February 19, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium collected - $1.95
X Long at $14
Total Premium collected - $.89
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
ETE Long $14.05
Total Premium collected - $1.05
P Long $13.38
Short Jan $14 Call - $.35
SFLY - Long Feb $40 Put @ $1.90
SFLY - Long Feb $37.50 Put @ $.65
KMI Long at $14.82
KMI - Short Feb 19th - $15 call @ $.48
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There are two positions that expire today. The first is the short $15 call on KMI. KMI is trading $3 in the money, so the calls should be exercised.
Leave them alone and your broker will execute the sale for you. This works out to a 4.5% return for six days.
The second position is the long puts on SFLY.
The stock finally started to break late yesterday. If it can follow through on the downside, I will issue an alert to close the positions.
After three strong bullish days, the markets took a bit of a breather yesterday.
The S & P 500 actually formed an inside day, which usually leads to a range expansion.
Yesterday also had a divergence. A divergence in the fact that both the S & P and the VIX closed to the downside.
This can also mean to expect a range expansion.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Major level - 37.50
Minor level - 32.81
Major level - 31.25
Minor level - 29.68
Minor level - 26.56 *
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Yesterday was the second close under 23.44 for the VIX.
The objective should be down to 18.75.
25 and 23.44 should be resistance at this point.
20.31 is a minor support level to watch to see if the VIX holds support. If it can't, it should drop to 18.75.
S & P 500 Cash Index:
Major level - 2,000.00
Minor level - 1,984.38
Minor level - 1,953.12
Major level - 1,937.50 *
Minor level - 1,921.88
Minor level - 1,890.62 *
Major level - 1,875.00
Minor level - 1,859.38
Minor level - 1,828.12
Major level - 1,812.50
Minor level - 1,796.88
Minor support should be at 1,906.30.
Upside objective is still to 1,9387.50.
Having said that, the S & P 500 needs to reclaim the 1,921.88 level today because a close under that level would force it dowwn to 1,875.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.35
Minor level - 100.78
Major level - 100.00
Minor level - 99.21
Minor level - 97.66
Major level - 96.88
Yesterday's high was within 30 cents of the 103.13 level.
100.78 and 100 should act as support.
TLT:
Major level - 137.50
Minor level - 136.71
Minor level - 135.16
Major level - 134.38
Minor level - 133.60
Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91
Major level - 128.13
The 128.13 level held as support and the TLT closed at 130.90.
Support at 130.46 and 129.
GLD:
Major level - 121.88
Major level - 118.75
Major level - 115.63 *
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
115.63 was strong support for the GLD and it closed to the upside by almost 3 points.
The level above 118.75 is 119.53. Two closes above that level and the objective becomes 121.88.
XLE:
Minor level - 60.16
Major level - 59.38
Minor level - 58.60
Minor level - 57.03 *
Major level - 56.25 *
Minor level - 54.69
Minor level - 53.19
Major level - 53.13
The XLE could NOT close above 57.03 yesterday.
A pullback to 56.25 should be likely.
To move lower, it will need two closes under 54.69.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple hit a high of 98.89 before pulling back yesterday.
98.43 is downside level, so if it closes under that level today, it should drop to 94.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: PNRA, CLX, MKC, DLR, AWK, TSN, MO, RAI, DF, GDOT
Bearish Stocks: GS, BA, MOB, ASML, TSO, AGU, TEVA, GPI, RHI, LNC, SKT
Be sure to check earnings release dates.