February 18, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
Orders are "stop on close" unless stated otherwise
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Today's Working Orders
No working Orders
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Stocks...
Nasd 100...3633 is closing support.
EWA...The Aussie shares have been on a tear. 25.18-36 is the closing resistance level.
EWA could retest support @ 24.25 the lowest risk buy zone. Maintaining closes over 24.62 (the Monthly ORH#) is key to more upside.
BHP...has the same chart pattern as EWA. the Monthly ORH # is 67.76.
Closes over 69 should be viewed as price positive.
FXA...short term buy stops remain over 90.89. Electing those buy stops should lead to a test of 92.20.
Nikkei... held it's 200 day mvg avg @ 14,585 last night. A good close over 14,970 is needed to confirm more upside.
Bonds...
30 yr. Bonds...have been holding the breaks. Spending time today over 133.06 can lead to another test of the 200 day mvg avg @ 133.29
Italian 10 yr.... has elected the buy stops over the 2010 high in the futures of 119.14. (new 4 year lows in rates). Short term, 120 will be a huge hurdle.
Bunds...need a close today over 143.85 for rates to start another leg lower. The monthly pattern remains positive with closes under 141.20 needed for a move to higher rates.
FX...
AUD/USD...short term buy stops are @ 90.87. Electing those stops will have us looking for a test of 91.30 followed by 92.
90.70 is today's ORH #.
EUR/AUD...151.17 is today's ORL #
This pattern targets the 149.85 sell stops. 149.40 is closing support and the closing downside pivot for much lower targets.
AUD/JPY...92.85 is resistance. All new closing strength over 93.10 is needed for more upside. This cross has a potential double top @ 93.02.
USD/JPY...still needs over 103.00 (under 97.00 Futures) to gain downside momentum.
Commodities...
OIL... 99.65 is today's 200 day mvg avg support zone. 101.75 should be resistance and an exit zone for any longs the first time up.
Silver...support is 2103-20.86. The daily RSI is very overbought.? 22.20-40 is weekly resistance.
Gold...1304 will be closing support. A move into the 1290's the first time down should be viewed as a low risk buying opportunity.
Soybeans...keep it simple. Day traders should use the weekly close as your pivot.
Natgas...the price action around 5.72 should be monitored for a possible right shoulder on a daily head & shoulders formation. Price rejection here will attract many short term top pickers.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
Equity traders, the Spu/Bond spread has been your friend. It currently sits @ it's 50 day mvg avg. This level will dictate the next wiggle.
Let Chicago and New York open up to decide the next move.
Spu's...look for 20 points in either direction. Let the weekly close and the opening ranges dictate the direction.
Yen has been highly correlated to the Nikkei (Nikkei up= weak Yen), however it would not be wise to sell weakness in the Yen with a Risk off board during the U.S. session.
Opening Range Time Frame Trading again today.
For Glossary of terms and abbreviations click here.