Mad Hedge Hot Tips for May 13, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) China Retaliates, raising tariffs of most US goods, ratcheting up the trade war. US markets are crushed, with the Dow average down 500 and Chinese plays like Apple (AAPL) and Boeing (BA) especially hard hit. Click here.

2) Four Oil Tankers Attacked, at the Saudi port of Fujairah, sending oil soaring. America’s “two war” strategy may be put to the test, with the US attacking Iran and North Korea simultaneously. Click here.

3) Bitcoin Tops 7,000, on a massive “RISK OFF” trade. The cryptocurrency is clearly replacing gold as the fear trade. Click here.

4) Antitrust Suit Proceeds against Apple, on its monopoly position in the App Store, says the Supreme Court. The stock craters $12.00. Another buying opportunity is setting up here. Click here.

5) Heard at SALT. Some 95% of all financial transactions in China take place on smartphones, compared to only 4% in the US, so they are well ahead in fintech. Can they come here?

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR A GAME OF CHICKEN),

(SPY), (TLT), (UBER), (BA), (SOYB)

(THE TIDAL WAVE OF EUROPEAN EV SUPPLY)

(TSLA)

You Can’t Do Enough Research

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for May 10, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 9, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Tariffs Hit and the Market Goes into Free Fall. It's all about the trade war now, everything else is meaningless. (SPY) is clearly gunning for the 200-day moving average at $275, down 6.8% in a week, after posting the worst week of 2019. Click here.

2) Bonds Challenge New Highs for the Year, taking ten-year US Treasury yields down to 2.43%. German Bunds crater to negative numbers at -0.05% and Japanese government bonds to -0.06%. Why are bonds discounting a recession? Click here.

3) Weekly Jobless Claims Post Modest Fall, down 2,000 to 228,000. As if anyone cared. Holding on to last week’s huge jump is disturbing. Click here.

4) Uber Valued at $82 Billion, a big haircut from earlier indications, in what is certainly the worst timed IPO of the year. You never want to launch an IPO after a stock market crash and a labor strike. Can’t wait to see how the aftermarket trades. Indications down 5%. Click here.

5) SALT Tips. Heard at the Las Vegas SALT conference, Millennials will inherit $30 trillion by 2025 and will account for 75% of the workforce then.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),

(TLT),

(TRADING THE NEXT KOREAN WAR)

 

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for May 9, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 9, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) It’s Make or Break Time, global trade war and recession or not. The market could be up or down 1,000 points based on what happened this weekend. Click here.

2) US Trade Deficit Hits a 5-Year Low, in March, down 16.2% to $20.7 billion. This is due to a big 23.7% jump in US exports to China, thanks to China’s massive economic stimulus program. But at what cost? Click here.

3) Chevron Walks Away from Anadarko Deal, making Occidental Petroleum the winner in the epic takeover battle. Watch for the (CVX) rally. Click here.

4) Softbank Kills it with Uber Stake, raking in $3.8 billion on its venture capital investment. The big question is whether there’s any juice left in the stock for you. I doubt it. Click here.

5) In the Meantime, the Uber Driver’s Strike Spreads, from the US to London. After car operating expenses are taken out the only net $5 an hour. Click here.

 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(NEW TRAINING VIDEO ON “HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BEAR PUT SPREAD”)

(A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)

(APEX LEGENDS TO THE RESCUE)

(EA)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for May 8, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 8, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) The Tweet That Sank Wall Street. This trade deal is getting expensive, with the Dow down over 1,000 points from last week’s high giving up one-third of all 2019 gains. As your retirement funds disappear up their own exhaust pipe, write a protest letter to the White House which told a deal would be signed by Friday. Staying 100% cash. Click here.

2) Bonds Explode to the Upside on Stock Market Panic, as the world stampedes to “RISK OFF.” There’s a great (TLT) short setting up here, but not quite yet. Click here.

3) Gold Caches a Bid, as the global flight to safety accelerates. But it is a poor showing so far, given the magnitude of the stock market moves. Click here.

4) Chinese Exports to the US Fall, as US price increases start to take a bite. The Middle Kingdom is no longer able to cut their own prices through Yuan depreciation, thanks to their own economic stimulus program. Click here.

5) Chinese Vice Premier Coming to the US, but Liu only has 24 hours to meet the deadline. Looks like the Chinese think they can get a better deal from the next president. Click here.

  
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE ULTRA BULL ARGUMENT FOR GOLD),

(GLD), (GDX), (ABX), (SLV), (PALL), (PPLT)

(TESTIMONIAL)

(ELBOWED OUT OF THE WAY BY APPLE)

(SPOT), (AAPL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for May 7, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 7, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) China Crisis Deepens. If the senior Chinese negotiator fails to show and the new tariffs go into place, watch the Dow Average drop 1,000. I went 100% cash yesterday. Click here.

2) US Retailers Panic. Will customers eat the 25% jump in prices in an Amazon-dominated world? Unlikely. Mass bankruptcies to follow. Click here.

3) Fed Warns About High Stock Prices, and business borrowing is at an all-time high. Maybe we should listen to our central bank? Click here.

4) US Job Openings Soar in March, by a stunning 346,000 to 7.5 million. This is what tops look like. Click here.

5) John Thomas Meeting Follows in Las Vegas, on Thursday for lunch. Click here for details at Click here. 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD)

(AAPL)

(THE CODER BOOM)

(THE LURKING DANGERS BEHIND FACEBOOK)

(FB), (WFC), (NFLX)

 

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for May 6, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 6, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) The China Trade War Ratchets Up, with Trump imposing 25% tariffs on $200 billion more in imports. It seems that the negotiations were not going as well as advertised. The stock market won’t like this one bit. The heat in the kitchen is getting too hot. The headline should read “25% tax to hit US consumers.” Going to 100% cash.  Click Here.

2) Preview of the Next Correction or Bear Market. Watch what’s going down today and you have a preview of the next correction or bear market. Lead that led the upside will lead the downside too, with NASDAQ opening down 200 points this morning.

3) Softbank to Raise $100 Billion in Vision Fund IPO. It may be a pipe dream but if Masayoshi Son pulls it off stocks will REALLY get expensive. And can you squeeze another $100 billion into the San Francisco Bay Area? Me thinks not. Click Here

4) Uber to Go Public This Week, likely at a $90 billion valuation which will suck $10 billion out of the market. The question is, what other stocks will people sell to get a piece of the biggest ride sharing company? Click Here

5) More Trouble for Boeing. Pilots say Boeing knew about software troubles for a year before the crash. Wait for a bigger dip to buy (BA).  Click Here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR HERE’S ANOTHER BOMBSHELL),
(DIS), (QQQ), (AAPL), (INTU), (GOOGL), (LYFT), (UBER)
(PAYPAL GOES FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH)
(PYPL), (SQ), (GOOGL), (LYFT)

 

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for May 3, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 3, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) April Nonfarm Payroll Report Will Blow it Away, at 263,000. The headline unemployment rate plunges to a new 49-year low at 3.6%. This is what overheating looks like, fueled by massive borrowing. Play now, pay latter. Click here.

2) Tesla Bumps Up Capital Raise to $2.7 billion, and it’s looking like the bottom may be in. Stock rises on the news as Musk is taking $10 million for itself. His timing is perfect. Click here.

3) Warren Buffet is Buying Amazon, not the whole company but the stock. It’s his second technology company after Apple. Better late than never. Mad Hedge keeps its strong buy on (AMZN), which it has maintained since $60 in 2009. Click here.

4) Stephen Moore Withdraws Fed Nomination, as he couldn’t get the votes in the Senate. Finally, the Senate nixes a spectacularly unqualified Trump nomination. Owed back taxes and child support didn’t help either. Expect a more convention appointment to follow. Click here.

5) Last Chance to Meet John Thomas in Las Vegas On May 9. For a personal all asset class and portfolio review, please click here.    

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE LAS VEGAS MAY 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

(APRIL 3 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(SPY), (LYFT), (TSLA), (TLT), (XLV), (UBER),

(AAPL), (AMZN), (MSFT), (EDIT), (SGMO), (CLLS)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for May 2, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 2, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Fed Makes No Move on Rates. Like this was going to be a surprise. The big revelation that the Fed will start ending quantitative tightening now and not wait until September, as indicated earlier. More rocket fuel for the stock market. Let the bubble continue. Click here.

2) Come Meet John Thomas in Manila, Philippines on June 30. An excellent lunch will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, energy, precious metals, and real estate. To buy tickets, please click here.

3) ISM Factory Orders Dive, in April to 52.8, a six-month low. The global synchronized slowdown is still hurting. Click here.

4) Tesla to Raise $2.3 Billion, and they’ll have no problem getting it. It’s already discounted in the market and could well mark an interim bottom in the shares. Buy (TSLA). Click here.

5) Weekly Jobless Claims Unchanged, at 230,000. The big number comes tomorrow with the April Nonfarm Payroll Report. Click here.

 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:


(HEADED FOR THE LAS VEGAS SKYBRIDGE SALT CONFERENCE),

(BRK/A), (EEM),

(NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS),

(APPLE’S HOME RUN),

(AAPL), (CRM), (GOOGL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for May 1, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 1, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Apple Blows it Away, with a major earnings upside surprise. The services play is finally feeding into profits. Stock backs bumped up from $100 billion to $150 billion. Don’t touch (AAPL) up here with the stock up $10 in the aftermarket. Click here.

2) Fed Meets Today, to decide on interest rates, which will do absolutely nothing. The non-announcement will be out 2:00 PM EST. Click here.

3) Uber Hits the Road for its IPO, which valuations being cut daily, from a high of $120 billion to a recent low of $90 billion. Rival Lyft definitely peed on their parade with their ill-fated IPO plunging 33%. Click here.

4) ADP Comes in at a Hot 275,000, as the private hiring binge continues. It’s a great preview for the Friday Nonfarm Payroll Report. Click here.

5) Pending Home Sales Jump 3.8%, on a signed contract basis. No doubt the market is responding to the biggest drop on mortgage rates in a decade. At one point, the 30-year fixed rate loan fell as low as 4.03%. Avoid housing for now, it’s still in a recession. Click here.


Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(SUNDAY JUNE 30 MANILA, PHILIPINNES STRATEGY LUNCHEON),

(WHY GLOBALIZATION WORKS)

(ALPHABET’S BIG MISS)

(GOOGL), (TSLA), (TWTR)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 30, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 30, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Alphabet Gets Slaughtered, with the stock down 7% on weak earnings. The strong US dollar gets the blame, decimating foreign earnings for the last FANG to report. Wait two more days and then buy the dip in (GOOGL). Click here.

2) Spotify Hits 100 million Subscribers, on big international push. There’s no trade here, but (SPOT) is a great long term hold for the world’s number two music streamer. Click here.

3) Chicago PMI Dives, in April from 58.7 to 52.6. Purchases are running far behind expectations. Did everyone spend all their money in Q1? Click here.

4) Master Card Earnings Leap. No matter what you do on the Internet, you’re going to need a credit card. Buy (MA) on dips and (V) also. Click here.

5) San Francisco Home Prices Fall for the First Time in 7 Years. The median price is now only $830,000, down 0.1% YOY. Back up the truck! Wait until all that IPO money hits the market! Click here.

 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(JUNE 21 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALAND STRATEGY LUNCHEON),

(WHY DOCTORS MAKE TERRIBLE TRADERS)

(AMAZON’S NEW GAME CHANGER)

(AMZN), (WMT), (TGT), (UPS), (FDX)