Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 18, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 18, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) More Headaches for Boeing. What can go wrong with a company that has grounded its largest selling product? Answer: they get criminally prosecuted. That was the unhappy news that hit Boeing (BA) this morning, knocking another $7 off the shares. It can’t get any worse than this, can it? Buy this dip in (BA). Click here.

2) Lyft is Aiming for $23 Billion, as a high-end valuation for its IPO. Avoid this one like the plague. When they offer shares to their low-end employees, you want to run a mile. Click here.

3) Oil Prices Hit New Four-Month High, at $58 a barrel as OPEC production caps work and Venezuela melts down. At a certain point, high energy prices are going to hurt the economy. Buy (USO) on dips. Click here.

4) Goldman Sachs Facing Criminal Prosecution, over the Malaysia scandal which could cost them billions. Avoid (GS) like smallpox. Click here.

5) Take Profits in Chip Stocks, after the enormous run since December. Chip demand is actually falling off a cliff. It’s a classic bird in the hand versus two in the bush situation. Sell (MU) and (AMD). Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR A STIFF DOSE OF HUMILITY),

(FCX), (AAPL), (IWM), (SPY), (BA), (FXI), (FXB)

(WHY ALPHABET IS THE BEST FANG TO BUY NOW),

(GOOGL), (NFLX), (FB), (TWTR), (DIS)

 

Chart of the Day

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 15, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 15, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Quadruple Witching Today, with the expiration of the quarterly options. Watch out for last minute gyrations around key strike prices at the close. You can go from in-the-money to out-of-money in a heartbeat. Billions are at stake.

2) Tesla Releases Model Y SUV, but the cheaper $39,000 version won’t be available until 2021 and the stock dives. We are approaching the make-or-break level for the stock, the bottom of a two-year range. Get ready to buy on the meltdown. This is a ten bagger in a decade. Buy (TSLA). Click here.

3) The SEC Sues Volkswagen, for fraud for selling securities while faking mileage stats for its clean diesel cars. It turns out they weren’t so clean after all. VW has already been taken to the cleaners once on this issue, paying $14.9 billion. Avoid VW. Click here.

4) The US Economy Slowed Sharply in Q1, or so says the Federal Reserve, pointing to a 0.4% decline in manufacturing activity in February. Time to be cautious. Click here.

5) The Ides of March are Today. It did not work out well for Julius Caesar. Will it kill off the stock market too? Watch out for friends bearing knives.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(BUY JOHNSON & JOHNSON ON THE BAD NEWS),
(JNJ), ($INDU), (PFE), (NVS), (AZN)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 14, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 14, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Boeing Hits Bottom, as the US becomes the last country to ban the 737 Max 8. Imagine being 35,000 feet in the air and you find out your plane is grounded for safety reasons, as 6,000 people did yesterday. Buy more (BA) on the dip. The next move is from $360 to $450. Click here.

2) New Homes Sales Down 6.9%, in January, far worse than expected. The report is an unmitigated disaster for the industry. If you’re trying to sell a house now, you’re screwed. Click here.

3) Weekly Jobless Claims Jump, by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000. Notice claims aren’t calling anymore. Another sign the tax cut stimulus is shrinking? Click here.

4) The Number of US Millionaires Grew for the 10th Year, to 11.8 million. And some 1.4 million are worth $5 million to $25 million. You’re obviously not working hard enough. Click here.

5) General Electric to Burn $2 billion This Year, but the stock rallies anyway. We may be trying to put in a long term bottom this year. Buy (GE) on the dips. Click here.
  

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(LEARN MORE ABOUT ME THAN YOU PROBABLY WANT TO KNOW),

(GOOG), (AMZN), (AMGN)

(AIRBNB’S SECOND THOUGHTS),

(AIRBNB)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 13, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Pick Your Airline Carefully. Southwest, American, Norwegian, and Icelandic Air have the most 737 Max 8 planes and their shares are getting hammered, while United (UAL) has none. As for me, I either fly my own plane or take the train. Keep buying the dip in (BA). Click here.

2) China Trade Talks to End Within Weeks, deal or no deal, says head US negotiator Robert Lighthizer. What is this, the 45th time the administration has used this headline to goose the market? Traders are getting fed up. Click here.

3) Tesla Unveils its Model Y on Thursday, a small SUV to compete with the Toyota RAV 4. The grab for market share and volume production continues. Firing their sales staff cuts overall costs by 6%. Buy (TSLA) at $260 with a tight stop. Click here.

4) Reverse Mortgages are Making a Big Comeback. Just ask actor Tom Selleck who is making millions advertising them on TV. Be careful, or your mother will end up on the street when the equity goes below zero. Click here.

5) January Construction Spending Up 1.3%, in a rare positive data point. Nothing to say here. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY BOND YIELDS ARE GOING TO ZERO),

(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX),

(TESTIMONIAL)

(NVIDIA STEPS UP ITS GAME),

(NVDA), (INTC), (MSFT), (ANET), (CSCO), (MCHP), (XLNX)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 12, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 12, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) See You at the Skybridge SALT Conference in Las Vegas, May 7-10, the Woodstock of alternative asset investors. Learn what the hedge funds are planning next, and it’s a blast. Discount registration ends on Friday. Check it out by clicking here.

2) The Boeing 737 Max Crisis Widens, with most countries now grounding the ill-fated aircraft. Keep buying the dip in (BA) shares. This is a simple fix. Click here.

3) Dicks Ducks, with disappointing earnings, and the shares dive 10%. Avoid (DKS) and anything retail. Apparently, the market for assault rifles is bigger than we thought, which the company banned last year. Click here.

4) Another Day, Another Brexit Vote set for tonight which will probably fail again. The pound is doing the Watusi. Avoid all UK plays until the issue is decided. Click here.

5) The Buy Back Blackout Starts on Friday for many companies which are not allowed to repurchase their own shares up to 30 days ahead of earnings reports. You take the largest buyers of shares out of the market, what is left? Look to play the short side for the market. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(AN AFTERNOON WITH ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI OF SKYBRIDGE),

(BRK/A), (EEM)

(FIREEYE’S LAST LINE OF DEFENSE),

(FEYE), (MSFT), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (ORCL), (EFX), (IBM)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 11, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 11, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1)The Bull Market is Ten Years Old Today, and if you read this letter, you caught every dollar of the move up since then, plus some. But how much longer will it last? The technicals say it’s already in its death throes. Sell short (SPY). Click here.

2) China Trade Negotiations Continue, as they have for a year, but now the Chinese have thrown up a road block. They want everything in writing. In the wake of the North Korean disaster, can you blame them? This will weigh heavily on stocks until it's done. Click here.

3) The Wall Battle is Back, with the administration proposing $8.6 billion in funding out Thursday. This will NOT make stocks rise. Another shutdown coming? Click here.

4) The Head and Shoulders Top for Stocks is in. If you had any doubts, look at the chart below. Sell every rally for the next two years.

5)China Grounds the New Boeing 737 Max, after two crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia. The stock crashes 10%, shaving 300 points off the Dow Average. It’s probably a local maintenance or pilot training issue. Buy (BA) on the dip. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE CANARIES IN THE COAL MINE ARE DYING)

(SPY), (IWM), (TLT), (GLD), (AAPL), (FXE), (UUP), (FCX)

(THE BEST TECH PLAY IN HEALTH CARE),

(ISRG), (GOOGL), (JNJ)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 8, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 8, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) The Jobs Report is a Disaster, with the February Nonfarm Payroll Report at a minuscule 20,000 and against an average of 210,000. The headline unemployment rate drops to 3.8%. The jobs market has clearly peaked, so the recession is coming. Put on your hard hat and batten down the hatches. Click here.

2) Stocks Get Hammered, on news of the jobs report. Transports are now down 11 days in a row. All major indexes were down every day this week for the first time since 2016. The dreaded head and shoulders top for the entire ten-year bull market is forming. Click here.

3) You Lost $3.7 Trillion in Q4, or so says the Fed about the decline of national personal net worth during the stock market crash, the sharpest decline in a decade. You’re now only worth $104.3 trillion. Get a job. Click here.

4) Equity Fund Flows the Worst since 2008, with $60 billion in redemptions so far in 2019. Not that I’m trying to get you to choke on your coffee and doughnut this morning, but cash is fleeing the stock market at a record pace. Maybe you should too. Click here.   

5) The Rich People Shortage Worsens, at least if you are trying to sell a high-end home. Over 500 homes are for sale in Manhattan for over $10 million each. What? You don’t have a helicopter landing pad on your roof? Horrors! That is so down market. Get another job. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(MARCH 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(SPY), (SDS), (TLT), (TBT), (GE), (IYM),

(MSFT), (IWM), (AAPL), (ITB), (FCX), (FXE)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 7, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 7, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) US Growth is Fading, says the Fed Beige Book, slowing to a “slight to moderate rate”. The government shutdown is the cause. With Europe already in recession, I’ll be using rallies to increase my shorts. Sell (SPY) and (IWM). Click here.

2) No More Stress Test for Banks, as a pro-business Fed relaxes rules. This paves the way for the next financial crisis. Avoid banks like a bad tip from your bookie. Click here.

3) Healthcare Gets Hammered, as the sector is about to become a political football in the upcoming 2020 election. Avoid for now. Click here.

4) ECB Cuts Europe Growth Forecast Sharply, from 1.7% to 1.1%. Stimulus to renew on all front including more quantitative easing. It’s just a matter of time before their recession pulls the US down. Sell the Euro (FXE). Click here.

5) Initial Jobless Claim Falls by 3,000 to 223,000. If there is any trouble with the economy, it is certainly not on the jobs front. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(BETTER BATTERIES HAVE BECOME BIG DISRUPTERS)

(TSLA), (XOM), (USO)

(WILL NIO EAT TESLA’S LUNCH?),

(TSLA), (XPENG), (NIO)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 6, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 6, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Interest Rates Going to Zero in 2020, as the US goes into recession, or so says Texas hedge fund giant Kyle Bass. Unfortunately, his record is not great. He has been predicting Japan and the yen would collapse for years and it didn’t. Oops! Click here.

2) US Trade Deficit Hits Ten Year High, at $59.8 billion for December, and a staggering $419 billion for the year. It’s funny how foreigners stop buying your goods when you declare war on them. Even Teslas are being stopped at the border in China. Who knew? Click here.

3) FDA Commissioner Suddenly Resigns. Scott Gottleib quit with no notice. He was tough on tobacco and vaping for kids and it seems they complained to the boss. Someone easier on the industry will replace him. Buy the beneficiaries, big pharma and tobacco stocks. Click here.

4) FDA Approves New Antidepression Drug, for the first time in a decade. Expect to hear a lot more about “Spravato” made by Johnson & Johnson. Where do they come up with these bizarre names anyway? Click here.

5) New Trade Tariffs Hit US Consumers the Hardest, adding $69 billion to their annual bill. Falling real earnings and rising costs is hardly a sustainable model. Will someone please tell the president? Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WILL UNICORNS KILL THE BULL MARKET?),

(TSLA), (NFLX), (DB), (DOCU), (EB), (SVMK), (ZUO), (SQ),

(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY), (TLT)

(BUY SALESFORCE ON THE DIP),

(CRM)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 5, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 5, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) China Cuts Growth Forecast, from 6.5% to 6.0% GDP growth for 2019. The trade war with the US and the stimulus haven’t kicked in yet. The last time they did this, the market fell 1,000 points. Buy (FXI) on the dip. Click here.

2) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Pops in February from 57.2 estimated to 59.7. Another rare positive data point for the economy. Services are still alive while manufacturing is dying. Buy tech, sell industrials. Click here.

3) New Homes Sales Bounce in December, up only 3.7% to an annual 621,000 rate after a horrific November. If you can’t sell a home with rates this low, you never will. Avoid homebuilders. Click here.

4) Trump Starts New Trade War Against India, eliminating $5.7 billion in import exemptions. You’re going to have to start paying more for those cheap clothes. Click here.

5) The US Dollar is Driving All Trades Right Now, and has been rising. Buy tech, avoid commodities for at least a few days. But without rising rates, it’s only a short term play. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),

(AAPL), (INTC), (ORCL), (CAT), (IBM),

(TESTIMONIAL)

(MEET THE PREMIER DINOSAUR OF OUR TIME),

(HPQ), (LNVGY), (DVMT), (AAPL)