Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 26, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 26, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Mueller Report has No Market Impact, with the Dow Average up a scant $14.51. No Bombshells here. It’s “RISK ON.” Buy the dips. Click here.

2) Apple Announces its New Streaming Service, Apple TV Plus, and the stock falls on a “sell the news” drop. Roku is included in the package, so buy (ROKU). The Apple offering is weak enough to allow plenty of room for Disney to launch its own streaming service, Disney plus, at the end of this year. Prepare for an onslaught of princesses. Buy (DIS) too. Click here.

3) The Existing Yield Inversion is Fake. Real yield inversions crush stock markets when short term rate soar, not collapse, so the bear market is on hold. Foreign investors have already figured this out and are pouring money into US stocks. It’s “’RISK ON” baby. Click here.

4) Home Price Appreciation Hits a Four-Year Low, with the S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index growing only 4.2% YOY in January, down from 4.6% the previous month. Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Minneapolis are still showing the biggest gains while San Francisco and Seattle are seeing the biggest price drops. Avoid homebuilder (ITB). Click here.

5) Housing Starts Drop 8.7%, in February. Yes, falling prices will have that effect on a market. Avoid homebuilders more. Waiting to buy at the coming bankruptcy auctions. Click here.
 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:


(WHY I’M SELLING SHORT TESLA SHARES),

(TSLA)

(PINTEREST COMES OUT)

(PINS), (FB), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (AMZN)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 25, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 25, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Mueller Report Gives Trump a Clean Bill of Health, at least on the collusion issue. But it opened up a dozen other lines of investigation that will continue for years. It’s definitely a “RISK ON” development. Click here.

2) Don’t Buy Tesla on This Dip. State car registration data show a big dip in Q1 (TSLA) sales. The company says it is because of transitioning to Tesla 3 mass production. Wait for a 10%-15% dip and then go the whole hog. Click here.

3) US Existing Home Sales Jump 11.8%, in January. Low mortgage interest rates are finally kicking in with the 30-year fixed at 4.23%. This is a one-hit wonder, not the beginning of a new trend. But interest rates are going lower. Click here.

4) US Budget Deficit Jumps 39% in 2019 H1, and the bond market could care less. This will end in tears, but possibly not for years. Click here.

5) The Global Easing Trend is Accelerating, as central banks rush to head off the next global recession. Expect interest rates to drop to levels you once thought impossible. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR GAME CHANGER)

(SPY), (TLT), (BIIB), (GOOG), (BA), (AAPL), (VIX), (USO)

(APPLE’S BIG PUSH INTO SERVICES)

(AAPL), (GS), (NFLX), (GOOGL), (ROKU)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 22, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 22, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Bonds Soar and Rates Crash, taking ten-year US Treasury bond yields down to 2.44%, still reacting to the Wednesday Fed comments. This is the final nail in the bond bear market as global quantitative easing comes back with a vengeance. German ten year bonds turn negative for the first time since 2016. Click here.

2) Interest Rates Invert, with short term rates higher than long term ones for the first time since 2008. That means a recession starts in a year and the stock market starts discounting that in three months. Make hay while the sun shines. Click here.

3) Indonesia Cancels a Massive 737 Order, for 49 planes, slapping the stock on the face for $9. Apparently, they are unwilling to wait for the software fix. Buy the dip in (BA). Click here.

4) Another Brexit Vote Fails, and the European Community gives Britain an extension to May 22. This is a horrible idea entering its death throes. Buy the British pound on dips (FXB).

5) Weak Factory Orders Crush the Market, down 450 points at the low. Terrible economic data is not new these days. But it ain’t over yet. Buy the dip. Click here.


Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(I HAVE AN OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE),

(MARCH 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(BA), (FCX), (IWM), (JNJ), (FXB), (VIX), (JPM)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 21, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 21, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) The Fed Eases Again, by cutting short their balance sheet unwind and ending quantitative tightening early. It amounts to two surprise interest rate cuts and is hugely “RISK ON”. New highs in stocks beckon. This is a game changer. Click here.

2) Biogen Blows Up, canceling their phase three trials for the Alzheimer drug Aducanumab. This is the worst-case scenario for a biotech drug and the stock is down a staggering 30%. Some $12 billion in prospective income is down the toilet. Avoid (BIIB) until the dust settles. Click here.

3) Micron Technology Comes in Line, with weak guidance and production cutbacks, but the shares soar anyway. Go figure. Investors really want to get into this stock in the worst way, even though the industry is still in its down cycle. Click here.

4) Europe Fines Google $1.7 Billion, in the third major penalty in three years. Clearly, there’s a “not invented here” mentality going on. It’s sofa change to the giant search company. Buy (GOOG) on the dip. Click here.

5) Levi Strauss is a Hit, with the shares soaring 35% from the first day IPO price of $17. It’s interesting that the Haas family is unloading their legacy shares at this point in the economic cycle while still maintaining control of the iconic denim maker. Avoid (LEVI). Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(DIVING BACK INTO THE MOUSE HOUSE),

(DIS),

(THE ALPHABET NO-BRAINER),

(GOOGL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 20, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 20, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) It’s All About the Fed Today, which is unlikely to do anything at their 2:00 PM EST announcement. Markets will be frozen until then. How badly is Europe dragging down the US? Click here.

2) CBOE Suspends Bitcoin Futures, due to low volume and weak demand. It could be a fatal blow for the troubled cryptocurrency. Avoid bitcoin and all other cryptos. They’re a Ponzi scheme. Click here.

3) Equity Weightings Hit a 2 ½-Year Low, as professional institutional money managers sell into the rally. They are overweight long defensive REITS and short European stocks. Watch out for the reversal. Click here. (link is to an mp3 file)

4) December Stock Sellers are Now March Buyers. Expect this to lead to a higher high, then a lower low. Volatility is coiling. Don’t forget to sit down when the music stops playing. Click here.

5) Volatility Hits a Six-Month Low, with the $12 handle revisited once again, down from $30. (VIX) could get back to $9 before this is all over. Avoid (VIX), the time decay will kill you.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHO THE GRAND NICARAGUA CANAL HAS WORRIED),

(SCAM OF THE MONTH),

(DON’T PAY UP FOR MONEY-LOSING LYFT),

(LYFT), (UBER), (GRUB), (POSTMATES), (DOORDASH), (GOOGL)

 

Chart of the Day

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 18, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 18, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) More Headaches for Boeing. What can go wrong with a company that has grounded its largest selling product? Answer: they get criminally prosecuted. That was the unhappy news that hit Boeing (BA) this morning, knocking another $7 off the shares. It can’t get any worse than this, can it? Buy this dip in (BA). Click here.

2) Lyft is Aiming for $23 Billion, as a high-end valuation for its IPO. Avoid this one like the plague. When they offer shares to their low-end employees, you want to run a mile. Click here.

3) Oil Prices Hit New Four-Month High, at $58 a barrel as OPEC production caps work and Venezuela melts down. At a certain point, high energy prices are going to hurt the economy. Buy (USO) on dips. Click here.

4) Goldman Sachs Facing Criminal Prosecution, over the Malaysia scandal which could cost them billions. Avoid (GS) like smallpox. Click here.

5) Take Profits in Chip Stocks, after the enormous run since December. Chip demand is actually falling off a cliff. It’s a classic bird in the hand versus two in the bush situation. Sell (MU) and (AMD). Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR A STIFF DOSE OF HUMILITY),

(FCX), (AAPL), (IWM), (SPY), (BA), (FXI), (FXB)

(WHY ALPHABET IS THE BEST FANG TO BUY NOW),

(GOOGL), (NFLX), (FB), (TWTR), (DIS)

 

Chart of the Day

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 15, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 15, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Quadruple Witching Today, with the expiration of the quarterly options. Watch out for last minute gyrations around key strike prices at the close. You can go from in-the-money to out-of-money in a heartbeat. Billions are at stake.

2) Tesla Releases Model Y SUV, but the cheaper $39,000 version won’t be available until 2021 and the stock dives. We are approaching the make-or-break level for the stock, the bottom of a two-year range. Get ready to buy on the meltdown. This is a ten bagger in a decade. Buy (TSLA). Click here.

3) The SEC Sues Volkswagen, for fraud for selling securities while faking mileage stats for its clean diesel cars. It turns out they weren’t so clean after all. VW has already been taken to the cleaners once on this issue, paying $14.9 billion. Avoid VW. Click here.

4) The US Economy Slowed Sharply in Q1, or so says the Federal Reserve, pointing to a 0.4% decline in manufacturing activity in February. Time to be cautious. Click here.

5) The Ides of March are Today. It did not work out well for Julius Caesar. Will it kill off the stock market too? Watch out for friends bearing knives.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(BUY JOHNSON & JOHNSON ON THE BAD NEWS),
(JNJ), ($INDU), (PFE), (NVS), (AZN)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 14, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 14, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Boeing Hits Bottom, as the US becomes the last country to ban the 737 Max 8. Imagine being 35,000 feet in the air and you find out your plane is grounded for safety reasons, as 6,000 people did yesterday. Buy more (BA) on the dip. The next move is from $360 to $450. Click here.

2) New Homes Sales Down 6.9%, in January, far worse than expected. The report is an unmitigated disaster for the industry. If you’re trying to sell a house now, you’re screwed. Click here.

3) Weekly Jobless Claims Jump, by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000. Notice claims aren’t calling anymore. Another sign the tax cut stimulus is shrinking? Click here.

4) The Number of US Millionaires Grew for the 10th Year, to 11.8 million. And some 1.4 million are worth $5 million to $25 million. You’re obviously not working hard enough. Click here.

5) General Electric to Burn $2 billion This Year, but the stock rallies anyway. We may be trying to put in a long term bottom this year. Buy (GE) on the dips. Click here.
  

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(LEARN MORE ABOUT ME THAN YOU PROBABLY WANT TO KNOW),

(GOOG), (AMZN), (AMGN)

(AIRBNB’S SECOND THOUGHTS),

(AIRBNB)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 13, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Pick Your Airline Carefully. Southwest, American, Norwegian, and Icelandic Air have the most 737 Max 8 planes and their shares are getting hammered, while United (UAL) has none. As for me, I either fly my own plane or take the train. Keep buying the dip in (BA). Click here.

2) China Trade Talks to End Within Weeks, deal or no deal, says head US negotiator Robert Lighthizer. What is this, the 45th time the administration has used this headline to goose the market? Traders are getting fed up. Click here.

3) Tesla Unveils its Model Y on Thursday, a small SUV to compete with the Toyota RAV 4. The grab for market share and volume production continues. Firing their sales staff cuts overall costs by 6%. Buy (TSLA) at $260 with a tight stop. Click here.

4) Reverse Mortgages are Making a Big Comeback. Just ask actor Tom Selleck who is making millions advertising them on TV. Be careful, or your mother will end up on the street when the equity goes below zero. Click here.

5) January Construction Spending Up 1.3%, in a rare positive data point. Nothing to say here. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY BOND YIELDS ARE GOING TO ZERO),

(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX),

(TESTIMONIAL)

(NVIDIA STEPS UP ITS GAME),

(NVDA), (INTC), (MSFT), (ANET), (CSCO), (MCHP), (XLNX)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 12, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 12, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) See You at the Skybridge SALT Conference in Las Vegas, May 7-10, the Woodstock of alternative asset investors. Learn what the hedge funds are planning next, and it’s a blast. Discount registration ends on Friday. Check it out by clicking here.

2) The Boeing 737 Max Crisis Widens, with most countries now grounding the ill-fated aircraft. Keep buying the dip in (BA) shares. This is a simple fix. Click here.

3) Dicks Ducks, with disappointing earnings, and the shares dive 10%. Avoid (DKS) and anything retail. Apparently, the market for assault rifles is bigger than we thought, which the company banned last year. Click here.

4) Another Day, Another Brexit Vote set for tonight which will probably fail again. The pound is doing the Watusi. Avoid all UK plays until the issue is decided. Click here.

5) The Buy Back Blackout Starts on Friday for many companies which are not allowed to repurchase their own shares up to 30 days ahead of earnings reports. You take the largest buyers of shares out of the market, what is left? Look to play the short side for the market. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(AN AFTERNOON WITH ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI OF SKYBRIDGE),

(BRK/A), (EEM)

(FIREEYE’S LAST LINE OF DEFENSE),

(FEYE), (MSFT), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (ORCL), (EFX), (IBM)