February 7, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
APPL Long????????????? ? ?? ????? 520.70
Orders are "stop on close" unless stated otherwise.
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Today's Working Orders
Sell?Yen Futures @?100.35
Buy?USD/JPY @?99.65?
?This is an off the market dream order with no stop until we get a fill.
What to do if you get filled...
After getting filled selling 100.35's and a downside reaction of 75 points, you cover half the trade @ (99.60).
Place your buy order only after you get filled. Meaning the market has to trade 100.36 JYAH Futures before you place the buy order.?
Things will be moving very fast if this order gets elected.?There will not be time to?put out?separate trade alerts.
You'll be responsible for paying for the trade on the first reaction off that high if filled.
The odds of this occurrence seem remote. It's a lotto ticket.
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Stocks...?
Nasd 100...3500 +- a couple is the closing qtrly pivot.
EWP...38.67 is the the weekly ORH# for Spain. I need to see a close over 39 to think there is any upside.
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Bonds...
30 yr. Bonds...132.01 is the weekly ORL # and weekly mvg avg support. An overrun on a good jobs report could lead to a 131.13 extreme.
134.15 is today's 200 day with macro buy stops @ 135.28.
Any rally into the low to mid 136.00 handle, on a disappointing #, is a low risk sell zone.
TBT...72.33 is the matching?ORL #. The bigger Fib resistance and weekly mvg avg resistance comes in @ 74.20.
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FX...
USD/JPY...needs new strength over 102.30 (under 97.75 Futures) to attempt 103.00 (97.08 Futures)
We're going to put in an order to sell Yen @ 100.35 Futures today.
This is app 99.65 USD/JPY. It would take a Full 2 point rally in the Bonds to see this level, which is into the macro BUY stop zone just above the 200 day mvg avg.
I'd want to see this order get filled early vs later in the day.
GBP/JPY & CAD/JPY?seem to be?the lowest risk crosses for a short Yen strategy.
Long those crosses would = a Risk on Trade.
It's going to be active... driven by the 30 yr. Bond Futures.
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Commodities...
Gold...the near term sell stops are below 1250. The buy stops are above 1275.
I wouldn't be surprised if both stop sets were elected by the HFT boys going into the data release. (Clean out the decks both up and down)
1311 is resistance @ the 200 day mvg avg..
Resting macro sell stops are @ 1237.50
Silver...21.15 is the 200 day mvg avg.
The pattern looks sideways. Sustained price action over 2040-50 is needed for higher.
Natgas...a close today under 4.72 would put in an ORL week confirming the high in Natty.
Despite being 30 below here in "Frostbite Falls"....Natty is attempting this ORL pattern.
General Comments orValuable Insight
Once again unemployment data brings the Bonds, Yen and precious metals into focus.
Or this months edition of "Beat the Bots"
7:30 CDT usually has the Bonds move close to 2 full points either up or down.
Lately it's been up.
Bonds up = an Initial Yen & Gold rally
Bonds down...Just the opposite.
Equities usually take some time to digest the news.
At the end of the day investors will only be looking at whether the U.S. Indices closed higher or lower on the week.
Short Term View...
Keep trading to make money. The opportunity will be in individual names.
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical s.
We are neutral Equities. The next several weeks are setting up to be a big trading affair.
The 30 yr. Bond Futures will be the least volatile way to play a Risk On?bias. The Bonds have led from the first week of the year
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