Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 29, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 29, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Consumer Spending Hits A Decade High, up 0.9% in March, while inflation barely moves. So why is the stock market barely moving? Is Goldilocks about to become a senior citizen? Click here.

2) Meet John Thomas in Auckland New Zealand on June 21. To buy tickets, click here.

3) Berkshire Hathaway May Buy $100 Billion of Own Stock, says Warren Buffet, because everything else is too expensive. If the Oracle of Omaha is buying (BRK/A) at a discount, so should you. Click here.

4) Exxon Bombs, on a lackluster earnings report coming from the worst refining margins in a decade. If an oil company can’t make it on a 40% rise in the price of Texas tea, it never will. Fossil fuels are about to remain….fossils. Click here.

5) There Are 40,000 Dead Bodies in the US, listed as “John” or “Jane” Doe’s, parked in hundreds of morgues around the country. Thanks to ancestral DNA tracing, ALL of them may be identified over the next couple of years. Cold cases are becoming a thing of the past. I never thought I’d live long enough to see this. Click here.

 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR ANOTHER LEG UP FOR THE MARKET),

(SPY), (TLT), (DIS), (INTU), (FCX), (MSFT),

(QQQ), (CVX), (XOM), (OXY), (TSLA)

(A TESLA ENTRY POINT IS FINALLY OPENING UP)

(TSLA), (LYFT), (UBER)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 26, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 25, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Q1 GDP Comes in at a Red Hot 3.2%, despite the government shut down, trade war, and terrible winter. Many estimates were below 1%. Of course, the stock market knew this already, rising almost every day this year. Did stock rally just get another leg up, or this the greatest “Sell the news” of all time? Click here.

2) However, All Asset Prices Moving in the Opposite Direction, with stocks falling and bonds rising on the news. Is THIS the sell the news message? I’m taking profits on my bond longs before the market figures out its wrong. Click here.

3) And Tech Stocks Are Really Not Buying It, in the wake of weak Intel Earnings. Buy (INTC) and other techs on the dip. Click here.

4) Oil Especially Crashes 3%, on Trump tongue wagging, promising he will order the Saudis to increase production, which they won’t. Really, it was extremely overbought and due for a correction. Click here.

5) So Will the Fed Raise Rates Now? A normal Fed would in the face of the hot GDP number. But nothing is normal anymore. Click here.

  
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(HOW TO RELIABLY PICK A WINNING OPTIONS TRADE)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 25, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 25, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Risk in the Market is Rising. Look at the big overreaction to weak 3M earnings this morning. With the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index at 69, there is only a 31% chance that your next “BUY” will make money. Click here.

2) Tesla Loses $700 million in Q1, but the stock rallies anyway. It’s tough to press the world’s most heavily shorted stock down here. It’s all because the EV subsidy dropped by half since January. Look for a profit rebound in quarters two and three. Capital raise anyone? Tesla junk bonds now yielding 8.51% if you’re looking for an income play. Click here.

3) Microsoft Knocks it Out of the Park, with great earnings and a massive 47% increase in cloud growth. Stock looks hell-bent to hit $140, and Mad Hedge followers who bought the stock are making a killing. (MSFT) is now the third company to join the $1 trillion club. Click here.

4) All Eyes on Amazon which reports after the close. Will they pop 5% like the other FANGs? Or will the focus be on the divorce? Click here.

5) Chipotle Gets Hammered. Earnings were good, but they disclosed the existence of a criminal investigation stemming from a few unfortunate burritos last year. This business never gets old. Click here.

 

 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(2019 MAD HEDGE WORLD TOUR)

(THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 2030)

(XHB)

(THE RESILIENCE OF TWITTER)

(TWTR), (FB)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 24, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 24, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) NASDAQ Hits a New All-Time High. Unfortunately, it’s all short covering and company share buybacks with no new money actually entering the market. How high is high? Tech would have to quadruple from here to hit the 2000 Dotcom Bubble top in valuation terms. Click here.

2) German Business Confidence is Falling Off a Cliff. Make war on your trade partners and you reap the bitter fruit. Click here.

3) Boeing Takes a $1 Billion Hit on the 737 MAX Fiasco, but the stock is up $3. Monthly production has plunged from 57 planes a month to 42. Maybe the end is near? Click here.

4) Bidding War Breaks Out for Anadarko, with Occidental Petroleum offering $57 Billion compared to Chevron’s $50 billion. What do California oil companies know that others don’t? Maybe it’s another unintended consequence of the legalization of marijuana? Click here.

5) Why There’s a Spy Shortage. With everyone in the world now on Facebook and the information staying there forever, there are no anonymous people anymore. Undercover becomes impossible. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY ARE BOND YIELDS SO LOW?)

(TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (MUB), (LINE), (ELD),

(QQQ), (UUP), (EEM), (DBA)

(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!)

(WHO BEAT WHOM IN THE APPLE/QUALCOMM BATTLE)

(QCOM), (INTC), (AAPL)

 

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 23, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 23, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Meet John Thomas at His May 9 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon. To buy tickets, please click here.

2) New Home Sales Jump 4.5%, in March, an 18 month high. Interesting how lower home mortgage rates, now 4.35% for the 30-year fixed, is feeding into more new home sales but not existing home sales. Avoid the homebuilders (ITB). Click here.

3) Lockheed Martin Guides Upward, causing the shares to pop, and taking the entire defense sector up with it. Big orders from Saudi Arabia for fighters and missiles were the driver. This sector has been in the doghouse since the Dems took the house. Buy (LMT) on dips. Click here.

4) Oil Hits new 2019 High, with West Texas hitting $66.19 a barrel, on tougher Iran sanctions. Watch out, this may be the stick that breaks the camel’s back and triggers a summer correction. Better plan a shorter vacation, or go electric. Click here.

5) Waymo’s Self Driving Fleet to be Operational by Summer, and it will be based in Detroit, where lots of cheap auto workers are available. The future is happening fast. Click here.

 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(LAS VEGAS MAY 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

(APRIL 17 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(FXI), (RWM), (IWM), (VXXB), (VIX), (QCOM), (AAPL), (GM), (TSLA), (FCX), (COPX), (GLD), (NFLX), (AMZN), (DIS)

(WHY YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT ATLASSIAN CORPORATION)

(TEAM), (ZM)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 22, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 22, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) How Soon Does the Fed Start Raising Rates Again? The Fed cancelled all four rate hikes for 2019 because the stock market was crashing. Now it’s booming. Does that put autumn rate hikes back on the table? Only if the economy rebounds as well. Click here.

2) Uber’s Self Driving Car Unit Valued at $7.25 billion, as indicated by its latest VC investment from Softbank. This is going to be a huge business when it finally gets going, bigger than Detroit, but how to get in as a retail investor? Click here.

3) US Existing Home Sales Dive, in March by 5.9%, to an annualized 5.41 million units. Where is the falling mortgage rate boost? Keep avoiding the sick man of the US economy. Click here.

4) Trump Ending All Iran Oil Export Waivers, and the oil industry absolutely loves it, with Texas tea up 2.5%. Previously, the administration had been exempting a dozen countries from the Iran sanctions. More disruption all the time. The US absolutely DOES NOT need an oil shock right now, unless you’re Exxon (XOM). Click here.

5) Apple Bringing Out 5G in 2020, using QUALCOMM (QCOM) chips. Missed this one. I wondered why the stock was going up so fast. Buy (QCOM) on a dip. Click here.

 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR THE WORLD OF TWO’S),

(SPY), (TLT), (AAPL), (QCOM), (XLV)

(HOW TECH IS CHANGING THE ECONOMICS OF BASEBALL),

(MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL ISSUE)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 18, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 18, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Bright US Retail Sales Give Market a Boost, up 1.6% in March, the most in 18 months. A rare positive data point on an otherwise dull economy. Click here.

2) Weekly Jobless Claims Hit New 50 Year Low, at 192,000, down 5,000 from last week. We are clearly in uncharted territory here. Is this the bubble low? Why won’t wages budge? Click here.

3) Union Pacific Beats. There may be some life in the old industrials yet, but only if you cherry-pick the best. Avoid US Steel (X). Click here.

4) Global PMIs Are Still Weak, with dismal reports from Asia and Europe. The US is still the bright shining light on the hill. Bad news for US exporters through. Notice that NASDAQ is down today. Click here.

5) William Barr Opines on No Collusion or Obstruction, says the attorney general cherry-picked for his views. What a surprise on the release of the 400-page Mueller Report where 20% of it is blacked out because of “harm to ongoing matter” which means 80 pages of pending prosecutions of the president. As predicted, the market impact is absolutely zero. This is really a news junkie’s game. Click here.

 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(SIX STOCKS TO BUY THAT ALWAYS MAKE MONEY),

(SPY), (IXUS), (EEM), (VNQ), (TLT), (TIP)

(NETFLIX’S WORST NIGHTMARE)

(NFLX), (DIS), (FB), (AAPL)

The Transparency is Stunning

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 17, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 17, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Health Care Drags Down Stocks Again. It seems that (XLV) is NOT the sector to buy ahead of an election. Medicare for all? Click here.

2) Boeing is Retaliation Target Number One, if Trump starts a trade war with Europe. Caterpillar (CAT) is number two on the list. Better avoid for now. ALWAYS kick a good stock when its down. Click here.

3) Oil Hits a New 2019 High. OPEC discipline also hits a record. Gas at the pump will hit $4.00 just as the summer driving hits. Maybe it’s time for a “staycation” this year? Take that long cross country trip during the next global recession. Click here.

4) Mortgage Applications Hit a Nine-Year High, as low rates rescue the residential housing market from the jaws of defeat. But don’t get sucked into housing stocks here (IYR). Click here.

5) Apple and QUALCOMM End Epic Legal Battle, over smart phone chip patent dispute. It finally became a high distraction of (AAPL). Buy (QCOM) on the dip. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(DECODING THE GREENBACK),

(WHAT ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION?)
(TESTIMONIAL),

(ALPHABET DOMINATES WITH GOOGLE MAPS)

(GOOGL), (AMZN), (YELP), (UBER)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 16, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 16, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Netflix’s Big Day, with the company reporting Q1 earnings after the close. Fears they will get run over by the new Disney juggernaut at one third of the (NFLX) monthly price are running rampant. If they don’t beat on new subscribers look out below. Click here.

2) Manufacturing Output Was Flat, in March says the Fed, thanks to a big drop off in auto production. It’s consistent with the rest of the poor data we have received in recent months. Click here.

3) Citibank Beats in Investment Banking Boost, but the stock market doesn’t buy it. Avoid banks like last year’s buggy maker. Click here.

4) Goldman Sachs to Lay Off 100, in the wake of disappointing Q1 earnings and collapsing trading volumes. Avoid this dying sector. Click here.

5) Goodbye to Notre Dame Cathedral. It really is like saying goodbye to an only friend. I first walked its stone-paved isles in 1968, fleeing riot police from the demonstration out front. Some 50 years later, I guided my wide-eyed kids through its medieval spires. All of Silicon Valley big tech is lining up to help finance the rebuild which will cost hundreds of millions. See you again in 20 years when the job is done.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY YOU WILL LOSE YOU JOB IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT),

(BLK)

(UBER’S DARK AND DIRTY SECRETS)

(UBER), (LYFT)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for April 15, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
April 15, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) President Says the Dow Should Be 5,000-10,000 Higher, if only the Fed hadn’t raised interest rates last year. That would take the market multiple up to a record 25X. This is coming from a guy who went bankrupt four times himself buying at market tops. But is he buying now himself? Click here.

2) Watch Out for the Plane Shortage This Summer, as the 737 Max software fix drags on. American Airlines has already cancelled hundreds of vacation flights. Book that ticket early. Buy (BA) on the dip. Click here.

3) Home Mortgage Demand is Soaring. It looks like an ultra-low 4.03% 30-year fixed rate mortgage is going to rescue the residential real estate market from the jaws of defeat this spring. Click here.

4) Broker Earnings in Free Fall, as collapsing trading volumes take a bite. It seems investor faith in this rally is almost nil. Risk is high. Take profits you lucky bastard. Click here.

5) Earnings Are Coming in Better Than Expected for Q1. It is looking like companies excessively cut forecasts during the dark days of December. But is it already in the price? Cut risk. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR QE IS BACK!),

(SPY), (TLT), (TSLA), (DIS), (FCX), (GOOG), (MSFT), (AMZN),

(REACHING PEAK SOCIAL MEDIA)

(SNAP), (FB), (PINS), (TWTR), (GOOGL)