February 12, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium collected - $1.95
X Long at $14
Total Premium collected - $.89
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
ETE Long $14.05
Total Premium collected - $1.05
P Long $13.38
Short Jan $14 Call - $.35
SFLY - Long Feb $40 Put @ $1.90
SFLY - Long Feb $37.50 Put @ $.65
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This is the second time this year I find myself saying it will be good to have a day when the markets are closed.
Perhaps the long weekend will allow investors time to digest the the impact of Janet Yellen's testimony.
The markets are closed this Monday for President's day.
The markets appear set to bounce this morning based on the oversold condition.
The S & P 500 got down to as low as 1,810 before bouncing and closing about 19 points higher than that level.
I did find it amusing receiving an email from one of your fellow members who characterized the move down to 1,812 with this comment ... "Well, you?ve got your war of 1812".
Knowing these levels in advance can be a big help. And, as I mentioned on this week's webinar, we would need a move up to around the 2,000 level for me to think that this down move is over.
Another concern for the overall markets is the fact that the QQQ has confirmed a move lower. Any rally in the QQQ would most likely be turned back at around the 100 level.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Major level - 37.50
Minor level - 32.81
Major level - 31.25
Minor level - 29.68
Minor level - 26.56 *
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19
The VIX came within 45 cents of the 31.25 level.
That is still the objective.
26.56 and 25 should act as support.
S & P 500 Cash Index:
Minor level - 1,890.62
Major level - 1,875.00
Minor level - 1,859.38 *
Minor level - 1,828.12
Major level - 1,812.50
Minor level - 1,796.88
Minor level - 1,765.62
Major level - 1,750.00
The S & P bounced off the 1,812 level yesterday and closed at 1,829.08, just above the 1,828.12 level.
A close today above 1,828.12 and the objective to the upside becomes 1,875.
1,859 should be resistance.
Still oversold and trading under the bottom band on the daily chart.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.35
Minor level - 100.78
Major level - 100.00
Minor level - 99.21
Minor level - 97.66
Major level - 96.88 *
Minor level - 96.09
Major level - 93.75
Major level - 90.63
95.31 is a minor support level. And 98.44 should be resistance.
Like the S & P, the QQQ is oversold on it's daily chart.
TLT:
Major level - 137.50
Minor level - 136.71
Minor level - 132.03 *
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 128.91 *
Major level - 128.13
Minor level - 127.34
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125.00
Objective should be to 137.50.
Lower levels should act as support.
Way over bought as evidenced by the spike above the upper band on the daily chart.
Should pull back today with a push in the markets.
GLD:
Major level - 121.88
Major level - 118.75
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 113.28 *
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Took out the 115.63 objective and closed at 119.06.
Lower levels should act as support. This move has been too fast and should result in a strong pullback.
XLE:
Major level - 59.38
Minor level - 58.60
Minor level - 57.03
Major level - 56.25
Minor level - 54.69
Minor level - 53.19
Major level - 53.13 *
Minor level - 51.56
Major level - 50.00
Minor level - 43.75
A reversal off of 53.13 should produce a quick up move.
Oversold and due for a bounce.
The XLE is hanging just above the 53.13. level. If it fails here it should drop to 50.
Same as yesterday expect that it looks like 53.13 is holding.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple closed yesterday 5 cents under the 93.75 level.
Because it is oversold, the ideal scenario would be a bounce up to around the 100 level and then look for the move back down to the 75 -81 level.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: MKC, FXE, WEC, SAFM, AEP TSN, ED, FAST
Bearish Stocks: TSLA, BWLD, ALXN, MNST, PII, BIDU, BDX, VRTX, SWK, GILD, LAD, HAR, TRIP, BABA, Q
Be sure to check earnings release dates.