Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 25, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 25, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Merger Fever Hits the Gold Industry, with Barrick Gold (GOLD) taking a run at Newmont Mining (NEM), the world’s first and second largest producers. It’s all about efficiencies of scale. Take this as a long-term bottom in gold prices. Click here.

2) China Tariff Hike Postponed Indefinitely, and Chinese stocks love it. Import duties stay at 10%, instead of rising by 25% starting on Friday. We knew it was never going to happen. Some 95% of the China trade deal is now already priced into the market. Click here.

3) GE Sells Biotech business for $21 Billion, They’re selling off the crown jewels to salvage the balance sheet. Stock loves it, up 11%. Click here.

4) Most Economists See Recession by 2021, at the latest. That really means it will really start in late 2020.  Sell those rallies. You don’t want to be left standing when the music stops playing. Click here.

5) Wholesale Inventories Rising Sharply, up 1.1% in another recession indicator.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE BEST OF TIMES AND THE WORST OF TIMES),

(SPY), (TLT), (TLT), (VIX), (KHC), (MAT), (MMT), (GLD)

(THE CLEANEST INTERNET PLAY OUT THERE),

(GDDY), (WIX), (CSCO)

My Pick Won Best Picture!

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 22, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 22, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Europe is Falling into Recession, and they will likely take us with them. February Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2, a three-year low. You obviously haven’t been buying enough Burberry coats, Mercedes, or French wine. Click here.

2) US Crude Production Hits 12 Million Barrels a Day. That’s up 25% in a year. It’s been a long wait, but we finally did it! Goodbye OPEC. Buy US oil infrastructure plays like Schlumberger (SLB). Click here.

3) Feds Subpoena Kraft Heinz, and stock dives 27% over accounting problems. Warren Buffet takes a $4 billion hit. What really is in that ketchup anyway, besides sugar and red dye number two? Avoid (KHC). Click here.

4) Johnson & Johnson is Facing an Investigation Too, over rumors of asbestos in their baby powder. It’s probably a long-simmering urban legend. Ignore. Click here.

5) Consumer Reports Pulls its Tesla 3 Recommendation, citing reliability problems. Their customer support sucks too. Buy the dip in (TSLA). This is just a growing pain. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(FEBRUARY 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(NVDA), (MU), (AMD), (LRCX), (GLD), (FXE), (FXB), (AMZN),

(PLAY IT SAFE WITH ANTHEM), (ANTM), (CI)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 21, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 21, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Fed Pause Lives! Or so the minutes from the January FOMC meeting imply. Lower interest rates for longer offer more benefits than risks. Less heat from the president too. Click here.
 
2) Will a China Trade Deal Resume the Fed’s Interest Rates Hiking Schedule? If they do you can kiss this rally goodbye. Still, that’s Q2 business. Click here.

3) Existing Home Sales Fall 1.2%, in January. Down three months in a row to a three year low. Get used to this. Housing is going to stay weak for a while. Click here.

4) Durable Goods Dive 1.2%, in January in a big surprise. Notice that virtually all economic data reports are turning negative. Recession, here we come! Click here.

5) Amtrak to End Long Distance Trains, in order to focus more capital spending on commuter trains. From now on, you’ll have to see America by bus. I’ll miss the California Zephyr, which carried me from Chicago to the coast, as well as the Starlight Express, which transported me in luxury from San Francisco to Seattle. Congress will vote on the matter by yearend. That clickety-clack still rings in my ears. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(SHORT SELLING SCHOOL 101),

(SH), (SDS), (PSQ), (DOG), (RWM), (SPXU), (AAPL),

(VIX), (VXX), (IPO), (MTUM), (SPHB), (HDGE),

(BUY AMD ON THE DIP),

(AMD), (NVDA), (INTC),

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 20, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 20, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Walmart Sales Up 46% in Q4. Are they the next FANG? Same store sales jump at the fastest pace in ten years on soaring grocery sales. The Wall family certainly hopes so. Buy (WMT). Click here.

2) The Volatility Index Hits for $14 Handle for the First Time in Five Months. Suddenly, fire insurance is offered at a deep discount. Time to buy? Click here.

3) Gold Hits a Ten-Month High, and We are Long. The new supercycle for commodities has already started. Get on board before the train leaves the station. Buy (GLD). Click here.

4) Oil Hits a New 2019 High on China Trade Hopes. The Middle Kingdom is the world’s largest marginal buyer of new oil. Oh, and it’s a commodity too. Buy (USO). Click here.

5) Homebuilder Sentiment Rises for the First Time in Months, from 58 to 62. Absurdly, low-interest rates are finally having a positive effect. A rare piece of positive news from the sector. Click here.
 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPER CYCLE HAS ALREADY STARTED),

(COPX), (GLD), (FCX), (BHP), (RIO), (SIL),

(PPLT), (PALL), (GOLD), (ECH), (EWZ), (IDX),

(WHY THE REAL ESTATE BOOM HAS A DECADE TO RUN),

(DHI), (LEN), (PHM), (ITB)

(WAL-MART’S DRAMATIC SAVE),

(WMT), (AMZN)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 19, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 19, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Mad Hedge Hits New All-Time High, up 3.31% in February,  12.79% in 2019, and 32.90% on a trailing one-year basis. We’ve nailed every trend this year, long big tech, long gold, and short bonds. The harder I work the luckier I get. Click here.

2) High-End Real Estate Prices are Getting Cut by 30%. It seems billionaires are trying to grab a chair before the music stops playing. Click here.

3) Wednesday FOMC Minutes this Week May Tell the Whole Story. Is the Fed pausing because the economy is falling apart? If so, it’s terrible news for stocks just short of all-time highs. Add downside protection. Buy (SDS). Click here.

4) No Toys for Mattel, which saw the worst stock drop in 20 years on the back of poor earnings and worse guidance. Another leading indicator of a weak economy. Barbie isn’t putting out. Click here.

5) China Trade Talks Resume This Week. However, resolution by the March 1 deadline could trigger one of the greatest “Sell the news” events of all time. Add more downside hedges. Click here.
 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:


(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or ALARM BELLS ARE RINGING)

(SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (AMZN)

THE SAFE PLACE TO HIDE IN TECH),

(CSCO), (ORCL), (WDAY), (ZEN), (HUBS), (NOW), (PYPL), (VEEV), (TWLO)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 15, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 15, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) December Retail Sales Come in at a Disastrous Ten-Year Low. If you’re looking for an early recession indicator, this is a big one. Maybe it’s because the prices are falling so fast? Click here.

2) Amazon Tells New York to Drop Dead, as it cancels plans to build a second headquarters in New York, thanks to opposition from a local minority. More likely, they don’t want to expand their business ahead of a recession. Jeff Bezos can see into the future much better than we can. Click here.

3) Positive News on China Trade Talks Spike Markets. Unfortunately, this is probably the last 10% of the China trade deal rally. Look out below! Click here.

4) NVIDIA Beats, Stock Rocks, juicing the stock by 8%.  The top graphics card maker produced a slight increase in earnings when everyone was counting on a decline. This is an easy double over the long term. Buy (NVDA). Click here.

5) Car Sales Fall at the Fastest Rate in a Decade, as US Manufacturing Output drives off a cliff. There is also a subprime crisis going on here, if you haven’t heard. Click here.
  

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE CONTINUING DEATH OF RETAIL),

(AMZN), (WMT), (M), (JWN),

(TESTIMONIAL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 14, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 14, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Auto Loans Hit the Highest Delinquency Rate in 19 Years. Some 9% of all car loans are more than 3 months late. Is this the preview to the next financial crisis? Click here.

2) Business Confidence Hits a Two-Year Low, and Consumer Confidence hits an eight-year low. It seems a government shutdown and a stock market crash are not good for business. Now that stocks are up, will confidence return? Click here.

3) Google Investing $13 Billion in Data Centers. They must think their business outlook is pretty good. So do I. Buy (GOOGL). Click here.

4) Levi Strauss to Go Public. They have 501 blue jeans with shiny copper rivets, but it is a terrible investment idea. A low margin retailer in a cutthroat industry competing with China? You must be kidding. It’s another market-topping indicator. Click here.

5) Inflation Hits a One-Month Low, with the Consumer Price index Coming in at only 1.9%. It means the next recession will bring the deflation. Click here.
 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY I’M AVOIDING PFIZER LIKE THE PLAGUE)

(PFE), (MRK), (MVS),

(THE LIQUIDITY CRISIS COMING TO A MARKET NEAR YOU),

(TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD),

(TESTIMONIAL)

(FACEBOOK’S NEW PROBLEM),

(FB), (GOOGL), (TRIP), (EXPE)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 13, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) US National Debt Tops $22 Trillion, surpassing the GDP. And you wondered why I was making so much money selling short the bond market? The day when the Feds crowd out private borrowers is fast approaching. The last time we ran a tab like this we were winning WWII. Click here.

2) Trump is Going to Miss His March 1 China Deadline, and the stock market could care less. Imagine how high stocks would be flying now if we WEREN’T flighting a trade war. Click here.

3) Charles Schwab/Fidelity Price War Cuts Commissions to the Bone. It’s just a matter of time before they hit zero. All the money is made now selling your order flow to high-frequency traders. Time to renegotiate your relationship with your broker. Click here.

4) US Job Openings Hit Record High, with 7.6 million “help wanted” signs in December, says the JOLTS REPORT Yes, even your uncle Ernie can get a job now. So, where is the wage inflation? Click here.

5) In the Meantime, American Personal Debt is Soaring, hitting a new apex at $13.5 trillion. Some 9.1% of this is already delinquent and credit cards are being canceled at an alarming pace. Click here.
 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(BIDDING MORE FOR THE STARS),

(SPY), (INDU), (NVDA)

(NOW THE FAT LADY IS REALLY SINGING FOR THE BOND MARKET),

(TLT), (TBT)
(WHY THE FUTURE IS NOT IN FURNITURE),

(W), (NWARF), (AMZN)

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 12, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 12, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Oil Dives on Shutdown Prospects, off 5% in a week discounting another hit to the global economy. Keep those hedges working. Click here.

2) Amazon Added More Square Feet than Any Other Company last year, bringing the total to 288 million square feet. That is a staggering 28 World Trade Centers. Do they know something we don’t? Buy the dips (AMZN).

3) Brexit Destroys the UK Economy, as the deadline nears with growth at a seven-year low. Will they fill in the Channel Tunnel? Click here.

4) Investors Dashed for Cash in 2018, and Now it’s Trash. With stocks up 9.4% in 2019, or some 2,200 Dow points, many are left to read about it in the newspapers. Mad Hedge caught the whole move and then some. Click here.

5) Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All-Time High, up +9.48% in January alone and +11.63% year-to-date. Buying tech stocks at the bottom and selling short US Treasury bonds against them has worked like a charm. David Tepper eat your heart out! Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, APRIL 20 OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (TLT),

(PLEASE SIGN UP NOW FOR MY FREE TEXT ALERT SERVICE NOW),

(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!),

(MEET YOUR HOME OF THE FUTURE),
(KASITA),

 

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 11, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 11, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) What a Round Trip it has Been! Since the tax bill passed in December 2017, the return on the stock market has been ABSOLUTELY ZERO! What we gained in tax breaks we lost in trade wars. Except that now the bill is due with $1.8 trillion in new government borrowing this year. Oops! That is NOT what they promised.

2) NY Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Estimates, to below 2% with more cuts to come. Trade war uncertainty cited as the number one reason. Click here.

3) Remember Those Puerto Rican Bonds? A hedge fund, Tilden Park Capital Management LP, just made an $18 million killing off of the latest restructuring while another got tagged for $6 million. That’s what you get for playing in the deep end of the pool. Leave this high risk/high return game to the pros. Click here.

4) You Finally Got Your Tesla. Now, how do you get it fixed? Some 400,000 new cars this year will perilously overload the company’s infrastructure. Use every piece of bad news to buy more stock. The upside breakout is coming. Click here.

5) Put on Your Hard Hat, Consumer Spending is slowing. That means the recession is near. Fund managers are universally moving into defensive and value stocks. So should you. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or DON’T STAND NEXT TO THE DUMMY),

(AAPL), (MSFT), (TSLA), (VIX), (TLT), (TBT), (FXI)

(HOW FORTNITE IS TAKING OVER THE GAMING WORLD),

(TTWO), (EA), (ATVI), (NFLX), (FORTNITE)