February 20, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
Orders are "stop on close" unless stated otherwise
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Today's Working Orders
Buy 25 Contracts... 28 FEB 36.50 USO Puts on the opening.
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Stocks...
Nasd 100...3633 is closing support.
Spu's...price recovery and a close over 1832 will lead to a test of the high. A failure @ 1832 (resistance) and a close below 1800 will lead to a test of 1730 again.
SSO...shows the same pattern as the Spu's. A close below 99.10 is needed to increase downside momentum.
EWA...support and the downside pivot is 24.68. Closing below 24.55 would have me wait to reestablish a long Australian equity position.
Yesterday's EWA U.S. session saw the same pattern as it's U.S. counterpart (Spu), an ORL day.
PCLN...sell stops lie @ 1269. Sustained price action below this level would have me looking for an initial 30 dollar break. This would be price negative the NASDAQ.
TSLA...anything into the 220's should be an exit zone for longs. This is also a place for the shorts to give it a go with a tight stop.
A retest of 204 would be a good first hold #. This has the potential for an earnings high and a good sell off with the general board Risk Off
2/18/14...
VIX...I like being long Vix in here for insurance, however you're looking at March options which are pricey.
Long a 15/18 call spread for 55 cents seems a reasonable way to buy some downside insurance.
VIX...16.60 is resistance and the upside pivot. Closing over 17.23 will lead to a test of the recent highs of 21.44.
BHP...needs to set up again. meaning this name is in retrace mode with the precious metals. 67.40 is today's initial support.
GDXJ...support starts @ the 200 day mvg avg @ 39.38-38.35.? Closing below 38.35 would signal an end to this leg up in the Junior Miners.
Bonds...
30 yr. Bonds...are the only place to hide when the world goes Risk Off.
132.20 low would be a good match (low risk buy #) with a rebound rally in the Equity Indices today.
The upside breakout is over yesterday's high @ the 200 day mvg. avg. 133.29.
FX...
EUR/USD... 137.75-90 is resistance and the upside closing pivot.
AUD/USD... 89.90-90.10 will act as the pivot for a figure in either direction.
EUR/AUD...154 will be resistance and today's upside closing pivot.
Commodities...
OIL...I'm looking for today to be the high for at least a retrace of a couple of dollars.
This is the type of set up that could turn into something more.
USO...the cheapest most cost effective way to buy downside is via the 28 FEB 14 USO Puts. We're going to buy a partial position in the 36.50 puts when the options open.
These closed at .25 cents yesterday. We'll look to add more in the afternoon.
Those of you that want more time can buy the 7 March 14 strike giving you an additional week for 10 cents.
Natgas...has been a highly technical trade. 6.40-50 is the initial swing count for this wiggle up. This is an exit zone for longs the first time up.
Novice investors should not be trading this contract.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
Oil will be a quick trade if it's going to work. That's why I picked the options expiring @ month end.
The strike has a chance of getting into the money in a hurry.
Sentiment is all one way (which is up).
This is a cost effective way to pick an interim high. You know exactly how much you can lose!
Yesterday the pit session SPU/BOND double topped at the 50 day mvg avg. The all session put in an ORL day. These are price negative patterns until violated.
NASDAQ has been the leader. It held a first attempt into the 3630's.
Today into tomorrow will determine the next move.
Bears...look for failed rallies. Your Buy stop for shorting the Spu's is 1832. Once maintaining above, forget about it.
Bulls...be very patient, the chart patterns currently say no.
Opening Range Time Frame Trading again today. Let the market dictate the direction.
Short Term View...
Keep trading to make money. The opportunity will be in individual names.
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical's.
We are neutral Equities.
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