February 19, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
 
ASNALong at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65

RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70

RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.26

NLS Long at $7.66

VALE Long at $11.85
Premium Collected - $0.30
VALE Short Feb 22nd - $12 Call @ $0.30
.........................................................................................

Friday you should have closed out the long call position on OI. This is one of those deals where we were essentially right on direction, but wrong on the timing. But, the loss is mitigated some because we traded short calls against the long call position.

The other position for last Friday was the short calls on RIG. RIG started the day about 35 cents under the $9 strike but managed to rally to trade just above the $9 strike.

It ended up settling at $8.93 or 7 cents under the strike. This means you keep your shares and book the profit on the calls that expired. I will probably suggest you sell another round this week. Look for a separate alert.

The market made a strong push on Friday. For the day, the S & P 500 closed 29.87 points higher. It closed the day at 2,775.60.

The market has now pushed up from the midband. The midband is now 2,732.74, so Friday closed about 43 points above it.

This will now suggest that the midband should be support on a pullback. And that the likely upside objective for the market will be to the upper band. The upper band is 2,940.91.

So, to hit the upper band, the S & P 500 has about 165 points to go.

I mentioned a few days ago when the market was sitting on the midband that the move to the upper band or to the lower band was about the same. The key is which way will it break out. And it certainly looks like the break is to the upside.

Friday's close was also the first close above the minor 2,753.93 level. This now suggests that if the S & P 500 closes above 2,753.93 today, the upside objective should be to 2,812.50.

And this also suggests that the minor 2,753.93 level should be support on a pullback.

Support from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,768 area.

For the week, the S & P 500 formed a strong bullish bar. The week closed 67.72 higher.

I suspect the only bearish interpretation from last week was that the range for the week was about 21 points below the weekly average true range.

The support level from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,740 to 2,744 area.

Earnings continue this week.

Wednesday after the close, we will hear from NTES.

And Thursday after the close, we will hear from BIDU and OLED.

Wednesday at 2:00 EST we will hear from the Fed.

And as you know, this is a short trading week with all markets closed yesterday.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50

The VIX closed at 14.91. For the day it was down 1.31.

The next minor level is 14.85. Two closes under 14.85 and the VIX should drop to 12.50.

15.63 should offer resistance. And the minor 15.23 level as well.

If the VIX can stay under 15.23, I would expect a drop to 14.06.

SPX:

Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10

The key now is to see if the S & P 500 can close above 2,753.93. If it can, it should move up to 2,812.50.

Minor support is at 2,763.70. If that level cannot hold, I would expect 2,751.50 to hold.

Short term charts remain bullish.

QQQ:

Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69

The QQQ closed at 171.94. The upside objective is now 175.

172.66 is minor resistance. If the QQQ clears this level, it should head higher.

171.88 should be major support as well. 170.70 is minor support.

IWM:

Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19

The IWM closed at 156.22. The IWM managed to close just above the midband which is 156.09.

Watch to see if the IWM can clear 156.25. If it can, a run to 175 is possible.

The IWM has been the laggard. It was the last market to close above its midband.

The upper band is 181.45. 155.08 is minor support.

TLT:

Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49 **
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75

The TLT closed at 121.98. This keeps the TLT back above the major 121.88 level.

121.68 is a short term support level.

If the TLT can break above 122.27, look for it to head higher.

GLD:

Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22 **
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63

The GLD closed at 124.80. Friday's high was exactly on the 125 level which had been our objective.

124.41 is minor support.

XLE:

Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38

The XLE closed at 66.12. Now that the XLE has cleared 65.63, look for support at that level.

62.50 should offer major support. Technical support is around the 64 area.

FXY:

Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97

The FXY closed at 86.37. It was flat on the day. The FXY appears to be heading back to test the midband from below. The midband is 86.75.

A move up to 87.11 could indicate this pullback is over.

However, short term charts remain bearish. And the daily chart is also bearish. This would suggest resistance at the 86.72 level.

AAPL:

Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00

Apple closed Friday at 170.42. At this point, I am expecting a move up to 175.

168.75 should still be strong support. If it fails at 168.75, I would not expect a drop under 162.50. 170.31 is minor support.

Biased for a move up. Continuing to look for an entry.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: CMG, CHTR, AVGO, NOW, COST, ZBRA, ADSK, CRM, CLX, ADP, EW, RHT, AAP, DECK, DATA, LLY, DG, KMB

Bearish Stocks: NTES, TTWO, GT, FOSL, URBN

Be sure to check earnings release dates.