Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 11, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 11, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1)The Bull Market is Ten Years Old Today, and if you read this letter, you caught every dollar of the move up since then, plus some. But how much longer will it last? The technicals say it’s already in its death throes. Sell short (SPY). Click here.

2) China Trade Negotiations Continue, as they have for a year, but now the Chinese have thrown up a road block. They want everything in writing. In the wake of the North Korean disaster, can you blame them? This will weigh heavily on stocks until it’s done. Click here.

3) The Wall Battle is Back, with the administration proposing $8.6 billion in funding out Thursday. This will NOT make stocks rise. Another shutdown coming? Click here.

4) The Head and Shoulders Top for Stocks is in. If you had any doubts, look at the chart below. Sell every rally for the next two years.

5)China Grounds the New Boeing 737 Max, after two crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia. The stock crashes 10%, shaving 300 points off the Dow Average. It’s probably a local maintenance or pilot training issue. Buy (BA) on the dip. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE CANARIES IN THE COAL MINE ARE DYING)

(SPY), (IWM), (TLT), (GLD), (AAPL), (FXE), (UUP), (FCX)

(THE BEST TECH PLAY IN HEALTH CARE),

(ISRG), (GOOGL), (JNJ)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 8, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 8, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) The Jobs Report is a Disaster, with the February Nonfarm Payroll Report at a minuscule 20,000 and against an average of 210,000. The headline unemployment rate drops to 3.8%. The jobs market has clearly peaked, so the recession is coming. Put on your hard hat and batten down the hatches. Click here.

2) Stocks Get Hammered, on news of the jobs report. Transports are now down 11 days in a row. All major indexes were down every day this week for the first time since 2016. The dreaded head and shoulders top for the entire ten-year bull market is forming. Click here.

3) You Lost $3.7 Trillion in Q4, or so says the Fed about the decline of national personal net worth during the stock market crash, the sharpest decline in a decade. You’re now only worth $104.3 trillion. Get a job. Click here.

4) Equity Fund Flows the Worst since 2008, with $60 billion in redemptions so far in 2019. Not that I’m trying to get you to choke on your coffee and doughnut this morning, but cash is fleeing the stock market at a record pace. Maybe you should too. Click here.   

5) The Rich People Shortage Worsens, at least if you are trying to sell a high-end home. Over 500 homes are for sale in Manhattan for over $10 million each. What? You don’t have a helicopter landing pad on your roof? Horrors! That is so down market. Get another job. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(MARCH 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(SPY), (SDS), (TLT), (TBT), (GE), (IYM),

(MSFT), (IWM), (AAPL), (ITB), (FCX), (FXE)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 7, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 7, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) US Growth is Fading, says the Fed Beige Book, slowing to a “slight to moderate rate”. The government shutdown is the cause. With Europe already in recession, I’ll be using rallies to increase my shorts. Sell (SPY) and (IWM). Click here.

2) No More Stress Test for Banks, as a pro-business Fed relaxes rules. This paves the way for the next financial crisis. Avoid banks like a bad tip from your bookie. Click here.

3) Healthcare Gets Hammered, as the sector is about to become a political football in the upcoming 2020 election. Avoid for now. Click here.

4) ECB Cuts Europe Growth Forecast Sharply, from 1.7% to 1.1%. Stimulus to renew on all front including more quantitative easing. It’s just a matter of time before their recession pulls the US down. Sell the Euro (FXE). Click here.

5) Initial Jobless Claim Falls by 3,000 to 223,000. If there is any trouble with the economy, it is certainly not on the jobs front. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(BETTER BATTERIES HAVE BECOME BIG DISRUPTERS)

(TSLA), (XOM), (USO)

(WILL NIO EAT TESLA’S LUNCH?),

(TSLA), (XPENG), (NIO)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 6, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 6, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Interest Rates Going to Zero in 2020, as the US goes into recession, or so says Texas hedge fund giant Kyle Bass. Unfortunately, his record is not great. He has been predicting Japan and the yen would collapse for years and it didn’t. Oops! Click here.

2) US Trade Deficit Hits Ten Year High, at $59.8 billion for December, and a staggering $419 billion for the year. It’s funny how foreigners stop buying your goods when you declare war on them. Even Teslas are being stopped at the border in China. Who knew? Click here.

3) FDA Commissioner Suddenly Resigns. Scott Gottleib quit with no notice. He was tough on tobacco and vaping for kids and it seems they complained to the boss. Someone easier on the industry will replace him. Buy the beneficiaries, big pharma and tobacco stocks. Click here.

4) FDA Approves New Antidepression Drug, for the first time in a decade. Expect to hear a lot more about “Spravato” made by Johnson & Johnson. Where do they come up with these bizarre names anyway? Click here.

5) New Trade Tariffs Hit US Consumers the Hardest, adding $69 billion to their annual bill. Falling real earnings and rising costs is hardly a sustainable model. Will someone please tell the president? Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WILL UNICORNS KILL THE BULL MARKET?),

(TSLA), (NFLX), (DB), (DOCU), (EB), (SVMK), (ZUO), (SQ),

(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY), (TLT)

(BUY SALESFORCE ON THE DIP),

(CRM)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 5, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 5, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) China Cuts Growth Forecast, from 6.5% to 6.0% GDP growth for 2019. The trade war with the US and the stimulus haven’t kicked in yet. The last time they did this, the market fell 1,000 points. Buy (FXI) on the dip. Click here.

2) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Pops in February from 57.2 estimated to 59.7. Another rare positive data point for the economy. Services are still alive while manufacturing is dying. Buy tech, sell industrials. Click here.

3) New Homes Sales Bounce in December, up only 3.7% to an annual 621,000 rate after a horrific November. If you can’t sell a home with rates this low, you never will. Avoid homebuilders. Click here.

4) Trump Starts New Trade War Against India, eliminating $5.7 billion in import exemptions. You’re going to have to start paying more for those cheap clothes. Click here.

5) The US Dollar is Driving All Trades Right Now, and has been rising. Buy tech, avoid commodities for at least a few days. But without rising rates, it’s only a short term play. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),

(AAPL), (INTC), (ORCL), (CAT), (IBM),

(TESTIMONIAL)

(MEET THE PREMIER DINOSAUR OF OUR TIME),

(HPQ), (LNVGY), (DVMT), (AAPL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 4, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 4, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) China Shares Soar. Massive stimulus and a coming end to the trade war could make China the top performing major market this year. Click here.

2) Dollar Soars and Gold Gets Hammered. You can blame the slightly stronger GDP print on Thursday which came in at 2.2% instead of 1.8%. As long as Jay doesn’t raise interest rates, this is just a brief short-covering rally for the buck. Click here.

3) US Construction Spending Falls Off a Cliff, down 0.6% in December. Nobody wants to invest ahead of a recession. Click here.

4) Tesla to Announce Model Y on March 14. The down market SUV will offer a cheaper Model X alternative. Can’t wait to hear the price, even if it won’t be available until 2020. Click here.

5) Chinese Telecom Giant Huawei to Sue US Government. It used to be them sending a division of screaming soldiers at us with machine guns. Now they sue. How times have changed. I definitely prefer the former than the latter. Click here.
  
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE RECESSION HAS BEGUN),

(SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (AAPL)

(RIDING THE EBAY BOOM),

(EBAY), (ETSY), (W)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 1, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 1, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Q4 GDP Growth Dives to 2.6%, down from 3.5% in Q3. The entire stimulus package is looking like a one-hit wonder. And the government shutdown will shave 75 basis points off the next quarter. Click here.

2) Initial Jobless Claims Up 8,000, to 225,000. It’s still hugging a 40-year low. Good luck hiring a gardener. Click here.

3) Chicago Purchasing Manager Index Soars, from an expected 56.1 to 64.7, a 14-month high. It’s a rare piece of good news from a rapidly deteriorating economy. It’s also another nail in the coffin of the bond market. Click here.

4) Tesla Launches $35,000 Model 3, and they’re closing most stores to finance it. Electric cars for the masses, a decade-long promise, is finally here. The new Tesla 3 will have a 220 miles range. Plummeting battery prices were the clincher. Buy (TSLA), sell (GM). Click here.

5) Morgan Stanley Quadruples China Weighting in its Global Index, and stocks in the Middle Kingdom soar. With a Chinese victory in the trade talks imminent, it might be a good time to get in. Buy (FXI). Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(OH, HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN),

(BRK/A), (AXP), (AAPL), (BAC), (KO), (WFC), (KHT),

(AMGEN’S BIG WIN),

(AMGN), (SNY), (REGN)

(ABOUT THE TRADE ALERT DROUGHT),

(SPY), (GLD), (TLT), (MSFT)

 

Your Next Car

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 28, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 28, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Bonds Get Crushed, down 1.38 points yesterday as the great “crowding out” begins. Massive corporate borrowing can’t compete with government borrowing, so rates are rising sharply. This is the beginning of the end. Sell short the (TLT). Click here.

2) 30 Feet of Snow in One Month, at Lake Tahoe is a new all-time record for a single month. It looks like my roof is going to get crushed for the second year in three. My insurance company hates me. I don’t know about you, but climate change is kicking my butt. Click here.

3) US Factory Orders Come in Incredibly Weak, at 0.1% in December when 0.6% was expected. Recession indicator number one million. Limit your risk. Click here.

4) Home Depot Announces a New $15 Billion Share Buy Back, to their existing program. It is the best investment they could ever make. (HD) has bought back 25% of its shares since 2010 while the shares rose by 2,000%. Companies are now the sole net buyers of stock in the market. Buy (HD) on dips.

5) 11 Million Americans Paying Substantially Higher Taxes, thanks to the loss of $323 billion in local tax deductions. The cap is now set at $10,000. Complain to your congressman. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(GOLD IS BREAK OUT ALL OVER),

(GLD), (GDX), (NEM),

(THE STEM CELLS IN YOUR INVESTMENT FUTURE)

(CELG), (TMO), (REGN)

(WHY ETSY KNOCKED IT OUT OF THE PARK),

(ETSY), (AMZN), (WMT), (TGT), (JCP), (M)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 27, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 27, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Jay Stays Dovish Again, but markets yawn this time. How much mileage can you get from the same vague assertion? Shorts are about to swarm the market. Take profits on all longs. Click here.

2) India Attack Gives Gold a Boost. Even its one-day war with Pakistan is positive for the barbarous relic. Buy Gold (GLD) on Dips. Click here.

3) US Dollar Hits a Three-Week Low. The Fed’s dovish leanings are hammering the buck. Keep loading the boat with weak dollar plays, like emerging markets (EEM). Click here.

4) Wynn Resorts Gets Hit with $20 Million Fine, by Nevada regulators for sexual misconduct of the management. Stock doesn’t care as worse was expected. Apparently, everything DOESN’T stay in Vegas. Avoid (WYNN). Click here.

5) Pending Home Sales Jump 4.6%, in January in a rare positive data point from real estate. Still down 2.3% YOY. Lower interest rates are a factor. The West was the weakest where prices are highest. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY CHINA’S US TREASURY DUMP WILL CRUSH THE BOND MARKET),

(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX), (FCX), (FXE), (FXY), (FXA), (USO), (OXY), (ITB), (LEN), (HD), (GLD), (SLV), (CU),

(THE 13 NEW TRADING RULES FOR 2019)

(HOW AUTONOMOUS DRIVING WILL CHANGE THE WORLD),

(TSLA), (GM), (GOOGL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 26, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 26, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Elon Musk is in Hot Water Again, with the SEC asking for a new contempt of court proceeding. The stock is doing a swan dive. Get ready to buy the dip. Apparently, the Fed standard for future auto sale forecasts is higher than Elon’s. Click here.

2) This Will be the Worst Year for Housing in a Decade, or so says a Reuters poll. High prices, the loss of tax deductions, and recession fears are weighing heavily on this market. Avoid. Click here.

3) Oil Sees Its Biggest Dive This Year, and not even a horrendous winter is helping. We now have 50 feet at Lake Tahoe this winter. Buy (USO) on the dip. Click here.

4) Companies are the Last Buyers in this Bull Market, with everyone and his brother using the strength to get out. Equity mutual funds still seeing huge net redemptions. Don’t buy stocks here on pain of death. Click here.

5) Netflix Wins Big on Oscar Night, as the Spanish speaking “Roma” picks up three Academy Awards. The Hollywood establishment thumbed their noses at the streaming giant by passing on “Best Picture.” If you want to play their game, you have to play by their rules. Still, the moat is getting too big to cross. Buy (NFLX) in dips. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(ABOUT THE TRADE ALERT DROUGHT),

(SPY), (GLD), (TLT), (MSFT),

(THE NEW OFFSHORE CENTER: AMERICA)

(TESTIMONIAL)

(WHY THE BIG PLAY IS IN SOFTWARE),

(AMZN), (WMT), (ZEN), (FB), (TWLO)