February 4, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
APPL Long????????????? ? ?? ????? 520.70
Orders are "stop on close" unless stated otherwise.
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Today's Working Orders
No working orders
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Stocks...
Spu's...can still print into the 1720's and rebound. Price action early will dictate the day.
MSFT...put in an ORL day. Sustained price action and a close below 36.30 will signal a deeper correction. First stop would be a test of 34.60.
GOOG...1121-22 is a pivotal level.
AIG...there are resting sell stops below 46.81. The level has the potential for a weekly double bottom. Closing below 46.40 will lead to a much deeper correction.
IBB...put in an ORL day. 237 is support and the downside pivot.
KBE...30.48 is the 200 day mvg avg. 30 would have to hold to avoid lower.
XLV & XLK...seem to be the two best candidates for sectors bottom fishing
Bonds...
30 yr. Bonds...the long term macro Buy Stops are 135.28
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FX...
AUD/USD...89.22 is resistance. Aussie is attempting an outside reversal day and so are the relevant crosses.
AUD/JPY...90.43 is resistance and the closing upside pivot.
EUR/AUD...151.80 ish is 1st Fib support.
USD/JPY...99.65 (100.35-40 Futures) is still the low risk level for a reaction trade. on a Monthly chart. 100.00 is the 200 day mvg avg.
100.77 shows a daily double bottom with stops below ( above 99.30 Futures)
Commodities...
Oil...96.00 is support. Below, look for 95.25 with resting sell stops below.
General Comments orValuable Insight
Every trade is the same trade right now. Bonds,Spu's and Yen... It's either Risk On or Risk Off.
The lows in the Spu's matching the high in the Bonds and a myriad of single instruments, have initially all gone too far without some price consolidation.
Spu's and many single stocks to the downside and the Bonds to the upside.
There are a myriad of single Stocks @ or just below their 200 day mvg avg.
The lowest risk time to look for a contra trend trade will be after the NYSE close today.? Posted 12:33 CDT 2/3/14.
We've come into an area where you buy before you sell in the Spu's?on a hard break early.
I canceled the Risk On orders yesterday because I needed to see just how low we could go during the day session.
When the Lemmings are in Full Flight it's always prudent to step to the side so as not to get swept off the cliff.
Most lows look descent for a bounce into mid week.
I'd be very cautious of a new low from yesterday after the U.S. opens.?Possible Bear Trap.
A lower low would have longs who didn't puke yesterday doing so today.
Use the NYSE opening range for your short term pivot today.
Many instruments are oversold or have come into weekly support. Spu's,Nasd & Bonds have come into my target # sets.
I remain skeptical that this is more than a bounce, however we now have to see how high this bounce can go.
If you take the time to look through the various time frames ( daily views vs. qtrly and semi annual charts) you'll see a market that is in need of an oversold bounce, however you also see the potential for more downside.
Some trades are right for everybody and other trades are best suited for those that are flexible and better equipped to manage risk.
If a client is asking me questions about a capital flow trade I'm canceling during the heat of battle, because I've determined the that the possibility of price overrun is too great, that Investor is Ill equipped to be doing the trade in the first place.
We're looking at the buy levels in the Equity Indices for a short term bounce only!
This market will take time to bottom, which can take another couple of weeks.
Short Term View...
Keep trading to make money. The opportunity will be in individual names.
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical s.
We are neutral Equities. The next several weeks are setting up to be a big trading affair.
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