Mad Hedge Hot Tips for September 14, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 14, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 


1) We Nailed it With Microsoft (MSFT). Took profits on my long and will double up on the next dip. The stock has another double in it. Clocking a $1,033 gain in 12 days works for me! Click here.

2) Retail Sales Rose by only 0.1% in August, the lowest in six months. Looks like they spent a lot in July but no so much in August. Another nail in the recovery’s coffin, but it will take another thousand like this to call the next recession. Have they run out of money? Click here.

3) Ten-Year Treasury Yields Hit 3.0%, and the banks could care less when they are supposed to rise. Both a September and December 25 basis point rate hikes are now in the can, and March has risen to a 50% probability. Click here.

4) Stocks Open Up Slightly, with trade wars still a major overhang. No one wants to stay long over a weekend in this world, and risk is high. It’s all about Hurricane Florence today anyway. Click here.

5) Target to Hire 120,000 for the Christmas Rush. And you thought the lines were bad now! Call it “Peak Christmas,” and maybe they won’t hack my credit card this time. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(SOME GOOD NEWS FROM TESLA), (TSLA),
(SOME SAGE ADVICE ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for September 13, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 13, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 


1) Fed Says Labor Shortages Rising, Trade Fears Rampant. In its Beige Book report, America’s central bank concedes that Trump’s foreign adventures are really starting to cost the economy, scaling back capital investment. Click here.

2) Apple (AAPL) Makes a Big Play for the China Market, with its new low-end phones, but will the trade war get in the way? Click here.

3) Turkey Raises Interest Rates to break the collapse in its currency. The move triggers a global “RISK ON” move. The Mad Hedge Market Timing Index rockets back up to 71 in a heartbeat. Click here.

4) General Motors (GM) Recalls 1 Million Trucks and SUVs. Please avoid this sector like the plague. Apparently, the steering wheels don’t work. And you’d think they’d notice it at the factory. Click here.

5) U.S. Median Income Recovers 2007 Level. It’s only taken a decade, but at $61,272 we are finally earning what we did in 2007. Somehow, it doesn’t seem to go as far. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(EXPANDING MY “TRADE PEACE” PORTFOLIO),
(BABA), (BIDU), (TCTZF) (MU), (LRCX), (KLAC), (EEM),
(FXI), (EWZ), (SOYB), (CORN), (WEAT), (CAT), (DE),
(THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY TRADERS),
(THE THREAT TO YOUR DIGITAL LIFE FROM CHATBOTS),
(FB), (GOOGL), (MSFT)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for September 12, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 12, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Producer Price Index Down 0.1%, versus +0.2% expected. This shocking deflationary print is amazing at the top of an economic cycle. Click here.

2) Apple (AAPL) to Launch Three New Phones Today, but most of the specs have already leaked out. Take profits on the stock. Click here.

3) Semiconductor Stocks Get Clocked Again (LRCX), (MU), with another broker downgrade, and they will continue to fall apart as long as the trade war with China continues. Are we getting close to “BUY” territory? Click here.

4) Risk-Taking in Emerging Countries (EEM) is in Free Fall. If 56% of the global economy is sick, how long will it take for the contagion to spread to us?  Click here.

5) Trade Wars to Chop $10 Off S&P 500 Earnings This Year, from $168 to $158, with two-thirds of all companies impacted. The benefits of the tax cuts have been wiped out. When are those midterms again? Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

 

THE FUTURE OF AI ISSUE:
(THE NEW AI BOOK THAT INVESTORS ARE SCRAMBLING FOR),
(GOOG), (FB), (AMZN), MSFT), (BABA), (BIDU),
(TENCENT), (TSLA), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU), (LRCX),
(HOW TO PLAY “SOFTWARE AS A SERVICE”),
(AMZN), (IBM), (ADBE), (CRM), (BABA),
(CSCO), (SAP), (ORCL), (GOOGL)

 

 

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for September 11, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 11, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 


1) Stocks Open Down, on what will be a muted day on 9/11 remembrances. I can’t believe it’s been 17 years. The bloom is coming off the rose as trade wars overhang risk taking. Keep those shorts! Click here.

2) Hedge Fun Guru Ray Dalio Says It’s Time to Go Defensive. The Bridgewater founder also thinks we’re in the seventh inning of the economic recovery. The next bear market won’t be as bad as the last, but the politics could be worse. Sees parallels with the 1935-39 drawdown, when income tax rates were raised to 90% and the rich were vilified for the next 20 years. I’m keeping my shorts. Click here.
 
3) JOLTS Report Shows 6.93 Million Job Openings in July, a new all-time high. This is what an overheating economy looks like. It’s just a matter of time before we start seeing strikes for high wages. Click here.

4) Small Business Optimism Hits an All-Time High in August, up 0.9 points to 108.8. That’s a 35-year high. Super bullish small businesses are another topping indicator. Click here.

5) Tesla’s (TSLA) Battery Business is Booming, but nobody knows it because of all the hoopla over Elon Musk. The stock is still uninvestable as it hits a new low for the year. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

 

(A NOTE ON ASSIGNED OPTIONS,
OR OPTIONS CALLED AWAY), (MSFT),
(TEN MORE REASONS WHY BONDS WON’T CRASH),
(TLT), (TBT), (ELD), (MUB),
(IS IT TIME TO PICK UP THE SLACK?),
SLACK WORKSPACE APP

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for September 10, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 10, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Leslie Moonves Leaves CBS (CBS). He just couldn’t keep his hands off the merchandise. Another CEO leaves for playing nookie in-house. Too bad, because he was the best CEO in the industry. A $120 million golden parachute kicks in. Stock dives 4%, stay away. Click here.

 2) The Richest Man in China Retires. Alibaba (BABA) founder Jack Ma decides to go spend his $40 billion. Only in China! Maybe it’s time to get out of Dodge. His stock also dives 4%. Click here.

3) Trump Tells Apple (AAPL) to Make Phones in the U.S. Here comes your $2,000 iPhone. It will never happen as talk is cheap, but this is why I’m out of the stock. Click here.

4) Markets Rally on Promise of More Tax Cuts. Yes, it’s called “Tax Reform 2.0”, and it will add another $1.5 trillion to the U.S. deficit. Sell Short more U.S. Treasury bonds (TLT). Click here.

5) Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy 10-Year Anniversary. How time flies! Expect a lot of 20/20 hindsight today. Boy, I’m glad I got out of that one early! Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

 

(WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2018, HOUSTON
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON INVITATION),
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD,
or “IT WASN’T ME!”),
(AMZN), (NKE), (SPY), (PCG),
(GOOGLE’S BREAKFAST OF ROTTEN EGGS),
(TWTR), (FB), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (AMZN)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for September 7, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 7, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) NASDAQ Has its Worst Week in Five Months. And you wonder why I’m 70% in cash, with two short positions. Is the tech miracle dead? No, but it IS taking a long-needed rest. Sell tech for the short term, hold for the long term. Click here.

 2) August Nonfarm Payroll Report Hits 201,000, and the Unemployment Rate stands at 3.9%. The jobs market is firing on all cylinders. Even your Uncle Ernie can get a job now at a day care center. Click here.

3) But Wage Growth Hits a Nine-Year High at 2.9%. Talk about whistling past the graveyard. Inflation is on the way. Maybe that’s why my bond short is doing so well, as is yours.  Click here.

4) Elon Musk Gets High on a podcast and Tesla (TSLA) shares plunge by $30. Bonds hit record lows. Buy the car, not the stock. There are too many black swans circling out there. Click here.

5) Starbucks (SBUX) Finally Moves into Italy, and they’re already getting sued on illegal price cutting. Taking coals to Newcastle. You would think with 25,000 stores worldwide they had enough. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(MONDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2018, ATLANTA, GA,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(SEPTEMBER 5 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(AMZN), (MU), (MSFT), (LRCX), (GOOGL), (TSLA),
(TBT), (EEM), (PIN), (VXX), (VIX), (JNK), (HYG), (AAPL)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for September 6, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 6, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 


1) Global Markets Fall of Fifth Day, as trade war worries send risk takers fleeing. Oops! Came out of my long volatility position a day early as the (VIX) hits $15.50, up 25% in four days. At least I’m still short the (SPY). Click here.

2) Goldman Sachs (GS) Decides Against Opening a Bitcoin Trading Desk. Crypto currencies crash, with Bitcoin down $1,000 in one day. I told you it was a Ponzi scheme! Click here.

3) Trump Says Google (GOOGL) is Rigged. Don’t believe it. If it were they’d lose half their customers, and they know that. Click here.

4) U.S. Factory Orders Fall in July. Down 0.8%, for some reason the Chinese quit buying airplanes. Is this the first chink in the armor of a strong economy? One data point does not a trend make. Click here.

5) The Government Runs Out of Money on October 1. Yes, another shutdown is on the way. Will the shutdown last until the midterm elections? Will liquidity flush markets notice? Better cash your Social Security check now! Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(TUESDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2018, MIAMI, FL,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(HOW THE RISK PARITY TRADERS ARE RUINING EVERYTHING!),
(VIX), (SPY), (TLT),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(THE SMART PLAYS IN FINTECH),
(SQ), (PYPL), (JPM), (COF), (WFC), (BAC),
(MGI), (GRUB), (BABA), (NFLX)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for September 5, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 5, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 


1) Congress Grills Big Tech. Yes, the opioid epidemic is all their fault, and conspiracy theorists have a right to free speech. It’s all a big diversion from you know what, but it did suck the life out of tech stocks for a few hours. Click here.
 
2) Emerging Markets Hit New Lows. A strong dollar and trade wars are killing the world’s weakest economies. There is a great “BUY” setting up here someday, but not yet. Click here.

3) U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Five-Month High, up 9.5% to $50.1 billion in July. It turns out that destroying your neighbors’ economies is bad for business. Click here.

4) Amazon (AMZN) Orders 20,000 Vans, to complete the final leg of its delivery service. Goodbye FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS). Click here.

5) Theranos to Dissolve. So, it turns out there is risk in venture capital investments after all. At least Elisabeth Holmes’ good looks kept her out of jail, but she’ll never work in this town again. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

 

(JOIN US AT THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE, NEVADA, CONFERENCE, OCTOBER 26-27, 2018),
(THE HIGH COST OF TRADE TARIFFS),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(WARREN BUFFETT’S GREAT TECH FIND IN INDIA),
(BRK/B), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (BABA), (NFLX)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for September 4, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
September 4, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Trade Talks Fail on Every Front, and markets hate it. Punitive tariffs against our allies are turning from a negotiating tactic to trench warfare. Expect a long slog. It’s a good day to be long volatility (VXX), now up 25% from our cost. Click here.

2) It’s Also a Good Day to be Short Bonds (TLT), as massive corporate issuance collides with huge government borrowing. A 15% profit on our short position is now within reach. Click here.

3) U.S. Manufacturing Activity Hits a 14-Year High. Yes, the economy is still red hot, but is it peaking? Click here.

4) Mercedes Launches its First Electric Car, the EQ, in the first real challenge to Tesla (TSLA) in a decade. But it still can’t match Tesla on range. Click here.

5) Ford (F) Accelerates its Exit from the Sedan Business, as we move to an SUV world. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

 

(WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2018, HOUSTON
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(DON’T MISS THE SEPTEMBER 5 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or
THE WAR WITH CANADA STARTS ON TUESDAY),
(MSFT), (VXX), (TLT), (AAPL), (KO), (GM), (F),
READY PLAYER ONE'S INSIGHT INTO THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for August 31, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
August 31, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 


1) Warren Buffett Says Stocks are Expensive, in the most polite and indirect way possible. What else can $120 billion in cash mean? If he has so much cash, why don’t you? Click here.
 
2) Canada Trade Talks Wobble, as they refuse to negotiate over agriculture. Do you think Canada will do better under this U.S. Congress or the next one? Volatility (VIX) spikes again. Click here.

3) Amazon Closes in on the next $1 Trillion Market Value, making Jeff Bezos worth $162 billion, and his original investors, his parents, worth $30 billion. And all I got from my kids was a used “Feel the Bern” T-shirt on my birthday. Click here.

4) Apple is Up 18.3% in August, adding $185 billion in market cap, or the GDP of a small country. If a portfolio manager didn’t own Apple this month, now 4% of the total American market, he’s screwed. Click here.

5) Core Inflation Hits the Fed’s 2% Target. Finally, after a 10-year wait, as consumers max out their credit cards. It means the Fed has to keep raising interest rates from here. Sell short those U.S. Treasury bonds (TLT)! Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(MONDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2018, ATLANTA, GA,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(WATCH OUT FOR BEARS!), ($INDU),
(MORE BIOTECH AND PHARMA STOCKS TO SOAK UP)