December 7, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
 
ASNALong at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUSTLong $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAPLong at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65

OILong Feb $19 call @ $1.70

MDRLong @ $9.31

PHM Long Dec $25.50 put @ $0.80
PHMShort Dec $24.00 put @ ($0.35)

DDDLong at $11.97
DDDShort December $12 call @ $0.70
......................................................................................... 

If you followed the alert from yesterday, you would have added a covered call on DDD.  These are the December monthly calls.

The market opened yesterday with a 36.55 bearish gap and proceeded to drop to a low of 2,621.53.

After finding the bottom, the market rallied back to essentially fill the bearish gap.

The low of the gap was 2,697.18 and the high for the day was 2,696.15.  So it came to within a point of filling it completely.

And with that move, the S & P 500 closed at 100% of the daily bar.

As you know, this puts the odds of violating yesterday's high before the low as a certainty.

And the support area from yesterday's daily price bar should be in the 2,680 area. 

If we scale out to the weekly price bar, we see the bar has had a range of 178.65 points.

With a weekly average true range of 90.52, it would suggest that the range for the week is in.  That is we have had the print for the high and the low.

The question now is where will we close this week?

The midpoint of the weekly bar so far is 2,710.

And yesterday the market closed about 15 points below it.

Watch the 2,710 area if the market can rally today.

Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 15 points lower.  This can certainly change with the release of the Non Farm Payroll this morning at 8:30 AM EST.

Continue to monitor the levels as I mentioned above.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX: 
 
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00 
Minor level: 23.44 
Minor level: 20.31 **
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06 
Major level: 12.50 

After the massive 25.5% spike on Tuesday, the VIX jumped up to a high of 25.94 yesterday, before dropping to close at 21.19.

We were looking for a move up to the 25 area and we got that yesterday.

At this point, I would expect resistance at the 23.44 level.  And with a close under 23.44 today, it would suggest a drop to 18.75.

SPX: 

Minor level: 2,805.20 
Major level: 2,793.00 
Minor level: 2,780.78 
Minor level: 2,756.33 
Major level: 2,744.10 
Minor level: 2,731.90 
Minor level: 2,707.50 
Major level: 2,695.30 
Minor level: 2,683.10 **
Minor level: 2,658.70 
Major level: 2,646.50 
Minor level: 2,634.30 
Minor level: 2,609.90
Major level: 2,597.70

2,675.80 should be a minor support level.  I would not expect a close under that level today.  

Watch to see if the 2,675.80 holds as support after the open.

On the downside, the key level should be 2,646.50.

Watch to see if the S & P 500 can clear 2,695.30 today.  If it can, it would be bullish.
 
QQQ:  

Major level: 175.00   
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 
Major level: 168.75 
Minor level: 167.19 
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94 
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 

The QQQ also reversed and closed at 166.89.  It closed 1.17 points higher.  It is still under the midband on the daily chart.  That level is 169.64 and should be resistance.

At this point, I would expect support at the 162.50 level.  A close today above 164.06 would imply a move up to 168.75.

IWM:

Major level: 162.50 
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 
Major level: 156.25 
Minor level: 154.69 
Minor level: 151.56 
Major level: 150.00 
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75 

The IWM closed at 147.20.  It closed down 0.32 on the day.  

With a drop under the 148.44 level, this now suggests that if the IWM closes under that level today, it should drop to 143.75.
 
145.31 is a minor support level.  If the IWM breaks under this level, expect it to continue lower.

TLT:  

Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58 **
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02 
Major level: 115.63 
Minor level: 115.24
Minor level: 114.45 
Major level: 114.06 
Minor level: 113.67 

The TLT closed at 118.19.  If the TLT did hit the 118.75 level.  And it cleared the midband on the daily chart which is 117.82.  Watch to see if the TLT can hold the midband.

120.31 is minor resistance on the upside.  And 117.97 should be minor support.

GLD:  

Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41 
Major level: 115.63 
Minor level: 114.85 **
Minor level: 113.28 
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38 

The GLD closed at 117.14.  The next minor level is 117.97.  Two closes above 117.97 and the GLD should test 118.75.  Technical resistance is at 117.73.

On the downside, 116.41 is minor support.  And watch the 117.97 level on the upside.  I would expect resistance there.  

XLE: 

Minor level: 72.66  
Major level: 71.88 
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53 
Major level: 68.75 
Minor level: 67.97 
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85 **
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50

The XLE closed at 64.43.  The XLE got to within 50 cents of the 62.50 level.

64.06 is minor support. If this can hold, the XLE should bounce.  Daily trend is bearish, so a rally would be a bounce in a bear market.

FXY:

Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 
Major level: 85.16 
Minor level: 84.97 
Minor level: 84.58 **
Major level: 84.38 <
Minor level: 84.18 
Minor level: 83.79 
Major level: 83.59 

The FXY closed at 84.74.  Resistance is at 84.77.  So, if the FXY can clear this level, it should continue higher.  The FXY got above it yesterday but closed under it.  Watch to see how it trades around 84.77 today.

84.38 should now be support. 

AAPL:

Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75 <

Apple closed at 174.72.  It was down 1.97 on the day.

171.88 is a minor support level.  If Apple breaks under 171.88, a drop to 162.50 is probable.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: BIIB, GWW, ANTM, DPZ, BDX, CI, AMGN, MCD, CBRL, CLX, WDAY, ADP, JNJ, ADSK, UHS, VRSK, ESRX, UAL

Bearish Stocks: NOC, LLL, UTX, DGX, BG, PZZA,  SLB, GIS, SIMO, EBIX

Be sure to check earnings release dates.