Mad Hedge

HOT TIPS

April 15, 2024

Fiat Lux

The Entry Level Service for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today

(and what to do about them)

Mad Hedge Hits New All-Time High.

So far in April, we are up +5.20%. My 2024 year-to-date performance is at +14.47%. The S&P 500 (SPY) is up +7.22% so far in 2024. My trailing one-year return reached +46.01% versus +36.12% for the S&P 500. That brings my 16-year total return to +691.20%. My average annualized return has recovered to +51.84%. Some 20 of 26 trades have been profitable so far in 2024.

 

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Volatility Index ($VIX) Hits Six-Month High,

on threats of a new Iran war, oil supply cut-offs, and topping stocks. It’s been a long and dry desert crossing, but we are finally back to reaching the $20 handle. The volatility trade is back. For a double bonus, the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index also dropped below 50 for the first time since October. Options traders will love it!

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Biden Boosts the Cost of Alaska Oil Drilling Leases,

from $10,000 to $160,000, the first increase since 1920. There is also a bump in the royalty on extracted oil, from 12.25% to 16.27%. The government is no longer giving away oil found on its land for free. Coddling of the oil companies is over. Oil companies will no longer bid for cheap oil leases with the intention of sitting on them for decades. The US is currently the largest oil-producing country in history at 13 million barrels/day and hardly needs any subsidies, which date back to the Great Depression. Buy energy stocks on dips, like (XOM) and (OXY), which are posting record profits.

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US Retail Sales Come in Hot,

up 0.7% in March. February was revised higher. So-called control-group sales — which are used to calculate gross domestic product — jumped 1.1%, the most since the start of last year. That likely bodes well for first-quarter GDP, especially after the February reading was revised higher.

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Tesla Cuts 10% of Workforce,

in a bid to survive the current nuclear winter in EV sales. Tesla shares have taken a bruising in recent months, falling 31% year-to-date. While electric vehicle sales are still gaining popularity worldwide, their sales growth rate has slowed especially for Tesla. The company now faces more competition than ever.

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Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch, the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, the Mad Hedge Biotech and Health Care Letter, the Mad Hedge AI Letter, and Jacquie’s Post:

Global Trading Dispatch

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or VOLATILITY IS BACK!)

(REMEMBERING TRINITY)

(TLT), (TSLA), NVIDIA (NVDA). (FCX),

(XOM), (WPM), (GLD), (FXI), (FXY), (USO)


Mad Hedge Technology Letter

(THE NEW COMPETITION IN EVS)

(XIAOMI)


Mad Hedge Biotech & Health Care Letter

(IS THIS BIOTECH BULL RUN OUT OF STEAM?)

(VRTX), (CRSP)


Mad Hedge Jacque's Post

(GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS TAKE CENTRE STAGE)


Mad Hedge AI

(THE BRAINS AND BRAWN OF THE AI BOOM)

(PLTR), (ARM), (AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (NVDA)

 

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