December 15, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
MDT AlertWhile the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected? $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected? $.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $.48
FEYE Long at $13.65
Short Dec 16th-$14 Call - $.40
DDD Long at $15.16
Short Dec 16th-$15.50 Call - $.24
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The Fed ended their two day meeting with announcing the long awaited rate hike.? They increased the short term rates by 25 basis points.? They also announced they plan to boost rates three times next year.
The TLT responded by dropping 1.12% and the GLD dropped 1.47%.
The S & P 500 dropped 18.44 points or .81%, to close at 2,253.28. After closing above 2,257.81 on Tuesday, the market failed to close above it for two days.? This mean it will need two consecutive closes above that level to make an attempt at 2,281.30.
On yesterday?s webinar, questions about shorting this market were front and center. I highlighted where key levels are for the markets.? For example, for the S & P 500, the upper extreme bollinger band on the monthly chart is 2,276.67 and on Tuesday, the high was 2,276.20.
So, the market stalled right at the upper band before yesterday?s sell off. And yesterday?s sell off came on higher down to up volume.? The down to up volume was 5.41, which does not indicate a climax, but is bearish.
Back to the issue of shorting the markets.
At this point, I would expect another rally in the market.? I could be wrong, but because the S & P 500 broke above 2,250, I expect another run up after this pullback.
The market could stall at 2,242 or possibly at the 2,219 level.? I would not expect a sell off below 2,219.? If could drop slightly under that level, but I don?t see a drop to 2,187.
If you want to short follow the levels on the VIX to see where it reverses and pull off profits or trail stops.? That?s my feeling at the moment.
Continue to monitor the levels for entry points.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level ? 14.06
Minor level ? 13.67
Minor level ? 12.89 **
Major level - 12.50
Minor level ? 12.11
Minor level ? 11.33
Major level ? 10.94
Major level ?? 9.38
The VIX closed at 13.19, just above 12.89.? The implication is if it closes above 12.89 today, expect the VIX to move up to 14.06.? I would expect resistance at 14.06.? So, it if does take out 14.06, look for the market to continue lower.
Could be the beginning of the spike we have been looking for.
$SPX:
Major level ? 2,281.30
Minor level ? 2,273.48
Minor level ? 2,257.82 **
Major level - 2,250.00 **
Minor level - 2,242.18
Minor level - 2,226.62
Major level - 2,218.80
With a failure to close above the 2,257.82 level, it could now offer some resistance.
Still minor resistance at 2,273.48.? To move lower, the S & P 500 needs two closes under 2,242.18.? 2,234 could offer minor support.
QQQ:
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53 ***
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.84
The QQQ was not as bearish as the S & P 500, forming an inside day yesterday.? It closed at 120.21.? It was also the second day where the QQQ closed above 119.53, which means the objective should be to 121.88.
119.92 should still be support. 121.48 could offer minor resistance.? Be aware that the
S & P 500 and the QQQ are diverging at the moment.
TLT:?
Major level ? 125.00
Minor level ? 124.22
Minor level ? 122.66
Major level ? 121.88
Minor level ? 121.09
Minor level ? 119.53
Major level ? 118.75 **
Minor level -? 117.96 *
Minor level ? 116.41
Major level ? 115.62
The TLT closed at 116.82.? Objective is to 115 and to possibly the 112 level.
117.19 should be resistance.? 116 minor support.
GLD:
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38 **
Major level: 106.25
The GLD had its first close under 109.38 yesterday, dropping 1.62 to close at 108.63.? This is significant because if the GLD closes under 109.38 today, it should drop to 103 and possibly 100.
The daily chart has still not crossed into a downtrend.
109.38 should now be resistance.
XLE:
Major level ? 78.13
Minor level ? 76.56 **
Minor level ? 75.78
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 74.22
Minor level
- 72.66
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53
The XLE closed at 76.27 yesterday, down 1.56. ?A close today under 76.56 and the XLE should test 75.
Just like the S & P, I would expect another rally once this sell off calms down.? 71.88 would be the lowest I would expect the XLE to drop.
FXY:
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
Major level: 82.81
Major level: 81.25 **
Major level: 79.69
The FXY is almost down to the long term objective of 81.? How the FXY trade around the 81 level will tell us a lot.
Continue to sell rallies.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 118.75, 115.63, 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Continue to look for a long entry. All timeframes in uptrend formation. A pullback to 112 could be the area to buy.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: PCLN, GS, SPY, FDX, IBM, BA, CB, ACN, CLB, UPS, CVX, JACK, AGU, WBA, TIF, RS, ETN
Bearish Stocks:? ILMN, PRGO, TEVA, MAT, AKRX
Be sure to check earnings release dates
