal government is the biggest beneficiary of low-interest debt which is now about to touch $31 trillion.
The Fed is doing everything it can to not raise rates more than is needed because it makes servicing the debt and those interest payments too onerous.
The Fed will need to raise rates to keep the Federal government solvent if the risk of hyperinflation increases.
Ultimately, this new inflation report means that inflation will persist longer than expected which will cause the Fed to raise short-term rates faster and higher than expected.
Today was a sucker punch to Bitcoin – the digital is down and out for the time being.


“In the end, a vision without the ability to execute it is probably a hallucination.” – Said Former CEO of AOL Steve Case

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
September 8, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CRYPTO ARENA WAS THE PEAK)
(BTC)

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