February 29, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium collected - $1.95
X Long at $14
Total Premium collected - $.89
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
ETE Long $14.05
Total Premium collected - $1.05
P Long $13.38
Short Jan $14 Call - $.35
..............................
Last week was the second consecutive higher close for all major markets.
The last time that happened this year, the markets gave back all those gains after the second up week.
Will that happen this week?
I don't know, but it is possible.
The main difference this time is that the S & P 500 and the DOW have taken out their prior intervening tops, which is a bullish sign.
Only the NASD has failed to take out their prior top at this point.
The bearish scenario is that all major markets had broken under their lower extreme bollinger band on their daily charts. You can usually expect a retest of the lower band at some point.
This Friday is the Non Farm Payroll at 8:30 EST.? This will be closely watched as market participants try and weigh whether the Fed will raise rates four times in 2016 as they have indicated.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Minor level - 29.68
Minor level - 26.56 *
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19
Minor level - 14.06
Major level - 12.50
The VIX is right back to the 18.75 objective as previously identified.
It seems to be consolidating right on that level.? To move higher, the VIX will need two closes above 20.31.
I would expect support at the minor 17.19 level.
S & P 500 Cash Index:
Major level - 2,000.00
Minor level - 1,984.38
Minor level - 1,953.12 *
Major level - 1,937.50 *
Minor level - 1,921.88
Minor level - 1,890.62
Major level - 1,875.00
Minor level - 1,859.38
Minor level - 1,828.12
Major level - 1,812.50
The S & P will still need two closes above 1,953.12 to confirm a move up to 2,000. Friday, the S & P closed under that level at, 1,948.05.
Short term support should now be at 1,937.50 and 1,929.70.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.35
Minor level - 100.78
Major level - 100.00
Minor level - 99.21
Minor level - 97.66
Major level - 96.88
The QQQ's closed Friday at 103.43, just above the 103.13 major support level.
Two closes above 103.91 and it should move up to 106.25.
Support at 102.35.
TLT:
Major level - 137.50
Minor level - 136.71
Minor level - 135.16
Major level - 134.38
Minor level - 133.60
Minor level - 132.03 *
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91
Major level - 128.13
The TLT pulled back, as anticipated. It closed Friday at 130.41, down 1.27.
A close today under 130.46 and it should drop back to 128.13.
Look for resistance at 131.25.
GLD:
Major level - 121.88 *
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53 *
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.96
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
To move higher, the GLD will have to close above 117.96 today. If it doesn't, it could drop down to 115.
The GLD is actually very close to moving into an uptrend formation on the daily chart. I remind that this has not happened in a few years.
XLE:
Minor level - 60.16
Major level - 59.38
Minor level - 58.60
Minor level - 57.03 *
Major level - 56.25 *
Minor level - 54.69
Minor level - 53.19
Major level - 53.13
A close today above 57.03 and the XLE should try and move up to 59.
Support should be at 56.25.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
A close today above 95.31 and Apple should try and hit 100.
100 is still a key resistance level.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: PNRA, BCR, TWC, TFX, KMB, JNJ, MKC, EW, D, MO, GIS, RAI, CRAY, CAG, DFT
Bearish Stocks: VRX, ALNY, AIG, WDC, RH, ABCO, SCTY, KKR, ARLP, AEL, ALJ
Be sure to check earnings release dates.