December 16, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
MDT AlertWhile the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected? $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected? $.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $.48
FEYE Long at $13.65
Short Dec 16th-$14 Call - $.40
DDD Long at $15.16
Short Dec 16th-$15.50 Call - $.24
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Before I discuss yesterday?s price and its implications, I need to mention that there are two positions that expire this afternoon.
They are the short $15.50 call on DDD and the short $14 call on FEYE.? DDD closed at $15.26 yesterday, so it within $.25 of the strike and FEYE closed about 80 cents under the $14 strike.
I will send a separate email later today if any adjustments need to be made.
Yesterday?s price action is the perfect example of what can happen during a strong bull run.? As you know, I have been warning against attempting to short this market ? at this time.
Just as it looked like the market would sell off, it turns and recoups 8.75 points from the sell off after the Fed announcement.
And recaptures the 2,257.81 level, closing at 2,262.03.? And the VIX reversed to the downside to close at 12.79, back under the upside confirming line of 12.89.
This all happened after the down to up volume picked up on the day of the Fed announcement.
But, with the intra day charts, along with the daily and weekly charts for the S & P 500 in bullish uptrend formations, bounces are expected.
Now that the S & P 500 closed back above the 2,257.81 level, it becomes the strategic price to watch today.? A close today above that price and it sets up a scenario where the objective for the market should be 2,281.30.
You also want to watch the VIX to see if it can reclaim the 12.89 level.? However, that level should now act as resistance.
Continue to monitor the levels for entry points.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level ? 14.06
Minor level ? 13.67
Minor level ? 12.89 **
Major level - 12.50
Minor level ? 12.11
Minor level ? 11.33
Major level ? 10.94
Major level ?? 9.38
Back under 12.89, which means that the VIX will still need two closes above that level to move to 14.06.? 12.50 is also a support level, if it breaks under 12.50 look for it to move lower.
13.28 should be minor resistance.
$SPX:
Major level ? 2,281.30
Minor level ? 2,273.48
Minor level ? 2,257.82 **
Major level - 2,250.00 **
Minor level - 2,242.18
Minor level - 2,226.62
Major level - 2,218.80
Monitor the 2,257.82 level today. 2,250 should offer support.
2,273 could offer resistance.
QQQ:
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53 ***
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.84
A close today above 119.53 and the QQQ should make a run at 121.88. 120.31 should offer short term support.
Also, 120.12 could offer support.? 120.90 could offer resistance.
TLT:?
Major level ? 125.00
Minor level ? 124.22
Minor level ? 122.66
Major level ? 121.88
Minor level ? 121.09
Minor level ? 119.53
Major level ? 118.75 *
Minor level -? 117.96 *
Minor level ? 116.41
Major level ? 115.62
Objective for the TLT should be down to 115.62, however it is oversold short term.
116.41 is a short term level where a bounce could happen.
GLD:?
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38 **
Major level: 106.25
The GLD had its second close under 109.38 yesterday, dropping to close at 107.34.? Long term objective now becomes 100.
The daily chart has still not crossed into a downtrend, but is very close.
109.38 should now be resistance.? 106.25 could offer support.
XLE:
Major level ? 78.13
Minor level ? 76.56 **
Minor level ? 75.78
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 74.22
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53
The XLE stopped at 75.12, just 12 cents above the 75 support level. It closed at 76.04, so if it closes above that level today, it should test 78.13.
75.78 should be minor support.
FXY:
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
Major level: 82.81
Major level: 81.25 **
Maj
or level: 79.69
The FXY came within 11 cents of the long term objective I was looking for.? Now what?
Here is what I am looking for. If the FXY breaks under 81.25, I would expect it to bounce around for while before a directional move begins again.
Also, on a break under 81.25, the key price level to watch is 78.13.? If it continues under that level, I would expect more downside.
Opportunity continues to exist to short rallies.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 118.75, 115.63, 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple closed above 115.63, at 115.82 yesterday.? Buying short term sell offs is the strategy at the moment.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: PCLN, GS, SPY, FDX, IBM, BA, CB, ACN, CLB, UPS, CVX, JACK, AGU, WBA, TIF, RS, ETN
Bearish Stocks:? ILMN, PRGO, TEVA, MAT, AKRX
Be sure to check earnings release dates